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The Pound Remains Highly Vulnerable – Despite Recent Gains

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pound

Pound Remains Vulnerable, Says Green

The pound remains highly vulnerable- despite rising sharply in recent days – and families and investors need to avoid complacency about possible significant drops, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organisations.

The warning from Nigel Green, CEO and founder of deVere Group, comes as the pound sterling hits a 12-week high against the euro and new yearly highs against the U.S. dollar.

Mr Green says: “The pound has been on a pretty impressive run lately as investors’ appetite for risk has improved, supported in part by stronger than expected data.

“However, it’s essential that a close eye is kept on the trajectory of the pound as they could be caught off guard if their investment portfolio is not properly diversified.

“Right now, complacency should be avoided amid real and growing concerns that a sell-off could be on the horizon.”

He continues: “The threat of major tax hikes being announced in the UK’s Budget in November, and the stalled Brexit trade negotiations, which are really up against the clock now, are important reasons to remain cautious on the pound.

“Also, the UK started the pandemic with government debt at a higher level than many other G10 nations.  This has grown considerably due to the fiscal support required to protect the economy during the lockdown.

“Against this backdrop, there are valid questions on the longer-term sustainability of the pound’s outperformance so far this quarter.”
A significant drop in the value of the pound would contribute to reducing people’s purchasing power and a drop in living standards, observes Mr Green.

“Weaker sterling means imports are more expensive, with rising prices being passed on to consumers.

“The fall in the pound is good for exports some claim, but it must be remembered that around 50% of UK exports rely on imported components. These will become more expensive as the pound falls in value.

“A low pound is, of course, bad news for British holidaymakers and travellers going abroad, and also expats who receive UK pensions or income from Britain.”

He adds: “In addition, one of the UK’s most important sectors, financial services, will suffer from another knock to the pound because it is built on foreign investment that puts its faith in a strong pound.”

The deVere CEO concludes: “The pound is highly vulnerable with major issues looming that could affect its value.

“These need to be monitored to mitigate risks and to take advantage of the opportunities when they arise.”

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

Naira

Naira Weakens to N1,706 Per Dollar in Black Market, Sells N1,654 Officially

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The Naira weakened to N1,700 against the United States Dollar on the black market on Wednesday and extended this outcome further in the official foreign exchange (FX) market.

In the black market, the Naira lost N12.63 or 0.75 percent against the greenback to close at N1,706.43 to the US Dollar compared to N1,693.80/$1 it closed on Tuesday.

The Naira also fell by 0.06 percent on the US Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) extending the weakening of the local currency which started earlier in the week

The local currency exchanged for the US Dollar at N1,654.09/$1, sliding by N1.07 versus N1,653.02/$1 that it closed at the previous session on Tuesday.

The FX market has been volatile as recent efforts to bring some stability to the market through a series of auctions held by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for official dealers and Bureau de Change (BDCs) have not been able to tackle high seasonal demand.

With the year entering into the last two months, high demand has returned to the market and all eyes will be on what the CBN will do in that regard.

Data showed that there was a decrease in daily supply as the midweek turnover published on the FMDQ Group website stood at $136.68 million indicating that the session’s turnover made a 22.4 percent slide, indicating that there was a drop of $39.47 million compared to $176.15 million that was published in the last trading session.

The Naira also witnessed drops against the Pound Sterling and the Euro. It declined N9.86 on the British currency to wrap the session at N2,147.22/£1 from N2,137.36/£1 that it sold at the previous session.

In the same trend, against the Euro, the Nigerian currency dropped N9.67 and closed at N1,789.93/€1 versus N1,780.26/€1.

The Naira also dropped in its value against the British currency in the black market as it fell by N8.86 to sell at N2,212.37/£1 compared with the preceding session’s N2,203.51/£1 and followed the same pattern against the Euro as it depreciated N5.71 to quote at N1,844.79/€1 versus the previous day’s rate of N1,839.08/€1.

Meanwhile, the local currency further depreciated N3.54 to close at N1,233.01 per Canadian Dollar, compared to Monday’s N1,226.55 per CAD.

