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West African Consumer Confidence Drop Slightly in Q3, 2019

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  • Ghanaian consumer confidence declines by four points
  • Nigerians consumer confidence also subdued

Lagos, 11 December 2019 – Ghana’s latest Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for the third quarter of 2019 shows a slight drop to 114 from the previous quarter’s buoyant 118, while Nigeria’s CCI has also decreased by five points to 122. These two sets of results present a fairly stable, albeit a slightly less positive picture of consumer sentiment across West Africa compared to the previous quarter.

Looking at Ghana’s overall performance, Nielsen Market Lead for West Africa, Yannick Nkembe comments; “The initial optimism experienced at the beginning of the year is waning in Ghana owing to the concerns around the economy. Though inflation levels dropped, these have not shown a meaningful impact at the ground level and Ghanaians continue to feel the pressure. Consumers have become cautious of spending as they are not certain of future prospects.”

This more subdued outlook is reflected by Ghanaian consumers’ curtailed view of their job prospects, with a substantial 12 point decrease to 51% saying job prospects will be excellent or good in the next 12 months. In terms of the state of their personal finances over the next 12 months, 72% say they are excellent or good, down from 74% in the last quarter. The number of Ghanaian consumers who feel now is a good or excellent time to purchase the things they need or want, has also seen an inconsequential drop quarter on quarter, from 46% to 45%.

Looking at whether Ghanaians have spare cash, only 42% say yes, down a substantial 10 points from the previous quarter. Once they meet their essential living expenses, the highest number of consumers (82%) still say they will put their spare cash into savings, followed by 66% on home improvements/decorating and 59% who will invest in stocks and mutual funds.

When looking at the factors that are having a negative impact on Ghanaians outlook, the top concerns over the next six months are increasing food prices (26%) followed by work/life balance at 22%, the economy and tolerance towards different religions, both at 18%, and job security coming in fourth at 16%.

In light of their outlook, more than three quarters (72%) of Ghanaians have changed their spending to save on household expenses compared to the same time in the previous year. The top three actions they have taken to save money are delaying the replacement of major household items (55%), looking for better deals on loans/insurance/credit cards (54%) and spending less on new clothes (53%).

A drop in sentiment in Nigeria

The third quarter also saw a drop in sentiment in Nigeria with consumer confidence decreasing by five points to 122, albeit it is still higher than the same quarter last year (118).

Commenting on the recent decline in consumer sentiment, Nielsen MD for Nigeria, Ged Nooy says; “Nigerians are experiencing a subdued confidence level considering that inflation has started to rise again and the proposed VAT increase bill, which is making people cautious. Furthermore, the rising sovereign debt and the anxiety around further Naira devaluation, continued to impact consumer sentiment in Nigeria in the third quarter.”

Looking at the consumer picture, Nigerians immediate-spending intentions has shown a large decline; with only 41% of consumers (versus 54% in the previous quarter) saying now is a good or excellent time to purchase what they want or need. Their perception around job prospects has also declined, with 55% viewing them as excellent or good – a five point drop from the previous quarter.

In addition, sentiment around the state of personal finances has also shown a decline, with 76% Nigerians agreeing their state of personal finances will be excellent or good over the next year, a six point drop from the previous quarter.

Looking at whether Nigerians have spare cash to spend, 47% said yes, versus 51% in the previous quarter. In terms of their spending priorities once they meet their essential living expenses, 76% would invest in home improvements/decorating, 72% would put their spare cash into savings and 62% say they will invest in shares/mutual funds.

Looking at the top concerns for Nigerians over the next six months, work/life balance tops the list with 28% – a one point increase compared to the previous quarter. This is followed by concerns around increasing food prices at 22% (the same as Q2’19) and tolerance towards different religions (19%) superseding the economy, which is now at 16% – a four point decrease compared to the previous quarter.

Elaborating on these results, Nooy says; “Nigerian consumer sentiment dropped this quarter, however it is still quite high compared to the cut off of 100, where anything above 100 reflects a positive consumer confidence. The key for marketers and retailers is to understand these fluctuating consumer sentiments and quickly adapt to the consumer’s needs.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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gold bars - Investors King

Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Hold Firm Despite Middle East Tensions

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Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, oil prices remained resilient, holding steady above key levels on Tuesday.

Brent crude oil traded above $87 a barrel after a slight dip of 0.3% on the previous trading day, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $82 a barrel.

The stability in oil prices comes amidst a backdrop of positive sentiment across global markets, with signs of strength in various sectors countering concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

One of the factors supporting oil prices is the weakening of the US dollar, which makes commodities priced in the currency more attractive to international investors.

Concurrently, equities experienced gains, contributing to the overall positive market sentiment.

However, geopolitical risks persist as Israel intensifies efforts to eliminate what it claims is the last stronghold of Hamas in Gaza and secure the release of remaining hostages.

These actions are expected to keep tensions elevated in the region, adding uncertainty to oil markets.

Despite the geopolitical tensions, options markets have shown a more optimistic outlook in recent days regarding the potential for a spike in oil prices. This suggests that market participants are cautiously optimistic about the resolution of conflicts in the region.

Despite the lingering risks, oil prices have remained below the $90 per barrel price level, a level that many analysts consider significant, particularly as the summer months approach, typically known as the peak demand season for oil.

While prices have experienced some volatility, they have yet to reach the $90 threshold, prompting expectations of further increases later in the year.

Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle Group, expressed confidence in the potential for oil prices to surpass $100 per barrel, citing tight market conditions indicated by timespreads.

However, he also noted the importance of monitoring OPEC’s response to rising prices, as the organization may adjust production levels to stabilize the market.

Overall, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to pose risks to oil markets, the resilience of oil prices amidst these challenges underscores the complex interplay of global factors influencing commodity markets.

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