Connect with us

Economy

Experts to Buhari: Remove Petrol Subsidy, Cut Interest Rates

Published

on

petrol
  • Experts to Buhari: Remove Petrol Subsidy, Cut Interest Rates

Foreign and local economic experts have said President Muhammadu Buhari should put at the top of his second-term agenda the removal of petrol subsidy as well as the reduction of interest rates in a bid to stimulate investments and economic growth.

Experts at Agusto & Co Limited, a credit rating agency, said in a report on Tuesday that the country “is currently in a dire fiscal strait and the numbers are quite grim.”

“For instance, despite the positive spin about Nigeria’s benign debt to Gross Domestic Product currently around 20 per cent, interest payments as a percentage of revenue are over 60 per cent,” they said.

The Lagos-based rating agency said Buhari’s government would have to work to raise revenue while also restructuring government spending.

It said, “All options on the table for Mr Buhari in his last term are hard choices with no easy way out. For instance, Nigeria’s current fuel subsidy regime indicates the country may have re-adopted opaque practices of the past that not only create a huge fiscal hole but a morass as well.

“With subsidy payments probably in the range of N1.2tn-N1.3tn annually, the country is obviously hemorrhaging especially amidst the steep opportunity costs. Mr Buhari will not only have to stop this fiscal hemorrhage but also muster the political will to deregulate the downstream petroleum industry once and for all.”

According to Agusto & Co, some of the big issues that will make or mar Buhari’s economic records will be the management of subsidies and other cost-unreflective tariffs being stifled by price controls.

“These reforms will require the removal of subsidies on the pump price of petrol, allow market forces to determine the domestic price of natural gas, allow electricity tariffs that enable operators to earn margins on their costs and also ensure exchange rates reflect fundamentals. These reforms could help stimulate investments across the board and unlock economic growth,” the experts added.

They said the Buhari administration should seek to improve efficiencies in the economy by concessioning key infrastructure and eliminating monopolies of state-owned enterprises in key sectors such as aviation (airport ownership and management), railway and electricity transmission by opening up the sectors to private sector investments.

The Global Chief Economist, Renaissance Capital, Charlie Robertson, in an emailed note on Tuesday, said Nigeria would require a doubling of oil price or industrialisation to achieve real per capita GDP growth of four to six per cent (i.e. headline GDP growth of seven to nine per cent).

He said, “Without it, per capita GDP growth may be around zero per cent, which implies headline GDP rising at roughly three per cent annually.

“To achieve industrialisation, Nigeria needs to raise the adult literacy rate from 60 per cent to 70-80 per cent – which we think can happen from 2024 onwards; treble electricity consumption – which we assume requires at least a doubling of the electricity tariff, and double the investment rate from 13 per cent of GDP to 26 per cent of GDP – or triple it, to match what Ethiopia is doing.”

Robertson added, “To double the investment rate, we suggest that reforms may be needed, like removing the implicit fuel subsidy that costs about 0.5 per cent of GDP. It supports consumption and not investment.”

He said the government should “boost domestic savings and bring down interest rates which will probably require a smaller budget deficit and higher taxes, and encourage foreign direct investment, which in 2018 fell to $2.2bn, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

“Ghana got $3bn. To match Ghana (per capita), Nigeria should be getting $24bn a year. A change of approach to MTN, the oil majors and others may be required.”

According to Robertson, the naira should be allowed to trade closer to fair value, estimated today at N440/$, N470 by year-end and N670 by end-2023.

“Allowing faster currency depreciation does partly contradict point 3 on cutting interest rates,” he added.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Continue Reading
Comments

Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

Published

on

Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

Continue Reading

Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

Published

on

IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

Continue Reading

Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

Published

on

South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

Continue Reading
Advertisement




Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending