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Economic Activities Slow On Elections Jitters

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  • Economic Activities Slow On Elections Jitters

With only a few days to the general elections, Nigeria’s economy seem to have relaxed as activities in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors continued to expand, albeit slowly in January.

The Purchasing Managers Index which measures economic activities in the country for last month had dropped from what was recorded in December.

The presidential elections will be coming up in two weeks’ time (February 16, 2019) and the markets are which had been boosted by end of year purchases slowed in January. The PMI as released by the Central Bank of Nigeria showed that the PMI for the manufacturing sector stood at 58.5 index points while that of the non-manufacturing sector stood at 60.1 points.

The manufacturing PMI in the month of January indicated an expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 22nd consecutive month. The index however grew at a slower rate when compared to the index in the previous month. All 14 subsectors, petroleum & coal products; chemical & pharmaceutical products; primary metal; paper products; cement; furniture & related products; printing & related support activities; fabricated metal products; electrical equipment; food, beverage & tobacco products; nonmetallic mineral products; textile, apparel, leather & footwear; plastics & rubber products; and transportation equipment, surveyed reported growth.

The composite PMI for the nonmanufacturing sector stood at 60.1 points in January 2019, indicating expansion in the Non-manufacturing PMI for the 21st consecutive month, albeit at a slower rate when compared to that in December 2018. Of the 17 surveyed subsectors, 16 recorded growth, while the management of companies subsector remained unchanged during the review period.

Commenting on the PMI, Analyst at FXTM, Lukman Otunuga noted that while confidence over the health of the Nigerian economy is poised to improve if the PMI data continues to respect this positive pattern, “the elections will play a key role in overall sentiment. While the outcome of the presidential elections remains uncertain, it will certainly have a lasting impact on Nigeria’s economy.”

He noted that although Nigeria’s economy is expected to accelerate during the first half of 2019 due to increased government spending ahead of the elections, “the nation’s fate will hang on the election outcome.

The nation’s macroeconomic conditions remain worrying with the unemployment rate sitting at 23.1 per cent and the IMF cutting the nation’s growth forecast for 2019. With oil prices heavily depressed and geopolitical risk factors in the form of trade tensions compounding downside risks, major changes are needed in Nigeria to weather against the storm.

“There was initially a strong sense of optimism over President Buhari elevating the nation by restoring economic growth, fighting corruption and restoring security. However, with inflation rising to worrying levels, Nigeria experiencing a recession and the naira sharply depreciating under his presidency, will Buhari be offered another chance to fulfil his promises?”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

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Nigeria's Inflation Rate - Investors King

Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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Nigeria, China Collaborate to Bridge $18 Billion Trade Gap Through Agricultural Exports

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In a concerted effort to address the $18 billion trade deficit between Nigeria and China, both nations have embarked on a collaborative endeavor aimed at bolstering agricultural exports from Nigeria to China.

This strategic partnership, heralded as a landmark initiative in bilateral trade relations, seeks to narrow the trade gap and foster more balanced economic exchanges between the two countries.

The Executive Director of the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC), Nonye Ayeni, revealed this collaboration during a joint meeting between the Council and the Department of Commerce of Hunan province, China, held in Abuja on Monday.

Addressing the trade imbalance, Ayeni said collaborative efforts will help close the gap and stimulate more equitable trade relations between the two nations.

With Nigeria importing approximately $20.4 billion worth of goods from China, while its exports to China stood at around $2 billion, representing a $18 billion in trade deficit.

This significant imbalance has prompted officials from both countries to strategize on how to rebalance trade dynamics and promote mutually beneficial economic exchanges.

The collaborative effort between Nigeria and China focuses on leveraging the vast potential of Nigeria’s agricultural sector to expand export opportunities to the Chinese market.

Ayeni highlighted Nigeria’s abundant supply of over 1,000 exportable products, emphasizing the need to identify and promote the top 20 products with high demand in global markets, particularly in China.

“We have over 1,000 products in large quantities, and we expect that the collaboration will help us improve. The NEPC is focused on a 12-18 month target, focusing on the top 20 products based on global demand in the markets in which China is a top destination,” Ayeni explained, outlining the strategic objectives of the collaboration.

The initiative not only aims to reduce the trade deficit but also seeks to capitalize on China’s growing appetite for agricultural products. Nigeria, with its diverse agricultural landscape, sees an opportunity to expand its export market and capitalize on China’s increasing demand for agricultural imports.

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