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Why CBN May Not Raise Rates in 2019

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Godwin Emefiele CBN - Investors King
  • Why CBN May Not Raise Rates in 2019

The uncertainty surrounding global growth is forcing central banks to make monetary adjustments in order to stimulate and sustain growth.

Global View

On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, said the central bank will do anything possible to sustain U.S economic productivity.

The comment was after previously signaling zero rate hike earlier this year, however, the inability of President Trump to reach an agreement with the Chinese has changed the dynamics of global trade in recent months and expected to further erode productivity in developed economies if nothing is done.

According to the U.S central bank, weak global growth amid efforts to maintain 2 percent inflation rate will necessitate monetary adjustments.

This has led to many experts projecting that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 50 basis points this year, with the odds of that happening jumping to 70 percent this week.

In Australia, the story is not different, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates by 25 basis points for the first time in over three years on Tuesday, citing weak growth amid record low unemployment rate and sluggish wage increase.

The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are expected to increase economic stimulus, especially after the Fed’s comment and Australia move.

Nigeria

While the Central Bank of Nigeria lowered interest rate by 50 basis points to 13.5 percent in the first quarter, citing improved macro factors. The truth is the CBN led Monetary Policy Committee lowered interest rate after enough evidence showed the U.S., the European Central Bank, Bank of England, the People’s Bank of China and Bank of Japan won’t be raising rates in 2019 given the fragile state of global economy and the uncertainty surrounding the U.S-China trade talks.

The apex bank anticipated that the disruption in crude oil exports from Venezuela and Libya, Iranian sanctions and OPEC+ production cuts will sustain crude oil at about $70 a barrel, while expecting foreign investors to continue to invest in Nigeria considering 13.5 percent is still high and knowing developed economies are not raising rates in 2019.

But with the crude oil now trading at about $61 a barrel, down from $73 following the fallout between the U.S and China, Nigeria’s foreign reserves would benefit from the likely capital inflows into emerging economies.

This coupled with the foreign reserves currently standing at a record high of $45.2 billion, moderating inflation rate of 11.37 percent and the implementation of the signed N8.91 trillion 2019 budget will give the CBN enough room to adjust to global happenings and still manage the economy effectively without necessarily raising the interest rate.

A situation that would sustain the CBN’s ability to regulate the foreign exchange market through its intermittent intervention.

Still, a clear economic policy is needed to encourage capital inflow given the surged in the risks associated with emerging assets –U.S experts/analysts are already predicting economic recession for 2020.

Therefore, Nigeria’s economy needs to be positioned with a strong economic team and a clear policy path to attract investors ahead of South Africa and other emerging markets with better economic policies.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Loans

Akinwumi Adesina Calls for Debt Transparency to Safeguard African Economic Growth

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Akinwumi Adesina

Amidst the backdrop of mounting concerns over Africa’s ballooning external debt, Akinwumi Adesina, the President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), has emphatically called for greater debt transparency to protect the continent’s economic growth trajectory.

In his address at the Semafor Africa Summit, held alongside the International Monetary Fund and World Bank 2024 Spring Meetings, Adesina highlighted the detrimental impact of non-transparent resource-backed loans on African economies.

He stressed that such loans not only complicate debt resolution but also jeopardize countries’ future growth prospects.

Adesina explained the urgent need for accountability and transparency in debt management, citing the continent’s debt burden of $824 billion as of 2021.

With countries dedicating a significant portion of their GDP to servicing these obligations, Adesina warned that the current trajectory could hinder Africa’s development efforts.

One of the key concerns raised by Adesina was the shift from concessional financing to more expensive and short-term commercial debt, particularly Eurobonds, which now constitute a substantial portion of Africa’s total debt.

He criticized the prevailing ‘Africa premium’ that raises borrowing costs for African countries despite their lower default rates compared to other regions.

Adesina called for a paradigm shift in the perception of risk associated with African investments, advocating for a more nuanced approach that reflects the continent’s economic potential.

He stated the importance of an orderly and predictable debt resolution framework, called for the expedited implementation of the G20 Common Framework.

The AfDB President also outlined various initiatives and instruments employed by the bank to mitigate risks and attract institutional investors, including partial credit guarantees and synthetic securitization.

He expressed optimism about Africa’s renewable energy sector and highlighted the Africa Investment Forum as a catalyst for large-scale investments in critical sectors.

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Banking Sector

UBA, Access Holdings, and FBN Holdings Lead Nigerian Banks in Electronic Banking Revenue

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UBA House Marina

United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc, Access Holdings Plc, and FBN Holdings Plc have emerged as frontrunners in electronic banking revenue among the country’s top financial institutions.

Data revealed that these banks led the pack in income from electronic banking services throughout the 2023 fiscal year.

UBA reported the highest electronic banking income of  N125.5 billion in 2023, up from N78.9 billion recorded in the previous year.

Similarly, Access Holdings grew electronic banking revenue from N59.6 billion in the previous year to N101.6 billion in the year under review.

FBN Holdings also experienced an increase in electronic banking revenue from N55 billion in 2022 to N66 billion.

The rise in electronic banking revenue underscores the pivotal role played by these banks in facilitating digital financial transactions across Nigeria.

As the nation embraces digitalization and transitions towards cashless transactions, these banks have capitalized on the growing demand for electronic banking services.

Tesleemah Lateef, a bank analyst at Cordros Securities Limited, attributed the increase in electronic banking income to the surge in online transactions driven by the cashless policy implemented in the first quarter of 2023.

The policy incentivized individuals and businesses to conduct more transactions through digital channels, resulting in a substantial uptick in electronic banking revenue.

Furthermore, the combined revenue from electronic banking among the top 10 Nigerian banks surged to N427 billion from N309 billion, reflecting the industry’s robust growth trajectory in digital financial services.

The impressive performance of UBA, Access Holdings, and FBN Holdings underscores their strategic focus on leveraging technology to enhance customer experience and drive financial inclusion.

By investing in digital payment infrastructure and promoting digital payments among their customers, these banks have cemented their position as industry leaders in the rapidly evolving landscape of electronic banking in Nigeria.

As the Central Bank of Nigeria continues to promote digital payments and reduce the country’s dependence on cash, banks are poised to further capitalize on the opportunities presented by the digital economy.

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Loans

Nigeria’s $2.25 Billion Loan Request to Receive Final Approval from World Bank in June

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IMF - Investors King

Nigeria’s $2.25 billion loan request is expected to receive final approval from the World Bank in June.

The loan, consisting of $1.5 billion in Development Policy Financing and $750 million in Programme-for-Results Financing, aims to bolster Nigeria’s developmental efforts.

Finance Minister Wale Edun hailed the loan as a “free lunch,” highlighting its favorable terms, including a 40-year term, 10 years of moratorium, and a 1% interest rate.

Edun highlighted the loan’s quasi-grant nature, providing substantial financial support to Nigeria’s economic endeavors.

While the loan request awaits formal approval in June, Edun revealed that the World Bank’s board of directors had already greenlit the credit, currently undergoing processing.

The loan signifies a vote of confidence in Nigeria’s economic resilience and strategic response to global challenges, as showcased during the recent Spring Meetings.

Nigeria’s delegation, led by Edun, underscored the nation’s commitment to addressing economic obstacles and leveraging international partnerships for sustainable development.

With the impending approval of the $2.25 billion loan, Nigeria looks poised to embark on transformative initiatives, buoyed by crucial financial backing from the World Bank.

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