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Nigeria, Other Emerging markets Face Debt Crisis

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Emerging Markets
  • Nigeria, Other Emerging markets Face Debt Crisis

Falling foreign reserves, rising capital flights, weak currencies and rising debt obligations amid global health crisis have left many emerging economies begging for debt relief as they struggle to avoid default.

Nigeria has already cut down on 2020 expenditure and adjusted its 2020 oil benchmark from $57 per barrel to $30, according to the nation’s finance minister, Mrs Ahmed Zainab.

Similarly, the Central Bank of Nigeria has adjusted the nation’s foreign exchange rate to N380 against the US dollar, up from N360/$1 it pegged the Nigerian Naira following a substantial decline in the nation’s foreign reserves.

The situation is not different in Zambia, where advisers have been called to restructure the nation’s debt while Ecuador is likely to default after asking for more time to meet coupon payments. Angola, Tunisia and Bahrain are some of the nation’s economists fear will struggle to meet impending payments in the coming months.

The falling emerging market currencies against the US dollar has increased the cost of servicing foreign debts in emerging countries and increase the pressure on already struggling nations.

“The impact of global measures to contain the coronavirus will result in a steep fall in [emerging markets’] gross domestic product this year and the collapse in output, spike in capital outflows and plunge in commodity prices could trigger balance sheet problems that make the downturn much worse and the recovery slower,” said William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.

African finance ministers have already asked for debt relief from financial partners like the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others during their second virtual meeting, saying the continent needs at least $100 billion to protect around 30 million jobs from Aviation sector to other key sectors affected by the ongoing pandemic.

Given the size of the damage to the world economy, experts have said emerging economies will not only struggle to access financial support but also struggle with recovery.

The Chief Economic Adviser at Morgan Stanley, Reza Moghadam, said that while emerging markets “largely escaped the 2008 global crisis and recovered quickly, they will not be so lucky this time” and their ability to access international finance is likely to come under “significant stress”.

Zambia, the most exposed African nation, has total external financing requirement (in dollars), coupon payments on short-term debt and current account deficit over the next 12 months of 172 percent of its present foreign reserves while South Africa, Ghana and Angola have funding requirements of at least 90 percent of their GDP.

“It’s not altogether that surprising given that many of these countries have quite small domestic financial sectors so it’s much harder to raise debt domestically and many of these countries have had high current account deficits for some time,” Mr Jackson said.

While Nigeria’s debt to GDP ratio remains moderate at about 25 percent, the nation will struggle to access financial assistance given recent downgrades from rating agencies. The S&P, Fitch Rating and even Moody have downgraded Nigeria’s outlook and ability to pay long term debt in recent weeks, citing falling foreign revenues, weak foreign reserves and low oil prices.

“There would be a redirection of taxpayers’ money to service those debt repayments, thereby reducing what goes into infrastructure, agriculture (provision of food), social amenities, job creation and technological innovation,” said Silas Ozoya, President of SUBA Capital.

“So, poverty in all forms would increase, our currency value would keep dwindling and the extreme case would be ‘economical colonization’ by those we owe as a continent.

“This would slow down local development or better still give the control of whatever FDI development we have to foreign creditors in emerged markets as they might explore the build, operate and transfer (BOT) operation of debt repayment.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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