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Naira

Naira Strengthens in Parallel Market Amid Official FX Depreciation

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New Naira Notes

The Naira closed strong in the parallel market but weakened further in the official foreign exchange (FX) market as seasonal demand continued to affect the currency despite the fresh sale of FX by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

In the parallel market, the Naira gained N5.17 against the greenback to close at N1,693.80 to the US Dollar compared to N1,698.97/$1 it closed on Monday.

However, the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX), which serves as the official foreign exchange market, showed the Naira recorded a 3.1 percent depreciation against the US Dollar to N1,653.02.

At the previous session on Monday, the Naira closed lower at N1,603.16/$1, indicating a further decrease of N49.86 at the approved market.

A turnover of $176.15 million was on record at the market, according to data from the FMDQ Securities Exchange Limited. This indicated a $183.07 million or 50.9 percent decline versus the $359.22 million quoted recently.

The Naira also gained in its value against the British Pound Sterling in the official market by N9.73 to sell at N2,203.51/£1 compared with the preceding session’s N2,213.24/£1 and followed the same pattern against the Euro as it appreciated N6.21 to quote at N1,839.08/€1 versus the previous day’s rate of N1,845.29/€1.

Meanwhile, the local currency depreciated 74 Kobo to close at N1,226.56 per Canadian Dollar, compared to Monday’s N1,225.82 per CAD.

At the official market, the Naira witnessed gains against the British Currency and the Euro in the Tuesday session.

On the Pound Sterling, the local currency made a gain of N16.54 to wrap the session at N2,137.36/£1 from N2,153.90/£1 that it sold at the previous session and against the Euro, the Nigerian currency closed at N1,780.26/€1 versus N1,791.06/€1, indicating an N10.80 appreciation.

The CBN has not injected fresh FX sales into the market for yet another week after it promised to always prop the market.

Speaking in the US on Tuesday at the ongoing International Monetary Fund (IMF)/World Bank summit, the Nigerian Minister of Finance, Mr Wale Edun noted that Nigeria needed to boost its oil production to fix its FX issues.

“The key about the foreign exchange market really is supply and as you know we are an oil-producing country, we just need to get our oil production up and that will deal with that issue of foreign exchange supply and pressure on foreign exchange anytime there are large flows.”

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Naira

Naira Weakens Against Dollar at Official, Parallel FX Markets

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New Naira notes

The Naira depreciated at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) and the parallel market on Monday, signifying more worries for the local currency.

At the official market – NAFEM – the local currency sold for the US Dollar at N1,603.16/$1 as it recorded a 0.15 percent or N2.38 drop versus N1,600.78/$1 it was valued at the previous session on Friday.

This occurred as supply rose at the opening session as turnover published on the FMDQ Group website stood at $359.22 million indicating that the session’s turnover went higher by 2.4 percent or $8.50 million compared to $350.72 million that was published the day before.

At the unofficial market, the domestic currency closed at N1,698.97 to the US Dollar, a drop of N8.15 compared to N1,690.82/$1 it closed during the Friday trading session.

The weakening of the Naira is happening as the nation’s external reserves continue to swell due to lower US Dollar volume sales to boost liquidity in the official FX market.

Latest data showed the balance in Nigeria’s foreign reserves inched to about $39 billion as CBN data revealed that Nigeria now has $38.992 billion as gross balance in the nation’s external reserves.

The CBN has not made do with its promise to prop up the market as it appears to have halted its weekly FX sales

In a different trend, the domestic currency witnessed a flat outcome against the British currency and the Euro in the week’s opening session.

On the Pound Sterling, the local currency closed at N2,153.90/£1 and N1,800.79/€1 on the Euro.

In the parallel market, the local currency depreciated in its value against the British Pound Sterling by N11.69 to sell at N2,213.25/£1 compared with the preceding session’s N2,201.56/£1 and followed the same pattern against the Euro as it lost N10 to quote at N1,845.29/€1 versus the previous day’s rate of N1,835.29/€1.

The local currency also depreciated further by N8.64 to close at N1,225.82 per Canadian Dollar, compared to Friday’s N1,217.18 per CAD.

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