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Nigerian Economy to Contract by 3.5 percent – McKinsey

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  • Nigerian Economy to Contract by 3.5 percent – McKinsey

Nigeria’s economy could contract as much as 3.5 percent in 2020 even if Africa’s largest economy manages to curb the spread of coronavirus, according to a report by McKinsey & Company, a New-York based global consulting firm.

This translates to a decline of almost 6 percent from the 2019 GDP growth rate of 2.27 percent.

“That would represent a reduction in GDP of approximately $20 billion, with more than two-thirds of the direct impact coming from oil-price effects, given Nigeria’s status as a major oil exporter,” McKinsey & Company said in a report published Wednesday.

Nigeria’s largest contraction was -1.62 percent recorded in 2016 during the nation’s first economic recession in 25 years. However, with a projection of 3.5 percent decline Africa’s largest exporter of crude oil could experience a pervasive decline in growth.

“A contraction of that magnitude at a time prices are rising can only spell an entry into stagflation which means declining output, rising prices and higher unemployment,” said Obinna Uzoma, chief economist at EUA Intelligence.

The analysis was based on the country’s overexposed to the commodity market that is unlikely to rebound anytime soon given low oil prices, weak global oil demand and the uncertainty surrounding the global economy.

McKinsey added that if the outbreak is not contained the nation’s economy could contract by 8.8 percent or $40 billion this year alone given its limited fiscal space and huge financial obligations.

“The biggest driver of this loss would be a reduction in consumer spending in food and beverages, clothing, and transport,” Acha Leke, senior partner at McKinsey & Company, said.

A contraction in growth would disrupt industries, worsen the unemployment rate, hurt capital importation despite falling foreign reserves and impede the central bank’s ability to intervene in the forex market to support economic activity and prop up the Naira value.

“The stock market will also continue to decline as a weaker economy will mean weaker company earnings and spark a recession selloff on top the coronavirus and oil price selloff and unemployment will hit the roof,” Uzoma of EUA Intelligence said, adding that Nigeria is not prepared for such turmoil but “that could be our reality very soon”.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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NNPC E&P Ltd and NOSL Begin Oil Production at OML 13, Akwa Ibom State

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NNPC Exploration and Production Limited (NNPC E&P Ltd) and Natural Oilfield Services Limited (NOSL) have commenced oil production at Oil Mining Lease 13 (OML 13) located in Akwa Ibom State.

The announcement came through a statement signed by Olufemi Soneye, the spokesperson of NNPC E&P Ltd, highlighting the collaborative effort between the flagship upstream subsidiary of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and NOSL, a subsidiary of Sterling Oil Exploration & Energy Production Company Limited.

The production, which officially began on May 6, 2024, saw an initial output of 6,000 barrels of oil. The partners aim to ramp up production to 40,000 barrels per day by May 27, 2024, reflecting their commitment to enhancing Nigeria’s crude oil production capacity.

Soneye said the first oil flow from OML 13 shows the dedication of NNPC E&P Ltd and NOSL to drive growth and development in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

He stated, “The achievement does not only signify the culmination of rigorous planning and execution by the teams involved but also represents a new era of economic empowerment and development opportunities for the host communities.”

For Nigeria, the commencement of oil production at OML 13 holds immense significance. It contributes to the country’s efforts to increase its oil production capacity, essential for meeting domestic energy needs and driving economic growth.

Moreover, Soneye reiterated NNPC E&P Ltd and NOSL’s commitment to operating in a safe, environmentally responsible, and community-beneficial manner.

This partnership underscores their dedication to sustainable practices and fostering positive impacts in the local communities where they operate.

The commencement of oil production at OML 13 marks a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry, signifying not only increased production capacity but also the collaborative efforts between industry players to drive growth and development in the nation’s vital energy sector.

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Nigerian Artists’ Spotify Revenue Surges by 2,500% in Seven Years

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Nigerian musicians have experienced a shift in their fortunes on the global streaming platform Spotify with revenue surging by a 2,500% over the past seven years.

This meteoric rise shows the growing importance of digital platforms in propelling the country’s vibrant music industry onto the international stage.

According to Spotify’s annual report titled “Loud & Clear,” Nigerian artists collectively earned N25 billion from the platform in 2023 alone.

This figure represents a doubling of earnings compared to the previous year and a jaw-dropping increase of 2,500% since 2017.

The report further highlights the widening reach and impact of Nigerian music, revealing that more artists than ever before are now reaping rewards from their streaming activity.

In 2023, three times as many Nigerian artists earned over N10 million compared to 2018, reflecting the growing appetite for Nigerian music both at home and abroad.

Jocelyne Muhutu-Remy, Spotify’s managing director for Sub-Saharan Africa, hailed the growth in royalties earned by Nigerian artists on the platform as a testament to their talent, creativity, and global appeal.

She emphasized Spotify’s commitment to supporting African creators and pledged to continue investing in Nigerian artists to sustain this momentum.

Despite these gains, Nigerian artists’ earnings on Spotify still represent only a fraction of the platform’s total payout.

In 2023, Spotify paid out $9 billion in royalties globally with Nigerian artists accounting for a modest share of approximately $28.65 million.

A recent analysis revealed that South Africa remains the dominant force in Africa’s music streaming landscape, commanding a substantial portion of the region’s total music revenue.

However, Nigeria’s rapid ascent signals a shifting dynamic with the country’s music industry poised for even greater prominence on the global stage.

The International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI) corroborated this trend in its 2024 report, identifying the Sub-Saharan African market as the world’s fastest-growing music revenue market.

The report attributed this growth to the surge in paid streaming services, which contributed significantly to the region’s overall music revenue.

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Naira Depreciation Pushes Import Duty Costs Up by 23%

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Amidst the ongoing economic turbulence in Nigeria, the depreciation of the Naira has inflicted a significant blow to businesses and importers.

The latest casualty is the surge in import duty costs which have skyrocketed by 23% due to the weakening of the national currency against the United States dollar.

The cost of clearing imports has surged to N1,412.573/$ as of May 8, an increase from the year-to-date low of N1,150.16/$ recorded on April 23.

This sudden spike in import duty costs reflects a 48% surge compared to the rate recorded in January.

The surge in import duty costs comes as a result of the fluctuation in the exchange rate between the Naira and the US dollar.

While the Naira experienced a brief rally in April, providing some relief to importers, the recent depreciation has erased those gains and compounded the financial strain on businesses.

Jonathan Nicole, former president of the Shippers Association of Lagos State, voiced concerns over the destabilizing effect of the fluctuating import duty rates on importers.

He criticized the lack of consistency in Nigeria’s economic policies and said there is a need for stability to attract investments and foster economic growth.

In response to the escalating import duty costs, stakeholders in the business community have called for urgent intervention to mitigate the adverse impact on businesses.

The surge in import duty costs poses a significant challenge to manufacturers and importers, particularly those who had already incurred expenses in anticipation of stable exchange rates.

As the cost of doing business continues to rise, there are growing concerns about the long-term viability of businesses and the potential impact on Nigeria’s economy.

With the economic landscape fraught with uncertainties, stakeholders are urging the government and regulatory authorities to implement measures aimed at stabilizing the currency and creating a conducive environment for businesses to thrive.

Failure to address these challenges could further exacerbate the economic woes facing Nigeria, jeopardizing its path to recovery and growth.

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