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OPEC Says Dangote Refinery, Other Smaller Ones in Egypt, Algeria to Threaten Existing Refineries

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Aliko Dangote - Investors King

Dangote Refinery, Other Smaller Ones in Egypt, Algeria to Compete With Existing Refineries

Dangote refinery with 600,000  barrels per day capacity alongside other smaller refineries coming online from Egypt and Algeria are expected to threaten existing refineries in Africa and the rest of the world, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stated.

The cartel disclosed this in its latest 2020 World Oil Outlook report.

OPEC estimated that the world’s refining capacity would increase by 5.2 million barrels per day between 2020 and 2025 based on the ongoing and announced refinery projects.

Significant capacity additions are also expected in Africa in the medium-term period. Additions of new refining capacity are clearly in line with oil demand growth expectations, which show positive trends in most developing countries,” the report stated.

In Africa, the report stated that about 0.8 million barrels per day or 15 percent of the current global volume is the additional refinery capacity expected from Africa.

It said, “The largest project expected to come online is the Dangote refinery in Nigeria in 2022, as well as several smaller projects in Egypt and Algeria.

“This significant increase in refining capacity is somewhat larger than incremental demand in the medium-term and could help to reduce product imports, especially in West Africa.”

The report also noted that in Africa and Latin America there were old inefficient refineries with low utilisation rates.

It said, “The new refining capacities, which are projected to come online in the medium to long-term, may increase pressure on these existing plants with two ways out – either closure or refurbishment.

“Both markets are expected to grow considerably, which would support refurbishment of older plants. However, due to the lack of financing and rising internal competition, some of these plants may be closed in the coming years.”

However, OPEC said the COVID-19 crisis may slow down some refinery projects, therefore shifting commissioning dates.

Furthermore, the uncertainty is even higher for projects in the second half of the medium-term period. Consequently, it is possible that some projects expected to go online in the medium-term period may become operational only after 2025,” it added.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

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Economy

COVID-19: IMF Rolls Out $50 Billion Trust Fund, Targets Low-income, Vulnerable Countries

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IMF global - Investors King

The COVID-19 pandemic, no doubt, has had significant economic consequences, especially on low-income and less developed countries.

It is in view of this that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) proposed a $50 billion trust fund to help these low-income and vulnerable middle-income countries build resilience and ensure a sustainable recovery through a Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST), Investors King has learnt.

The RST’s central objective is to provide affordable long-term financing to support countries as they tackle structural challenges.

According to the IMF, broad support from the membership and international partners will further aid in the approval of the RST by the IMF Executive Board before the upcoming Spring Meetings and for it to become fully operational before the end of the year.

Apart from the pandemic, climate change is another long-term challenge that threatens macroeconomic stability and growth in many countries through natural disasters and disruptions to industries, job markets, and trade flows, among others.

Hence, the RST support aims to address macro-critical longer-term structural challenges that entail significant macroeconomic risks to member countries’ resilience and sustainability, including climate change, pandemic preparedness, and digitalization.

The IMF and World Bank staff have worked closely to develop a coordination framework on RST operations on climate risks, building on earlier experience in supporting countries with structural reforms. Similar frameworks with relevant institutions are expected to be developed in the coming months in this and other reform areas.

Meanwhile, to qualify for the RST support, an eligible member would need a package of high-quality policy measures consistent with the RST’s purpose; a concurrent financing or non-financing IMF-supported program with appropriate macroeconomic policies to mitigate risks for borrowers and creditors; and sustainable debt and adequate capacity to repay the Fund.

The RST would be established under the IMF’s power to administer contributor resources, which allows for more flexible terms, notably on maturities, than the terms that apply to the IMF’s general resources.

Consistent with the longer-term nature of balance of payments risks the RST seeks to address, its loans would have much longer maturities than traditional IMF financing.

Specifically, 20-year maturity and a 10-year grace period has been proposed.

