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Nigeria Produced Above OPEC Oil Quota in Feb – Report

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  • Nigeria Produced Above OPEC Oil Quota in Feb – Report

Nigeria, Africa’s top oil producer, pumped more crude oil in February than the quota given by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, a new survey has shown.

OPEC and 10 non-OPEC countries agreed in December to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day effective from January for an initial period of six months to help balance the market and support prices.

Nigeria, which was exempted from the previous production cuts deal, agreed to a quota under the current accord. With a reference level of 1.738 million bpd, the country was given a new quota of 1.685 million bpd.

But Nigeria pumped 1.88 million bpd in February, 190,000 bpd above its cap, S&P Global Platts’ survey of industry officials, analysts and shipping data found.

The country has started production from a new deepwater field, Egina, though the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr Ibe Kachikwu, has suggested that he might seek to have those barrels classified by OPEC as condensates, which is not subject to the quotas.

Nigeria also considers Agbami grade as a condensate, while S&P Global Platts and some other secondary sources used by OPEC to monitor production classify it as crude.

The nation’s crude oil production including condensates fell to 1.999 million bpd in January from 2.081 million bpd in December, according to the Ministry of Petroleum Resources.

President Muhammadu Buhari said last month that the country could consider a reduction in crude oil production in support of efforts to shore up the price of the commodity.

He said, “As a responsible member of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Nigeria was willing to go along with the Saudi initiative in limiting output so that prices would go up.”

The 2019 budget proposal, presented to the National Assembly on December 19 by President Buhari, was based on oil production of 2.3 million bpd (including condensates), with an oil benchmark price of $60 per barrel.

OPEC’s crude oil production in February modestly declined to 30.80 million bpd in February, the survey showed.

The figure is a 60,000 bpd drop from January and is the group’s lowest output level since March 2015, when Gabon, Equatorial Guinea and Congo had yet to join the organisation but Qatar was still a member.

Despite the fall, OPEC still has more cutting to do to fully comply with its supply accord that went into force in January. The 11 members with quotas under the deal achieved 79 per cent of their committed cuts in February, and remain 170,000 bpd above their collective ceiling. This is a slight improvement on January’s 76 per cent, with Nigeria and Iraq producing far in excess of their cap, according to Platts calculations.

Iraq produced 4.67 million bpd in February, according to the survey, 160,000 bpd above its quota.

The country has consistently lagged in compliance with its committed cap, both under the current deal and under the previous accord, which ran from 2017 to 2018.

Iraqi officials have sought exemptions from the deal, saying their war-torn country needed oil revenues to rebuild from its devastating fight against the Islamic State. But other members have pressured the country -largely to no avail – to conform to its quota.

Libya, which this week lifted the force majeure at its 300,000 bpd Sharara field after almost three months, pumped 870,000 bpd in February, a slight rise from January, according to the survey.

The first cargoes of Sharara crude since production restarted are expected to be lifted this weekend.

Venezuela and Iran, both under US sanctions, and Libya, where instability continues to impact output, are exempt from the deal.

The February output figures will be reviewed by a six-country monitoring committee of the OPEC/non-OPEC coalition, which meets on March 18 in Azerbaijan to discuss market conditions and assess compliance with the deal. The committee is co-chaired by Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer, has made good on its pledge to lead the coalition by example, slashing its output to 10.15 million bpd in February, the survey found. That is 160,000 bpd below its quota of 10.31 million bpd and the kingdom’s lowest output level since May 2018.

Venezuela, whose oil production has been declining for years due to underinvestment, technical problems and labour issues, pumped 1.10 million bpd in February, down 60,000 bpd month-on-month, as it has struggled to sell its crude since US sanctions were imposed in late January.

Iran managed to keep production steady in February, at 2.72 million bpd, the survey found, as several buyers in the month took advantage of sanctions waivers the US granted to eight countries to purchase Iranian crude.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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