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Stock Investors Pricing-in Joe Biden Win Ahead of U.S Presidential Election

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Wall Street New York Stock Exchange

A Biden Win is Priced-in, Unusually Markets Seem to Support ‘Blue Wave’ Victory

Stock markets are already pricing-in a Biden win in the U.S. presidential election in 11 days – and, against conventional wisdom, a Democrat victory will be welcomed by investors.

The assessment from Nigel Green, the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and fintech organisations, comes as President Trump and Joe Biden faced off in their final 2020 presidential debate on Thursday night.

The candidates sparred over the coronavirus pandemic, the stock market, the economy, immigration and foreign policy.

Mr Green comments: “The last debate was certainly more civil than the previous encounter, but it didn’t add much more to what we already know about the candidates’ personal and policy differences.

“Therefore, we can expect the markets to continue pricing-in a Biden win, something which has begun in earnest in recent weeks.

“This has been evidenced by investors piling into renewables, industrials and other sectors that could benefit from Joe Biden sweeping into power on a ‘blue wave’ victory.”

He continues: “Conventional wisdom suggests a Democratic win would be negative for markets due to higher taxes, more regulation, and higher spending amongst other things.

“But there’s nothing conventional this time around.”

The deVere CEO notes: “The massive extra stimulus of up to $3trn wanted by Democrats in January would buoy the markets and would have investors think about a broader-based economic recovery – rather than a narrower, tech-heavy one.

“Cyclical stocks are likely to outperform on the back of this fiscal stimulus and the inflationary expectations.

“This scenario would prompt most analysts to upgrade U.S. economic growth forecasts.”

He adds: “In addition, there is likely to be a cooling down of tensions with China on trade and other issues which have been important sources of turbulence on stock markets over the last four years.

“More stability and certainty from the White House will be championed by investors.”

Mr Green concludes: “Wall Street does have a hit-and-miss track record of predicting the election outcomes, but for now markets are betting on Biden – and, unusually, they seem to favour a significant Democrat win.”

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

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Insider Dealing: Flour Mills MD Invest N91.642 Million in Flour Mills

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flour mills posts 184% increase in PAT

Following the purchase of 1.95 million shares in Flour Mills of Nigeria a few days ago, the Group Managing Director, Paul Miyonmide Gbededo, has purchased another 1.34 million shares at N27.75k per share.

The company stated in a disclosure form released through the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE).

Mr. Gbededo bought an additional 1,336,028 shares valued at N37,074,777 on November 19, 2020 at the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) in Lagos. Meaning, Gbededo invested an additional N37,074,777 into Flour Mills in what could be said as a show of confidence in the company’s future.

This brings the Managing Director’s total purchase in November to 3,284,867 shares at a combined value of N91,642,269. See the details below.

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Insider Dealing: Fidelity Bank’s GM Purchases 1 Million Shares in the Bank

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Fidelity Bank

The General Manager and Regional Bank Head, Fidelity Bank Plc, Mr. Kenneth Opara, has purchased 1 million shares of Fidelity Bank Plc.

The bank stated in a disclosure statement forwarded to the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) on Friday.

Opara carried out the purchase in two different transactions on November 25, 2020 at the Nigerian Stock Exchange trading flour in Lagos, Nigeria.

The General Manager bought 6,000 shares at N2.78 per unit and another 994,000 at N2.79 per share. Bringing total purchase to 1 million shares at an average share price of N2.78. See the details below.

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Bank Stocks Top Charts Amid Strong Third Quarter Performance

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Zenith Bank

Bank stocks top both gainers’ and top traded stocks’ charts on Tuesday as investors at the Nigerian Stock Exchange continues to increase their holdings of banks’ stocks amid strong third-quarter financial results.

Zenith Bank led the most traded stocks for a second consecutive day on Tuesday following a declaration of  N509 billion gross earnings and N177 billion profit after tax in the first nine months of the year.

Investors traded 71,933,841 shares of Zenith Bank valued at N1,730,151,404.20 during the trading hours of Tuesday.

Transcorp, the only non-bank stock on the top five trades, followed Zenith Bank with 37,172,526 shares worth N32,853,263.27.

Guaranty Trust Bank Plc, Access Bank and United Bank for Africa (UBA) exchanged 30,003,182 units, 29,549,235 units and 29,332,033 units estimated at N1,022,126,997.60, N243,311,726.70 and N236,303,261.20, respectively.

Investors exchanged a total of 365.414 million shares valued at N4.692 billion in 6,325 deals on Tuesday to return the bourse to the green zone after two days of consecutive declines.

The Nigerian Stock Exchange market capitalisation rose by N114 billion from N17.829 trillion it closed on Monday to N17.943 trillion on Tuesday. While the NSE All-Share Index gained 220.82 index points or 0.06 percent to 34,349.56 index points it settled on Tuesday, up from 34,119.74 index points on Monday.

Stanbic IBTC Bank led gainers with N2.8 or 7.08 percent gain to finish the day at N42.35 per share. See the details below.

Top Trades 

Symbols Volume Value
ZENITHBANK 71,933,841 N1,730,151,404.20
TRANSCORP 37,172,526 N32,853,263.27
GUARANTY 30,003,182 N1,022,126,997.60
ACCESS 29,549,235 N243,311,726.70
UBA 29,332,033 N236,303,261.20

Top Gainers

Symbols Last Close Current Change %Change
STANBIC N39.55 N42.35 2.8 7.08%
UBA N7.7 N8.2 0.5 6.49%
ACCESS N7.9 N8.35 0.45 5.70%
FBNH N6.7 N7.15 0.45 6.72%
UBN N5.5 N5.9 0.4 7.27%

Top Losers

Symbols Last Close Current Change %Change
JBERGER N19 N17.3 -1.7 -8.95%
FIDSON N5.4 N4.87 -0.53 -9.81%
GUINNESS N18 N17.5 -0.5 -2.78%
ETERNA N4.61 N4.15 -0.46 -9.98%
UACN N7.95 N7.65 -0.3 -3.77%

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