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West African Consumer Confidence Drop Slightly in Q3, 2019

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  • Ghanaian consumer confidence declines by four points
  • Nigerians consumer confidence also subdued

Lagos, 11 December 2019 – Ghana’s latest Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for the third quarter of 2019 shows a slight drop to 114 from the previous quarter’s buoyant 118, while Nigeria’s CCI has also decreased by five points to 122. These two sets of results present a fairly stable, albeit a slightly less positive picture of consumer sentiment across West Africa compared to the previous quarter.

Looking at Ghana’s overall performance, Nielsen Market Lead for West Africa, Yannick Nkembe comments; “The initial optimism experienced at the beginning of the year is waning in Ghana owing to the concerns around the economy. Though inflation levels dropped, these have not shown a meaningful impact at the ground level and Ghanaians continue to feel the pressure. Consumers have become cautious of spending as they are not certain of future prospects.”

This more subdued outlook is reflected by Ghanaian consumers’ curtailed view of their job prospects, with a substantial 12 point decrease to 51% saying job prospects will be excellent or good in the next 12 months. In terms of the state of their personal finances over the next 12 months, 72% say they are excellent or good, down from 74% in the last quarter. The number of Ghanaian consumers who feel now is a good or excellent time to purchase the things they need or want, has also seen an inconsequential drop quarter on quarter, from 46% to 45%.

Looking at whether Ghanaians have spare cash, only 42% say yes, down a substantial 10 points from the previous quarter. Once they meet their essential living expenses, the highest number of consumers (82%) still say they will put their spare cash into savings, followed by 66% on home improvements/decorating and 59% who will invest in stocks and mutual funds.

When looking at the factors that are having a negative impact on Ghanaians outlook, the top concerns over the next six months are increasing food prices (26%) followed by work/life balance at 22%, the economy and tolerance towards different religions, both at 18%, and job security coming in fourth at 16%.

In light of their outlook, more than three quarters (72%) of Ghanaians have changed their spending to save on household expenses compared to the same time in the previous year. The top three actions they have taken to save money are delaying the replacement of major household items (55%), looking for better deals on loans/insurance/credit cards (54%) and spending less on new clothes (53%).

A drop in sentiment in Nigeria

The third quarter also saw a drop in sentiment in Nigeria with consumer confidence decreasing by five points to 122, albeit it is still higher than the same quarter last year (118).

Commenting on the recent decline in consumer sentiment, Nielsen MD for Nigeria, Ged Nooy says; “Nigerians are experiencing a subdued confidence level considering that inflation has started to rise again and the proposed VAT increase bill, which is making people cautious. Furthermore, the rising sovereign debt and the anxiety around further Naira devaluation, continued to impact consumer sentiment in Nigeria in the third quarter.”

Looking at the consumer picture, Nigerians immediate-spending intentions has shown a large decline; with only 41% of consumers (versus 54% in the previous quarter) saying now is a good or excellent time to purchase what they want or need. Their perception around job prospects has also declined, with 55% viewing them as excellent or good – a five point drop from the previous quarter.

In addition, sentiment around the state of personal finances has also shown a decline, with 76% Nigerians agreeing their state of personal finances will be excellent or good over the next year, a six point drop from the previous quarter.

Looking at whether Nigerians have spare cash to spend, 47% said yes, versus 51% in the previous quarter. In terms of their spending priorities once they meet their essential living expenses, 76% would invest in home improvements/decorating, 72% would put their spare cash into savings and 62% say they will invest in shares/mutual funds.

Looking at the top concerns for Nigerians over the next six months, work/life balance tops the list with 28% – a one point increase compared to the previous quarter. This is followed by concerns around increasing food prices at 22% (the same as Q2’19) and tolerance towards different religions (19%) superseding the economy, which is now at 16% – a four point decrease compared to the previous quarter.

Elaborating on these results, Nooy says; “Nigerian consumer sentiment dropped this quarter, however it is still quite high compared to the cut off of 100, where anything above 100 reflects a positive consumer confidence. The key for marketers and retailers is to understand these fluctuating consumer sentiments and quickly adapt to the consumer’s needs.”

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Energy

Tinubu’s Government to Convert Fuel Stations to CNG Outlets for Cheaper, Cleaner Energy

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The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, has revealed President Bola Tinubu’s plans to convert fuel stations into Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) outlets to provide Nigerians with an affordable alternative to petrol.

In a statement on Wednesday, while addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting, Ekpo confirmed that the President intends to expand the use of CNG across the country.

The minister emphasized that CNG is here to stay and urged Nigerians to embrace the initiative, adding that it is safe, cheaper, and environmentally friendly.

He said, “We are well aware that the President set up a Presidential Committee on the CNG to drive the CNG project. It is left for us to inform the general public that CNG has come to stay, and we have to follow that route because CNG is safe, cheaper, and protects the environment.

“It is important to note that when you are using CNG, you save a lot of money, a litre of fuel can go for N1000, but you get CNG at N200 per litre, which saves you N800.

“With the passion of Mr President, the push that he has given to us, we’ll try to drive the CNG programme to reach the nooks and crannies of this country.

“We have to take advantage of the natural resources, gas, that God has endowed us with.

“What we produce in our country is more than enough for us to use for CNG; and of course, you know, we are exporting to so many other countries.”

