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Economic Implications of Joe Biden’s Presidency on Nigeria, Other Emerging Economies

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Joe Biden Economic Impliccations on Nigeria

What Nigeria and Other Emerging Economies Should Expect From Joe Biden’s Presidency

As Joseph Robinette Biden Jr., the former Vice President and President-elect of the United States of America, prepares to take over the world’s largest economy from President Trump on January 20, 2021, Investors King looks into what Nigeria and other emerging economies should expect following four years of unnecessary China-US trade war, US-Iran attacks, US-North Korea nuclear war declaration and back and forth with Russia on US election meddling.

Since Donald Trump became the President of the United States on January 20, 2016, he has worked hard to up global risk, increase economic uncertainties and ensure global economy does not expand through China trade war and the disapproval of a deal that took six world powers 12 years to sign with Iran. Like those were not enough, Donald Trump immediately started threatening a fellow psycho, Kim Jong-un of North Korea, with a bigger nuclear button, creating an intense and extremely challenging business environment in recent times.

The record-increase in global economic uncertainties and risks led to capital outflow from emerging economies as investors became wary of impending doom that could erode their capital, especially knowing that emerging economies do not have the structure to protect investment funds once catastrophe struck.

In the first quarter of 2017, just about a year in the office, Nigeria’s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) plunged by $640.61 million or 41.36 percent from $1.55 billion posted in the final quarter of 2016. This decline continues throughout the year despite the Central Bank of Nigeria introducing Investors and Exporters Forex Window to bridge the gap between exchange rates offered by the apex bank, bureau de change operators and on the black market.

According to a United Nations report, Nigeria’s FDI declined by 43 percent in 2018 to $2 billion, partly because of MTN tax issues with the Federal Government and Trump’s ‘shithole’ comment that demarketed Nigerian assets and discouraged potential investors from looking the Nigerian way in the same year that foreign investment inflow into sub-Saharan Africa rose by 13 percent to $32 billion.

Donald Trump’s poor attitude towards Africa was the main reason African nations increased their Chinese loans and other financial supports that has now distanced the continent from the world’s largest economy. One of the jobs of Joe Biden would be to prove the United States’ commitment to the continent or watch American position in Africa further relegated.

Likely Implications of Joe Biden Presidency on Nigeria and Emerging Nations

As widely expected, Joe Biden’s calm personality and diplomatic nature could help bridge the division created in the upper house — control by the Republicans — and unite US lawmakers for one specific purpose, national building.

Investors King is anticipating that this unity, coupled with the fact that Democrats control the lower house would help speed up the approval of almost $2 trillion stimulus package as the world’s largest economy looks to revive businesses battered by COVID-19 and protect jobs while simultaneously creating new ones.

On the global front, Joe Biden would likely seek an amicable trade agreement with the second-largest economy, China and look to ease global tension and support the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, United Nations and other global organisations on growth and at curbing or securing COVID-19 cure.

With global tension and uncertainties predicted to subside with the exit of Donald Trump, global investors will start looking into emerging markets with the ability to grow over two percent and with lesser risk. And not just focus on the United States as a safe haven to protect their funds.

Charles Robertson, a Chief Economist at Renaissance Capital (RenCap), said Blackrock’s fixed income section that manages over $2.6 trillion in assets have said they will invest more in emerging economies. To put this in perspective, Africa’s total GDP is $2 trillion, therefore, Blackrock alone could be dumping over $100 billion in fixed income on the continent next year.

Robertson said “The stock of Africa’s Eurobonds only topped $100 billion in 2018, and even if it is only Blackrock’s actively managed part of the business more like $2 trillion in all asset classes (perhaps $700 billion in fixed income), that starts to shift to Emerging Markets this could be very helpful.

“Our base case is that Foreign Direct Investment will stop being a net positive for the US due to Trump’s defeat, and portfolio flows will also go to EM, and together, these will drive the $ gradually weaker in coming years,” he said.

For Nigeria, this will means more forex inflow to augment weak foreign revenue generation amid low oil prices and weak global demand. This will further expand Nigeria’s economic productivity given its import-dependent nature and lack of alternative foreign revenue generation.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Nigeria’s N3.3tn Power Sector Rescue Package Unveiled

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power project

President Bola Tinubu has given the green light for a comprehensive N3.3 trillion rescue package.

This ambitious initiative seeks to tackle the country’s mounting power sector debts, which have long hindered the efficiency and reliability of electricity supply across the nation.

The unveiling of this rescue package represents a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s quest for a sustainable energy future. With power outages being a recurring nightmare for both businesses and households, the need for decisive action has never been more urgent.

At the heart of the rescue package are measures aimed at settling the staggering debts accumulated within the power sector. President Tinubu has approved a phased approach to debt repayment, encompassing cash injections and promissory notes.

This strategic allocation of funds aims to provide immediate relief to power-generating companies (Gencos) and gas suppliers, while also ensuring long-term financial stability within the sector.

Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Minister of Power, revealed details of the rescue package at the 8th Africa Energy Marketplace held in Abuja.

Speaking at the event themed, “Towards Nigeria’s Sustainable Energy Future,” Adelabu emphasized the government’s commitment to eliminating bottlenecks and fostering policy coherence within the power sector.

One of the key highlights of the rescue package is the allocation of funds from the Gas Stabilisation Fund to settle outstanding debts owed to gas suppliers.

This critical step not only addresses the immediate liquidity concerns of gas companies but also paves the way for enhanced cooperation between gas suppliers and power generators.

Furthermore, the rescue package includes provisions for addressing the legacy debts owed to power-generating companies.

By utilizing future royalties and income streams from the gas sub-sector, the government aims to provide a sustainable solution that incentivizes investment in power generation capacity.

The announcement of the N3.3 trillion rescue package comes amidst ongoing efforts to revitalize Nigeria’s power sector.

Recent initiatives, including tariff adjustments and regulatory reforms, underscore the government’s determination to overcome longstanding challenges and enhance the sector’s effectiveness.

However, challenges persist, as highlighted by Barth Nnaji, a former Minister of Power, who emphasized the need for a robust transmission network to support increased power generation.

Nnaji’s advocacy for a super grid underscores the importance of infrastructure development in ensuring the reliability and stability of Nigeria’s power supply.

In light of these developments, stakeholders have welcomed the unveiling of the N3.3 trillion rescue package as a decisive step towards transforming Nigeria’s power sector.

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Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

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Nigeria's Inflation Rate - Investors King

Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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