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Growing Expectations as FG Plans to Reduce oil Asset Stakes

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  • Growing Expectations as FG Plans to Reduce oil Asset Stakes

Industry stakeholders are keen on the planned divestment of stakes in joint venture oil and gas assets by the Federal Government, ’FEMI ASU writes

The planned reduction of government stakes in joint oil ventures with private oil companies, especially international oil companies, has sparked interest from some industry stakeholders.

The President Muhammadu Buhari-led administration had, in its Economic Recovery and Growth Plan released in 2017, said it would reduce its stakes in JV oil assets, refineries and other downstream subsidiaries such as pipelines and depots.

The 2019 approved budget public presentation obtained by our correspondent revealed that President Muhammadu Buhari had directed that immediate action be commenced to restructure the JV oil assets “so as to reduce government shareholding to not less than 40 per cent and that this exercise must be completed within the 2019 fiscal year.”

It disclosed that the proceeds of oil assets ownership (JV equity) restructuring would constitute 10.1 per cent of expected Federal Government’s revenue this year.

The document said, “The overall revenue performance in 2018 is only 55 per cent of the target in the 2018 Budget partly because some one-off items such as the N710bn from Oil Joint Venture Asset restructuring and N320bn from revision of the Oil Production Sharing Contract legislation/terms have yet to be actualised and have thus been rolled over to 2019.

The nation’s oil and gas production structure is majorly split between JV onshore and in shallow water with foreign and local companies and PSC in deepwater offshore, to which many IOCs have shifted their focus in recent years.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation owns 55 per cent stake in its JV with Shell and 60 per cent stakes with others, including Chevron and ExxonMobil.

Under the JV arrangement, both the NNPC and private operators contribute to the funding of operations in the proportion of their equity holdings and generally receive the produced crude oil in the same ratio.

But the NNPC failed to meet its share of cash call obligations for many years, resulting in significant debts owed to oil companies.

In 2016, the international oil companies operating in Nigeria agreed to give the Federal Government a discount of $1.7bn from the $6.8bn cash call arrears owed by the NNPC.

The Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, Seplat Petroleum Development Company Plc, Mr Austin Avuru, said the divestment would generate badly needed fund for the government to support the funding of the 2019 budget.

The Managing Director, Aiteo Eastern Exploration and Production Company, Mr Victor Okoronkwo, described the government’s proposed sell-down of its joint venture participation as a very good way to help the existing private joint venture partners to further capitalise and consolidate their positions.

He said, “Our expectation is that in line with the joint venture agreements between us and the Federal Government, the existing joint venture partners will have the right of first refusal. The first wave of asset sale by the international oil companies happened in a period when oil price was really high; so, they were able to make a lot of money.

“But I believe that the government expects to reap a lot more multiplier effect out of this sell-down of assets rather than just carting cash away, and the existing indigenous joint venture partners will be willing to work with the government to ensure that that materialises.

“Of course, we are an existing joint venture partner; so, we expect the right of first refusal. We have 45 per cent of OML 29 and the government owns 55 per cent.”

As part of efforts to surmount cash-call challenges and put the upstream sector on a path of sustainable growth, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation has said it would introduce the Incorporated Joint Venture model to replace all the JV exploration and production projects.

The Group Managing Director, NNPC, Dr Maikanti Baru, said at a panel session on Wednesday at the Nigeria Oil and Gas Conference in Abuja, that the consideration for the IJV model was born out of the need to encourage healthy business culture and growth in the energy sector.

The GMD, who was represented by the Chief Operating Officer, Mr Bello Rabiu, said the IJV model, when implemented, would make oil and gas business more productive and beneficial to investors.

Baru explained that the current alternative funding arrangement was a temporary measure and that the objective of the IJV model was to create a robust business system “that allows for projects self-financing and guarantees a win-win situation for all stakeholders.”

He said, “The only option which is the same everywhere in the world is for any project or any business to fund itself and the only way it can fund itself is for the business to see itself as both funded by equity and debt.

“The incorporation element of IJV allows it to operate as an independent entity that can source capital to fund its projects and deliver dividends to shareholders at the end of each financial year.”

Responding to the question on apparent lack of trust between the government and IOCs, the GMD said that the trust level on both sides had significantly improved since 2015 till date.

He noted that prompt payment of cash-call arears and other measures initiated by the corporation contributed in restoring the confidence of the IOCs.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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