This development follows a recent CNG vehicle explosion at the NIPCO CNG station on Eyean, Auchi Road, Edo State, which resulted in multiple injuries and damage to vehicles in the vicinity.

Fortunately, no deaths were recorded.

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Crude Oil

Large US Crude Inventories Weaken Oil Prices

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Crude Oil

Oil prices fell on Wednesday after data showed that US crude inventories rose as traders continued to consider the conflict in the Middle East.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, shed $1.08, or 1.42 per cent to settle at $74.96 per barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil dipped by 97 cents, or 1.35 per cent to $70.77.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an inventory increase of 5.5 million barrels for the week to October 18.

The inventory change followed an American Petroleum Institute (API) estimate of a build totalling 1.64 million barrels for the reported period. It also compared with a draw of 2.2 million barrels for the previous week, as reported by the EIA last Thursday.

In petrol, the American authority estimated an inventory build of 900,000 barrels for the week to October 18, with production averaging 10 million barrels daily.

This compared with an inventory decline of 2.2 million barrels for the previous week when petrol production averaged 9.3 million barrels daily.

Market analysts noted that the crude inventory build is due to the recent hurricane in the US which curtailed production in the largest oil producer in the world.

Pressure also came as the US dollar index rose to its highest point in late July.

A strong US Dollar can hurt demand for oil, which is priced in the American currency, as it makes it more expensive for holders of other currencies.

The market also continued to monitor developments and concerns over potential oil supply risk from conflict in the Middle East.

On Wednesday, there was no tangible outcome from the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s latest visit to Israel.

Israel continues to pound both Gaza and Lebanon, and most recently it killed the next in line to the top spot at Hezbollah, Hashem Safieddine, sparking expectations of retaliation.

Mr Blinken pushed on Wednesday for a halt to fighting between Israel and militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah, but heavy air strikes carried out by Israel on a Lebanese port city Tyre showed that there is no calm in sight.

Market participants expect the conflict to go on longer and have taken advantage of the events unfolding to price longer.

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Gold

Gold Continues Gains Amid Political Uncertainty in the US

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gold bars - Investors King

Written by Samer Hasn, Senior Market Analyst at XS

Gold continues to reap historic gains today, touching $2,758 per ounce for the first time.

Gold’s rise comes amid heightened political uncertainty, driven by the approaching U.S. presidential election and the tightening poll results between the candidates. The absence of any near prospect for a ceasefire on any of the Middle East’s raging fronts also keeps the yellow metal’s appeal high.

While gold’s continued rise despite the strength of the US dollar and rising Treasury yields seems to reinforce the hypothesis that this rise is driven by increasing uncertainty rather than hope for lower interest rates.

With less than two weeks to go until the presidential election, we see no clear lead for either candidate over the other. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris is 1.7 percentage points ahead of Republican candidate Donald Trump in the average of the polls, according to FiveThirtyEight.

This closeness in the polls may reduce bets on risky assets, which may be volatile sharply after the results are announced, and at the same time, it may boost demand for safe assets.

During the previous two sessions, the largest physical gold exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), attracted net positive inflows of about $580 million, while the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) recorded about $82 million in inflows during the same period.

However, Wall Street does not seem to share the same views. The Wall Street Journal talked about the increasing bets by hedge funds on the possibility of a Donald Trump victory. Some are betting on further strengthening of the dollar as Trump imposes tariffs and reignites trade wars.

This will fuel inflation, which in turn is reflected in the rise in long-term Treasury yields, which reflect expectations of future interest rate hikes.

This in turn may be a negative factor that pressures gold to curb its gains, but in contrast, the International Monetary Fund sees high uncertainty about the future. The trade war and tariffs would disrupt global supply chains and hinder growth in the medium term.

Further, in the Middle East, we have seen increasing talk from the US administration about pushing for a ceasefire, especially with Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Israel. However, I do not believe that this will lead to any tangible progress towards stopping the war on any of the regional fronts.

Egypt has presented a small proposal for a temporary ceasefire in Gaza. However, this proposal does not seem to lead to anything, especially since the far-right ministers in Israel are opposing it, according to what Israeli officials told Axios earlier this week.

This is regarding a temporary ceasefire, while reaching an agreement for a permanent ceasefire and ending the war will be even more difficult. Hamas also may not accept the return of the hostages unless the war stops, according to The New York Times.

As for Lebanon, Israel has sent to US the conditions for ending its war there, which are believed to be unacceptable to Lebanon because they constitute a violation of sovereignty, according to Axios as well. The conditions include granting Israel the freedom to carry out military operations inside Lebanon.

In addition, Nicholas Kristof says in an opinion piece in The New York Times that he is skeptical about capitalizing on the “opportunity” to stop the war after the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar due to the lack of significant pressure from the US administration on Israel. He also believes that the momentum around this opportunity may fade in the coming days as the escalation worsens if Israel attacks Iran, prompting the latter to carry out a counter-response.

Instead of seeking to reach an agreement to stop the war, we see growing momentum inside Israel for the idea of ​​resettling the Gaza Strip, which contradicts any peace efforts. The Wall Street Journal mentioned further promote for this idea by members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party, which describes itself as liberal, and this comes in conjunction with the escalating rhetoric of the extreme religious right about resettlement.

Accordingly, I believe that the increasing talk about the hope that a calm is approaching in this regional war is exaggerated and it will diminish with the coming rounds of escalation.

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