 

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FG Suspends Removal of Fuel Subsidy Over Inflation Concerns

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Nigerian petrol station

The Federal Government has suspended plans to remove fuel subsidy by the end of the first half of 2022 over heightened inflation, according to the Minister of Finance, Mrs. Zainab Ahmed.

The Minister made the statement at a meeting with President of the Senate, Sen. Ahmad Lawan, at the National Assembly on Monday.

She said the removal of fuel subsidy at any time this year could escalate inflationary pressure in the country.

“We discovered that practically, there is still heightened inflation and that the removal of subsidy would further worsen the situation and impose more difficulties on the citizenry,” Ahmed said at the meeting.

“Mr. President does not want to do that. What we are now doing is to continue with the ongoing discussions and consultations in terms of putting in place a number of measures.

“One of these include the roll-out of the refining capacities of the existing refineries and the new ones which would reduce the amount of products that would be imported into the country.

“We, therefore, need to return to the National Assembly to now amend the budget and make additional provision for subsidy from July 22 to whatever period that we agreed was suitable for the commencement of the total removal.”

Agusto&Co, a research, credit ratings and credit risk management firm, had projected the same thing in its economic outlook for 2022 sent to clients. The firm had argued that it was impossible for the current administration to remove fuel subsidy given its little political capital.

The firm said no, the FGN can not remove subsidy in full in 2022 because “this is a tough political decision that we believe is best made by a government with a large amount of political capital. Current government has ruled for seven years, has about a year left and has little political capital to expend.”

Augusto further stated that the federal government is not likely to boost infrastructure spending in 2022 “because the ability of government to invest in infrastructure will still be constrained by weak tax revenues and high operating expenses.”

Therefore, it said the government cannot fully fund Nigeria’s 17 trillion budget as its revenue is limited to ₦5 trillion and funding sources are constrained.

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Economy

World-class Lekki Seaport to Start Operations by 2022 Ending

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The total works presently carried out on the Lekki Deep Seaport Project in Lagos have amounted to 80 percent of the completion stage. The proposed world-class seaport has been scheduled to begin port operations by the end of 2022.

 This was revealed during the inspection of the port project construction on Saturday, by the Minister of Transportation, Chibuike Amaechi.

Speaking on the progress of the project, Amaechi stated that in less than five months, a lot of civil work had been done.

He commended the contractors for the work done so far while urging them to speed up the work.

“I want to congratulate you for the very huge progress. By the time we came here, there were no civil works; it was just pure sand. You have tried.

“I am suggesting that if you work day and night you will go far and complete the work before commissioning. If the President sees it, approval will be easier,” Amaechi said.

The minister further stated that prompt completion of the project will enable the government to approve all the necessary processes before the next election, adding that six months into the election, government officials would get busy with politics and would be hardly met in their offices.

He advised that more machines should be deployed to the port to aid output and reduce physical contact.

Also speaking, the Chief Technical Officer of Lekki Port, Steven Heukelom, stated that the ongoing project construction was in place as scheduled.

Heukelom explained that the port dredging and reclamation works had attained 89.93 per cent of completion, Quay Wall 85.65 per cent, Breakwater 79.66 per cent, and the landside infrastructure development 67.82 per cent; all amounting to 80 per cent completion stage approximately.

He mentioned that work had begun on the marine services jetty, which would be used by the Nigerian Ports Authority, NPA for marine services.

He appreciated the Acting Managing Director, Mohammed Bello-Koko for his support and preparations for the seaport operations to kick-start.

Bello-Koko, however, revealed that the NPA has made provision for tug boats and other infrastructure for the smooth operation of the Lekki deep seaport.

Investors King gathered that Tolaram and China Harbour Engineering Company is in charge of the Lekki seaport construction while the Lagos State Government and Nigerian Ports Authority are shareholders in the project company.

The Chief Operating Officer of Lekki Port, Laurence Smith, noted that the company is working tirelessly to deliver the project by the fourth quarter of 2022.

Smith affirmed that after completion, the Lekki seaport would be a world-class port and would be a regional distribution and transhipment hub for the African continent.

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