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Economic Activities Slow On Elections Jitters

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  • Economic Activities Slow On Elections Jitters

With only a few days to the general elections, Nigeria’s economy seem to have relaxed as activities in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors continued to expand, albeit slowly in January.

The Purchasing Managers Index which measures economic activities in the country for last month had dropped from what was recorded in December.

The presidential elections will be coming up in two weeks’ time (February 16, 2019) and the markets are which had been boosted by end of year purchases slowed in January. The PMI as released by the Central Bank of Nigeria showed that the PMI for the manufacturing sector stood at 58.5 index points while that of the non-manufacturing sector stood at 60.1 points.

The manufacturing PMI in the month of January indicated an expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 22nd consecutive month. The index however grew at a slower rate when compared to the index in the previous month. All 14 subsectors, petroleum & coal products; chemical & pharmaceutical products; primary metal; paper products; cement; furniture & related products; printing & related support activities; fabricated metal products; electrical equipment; food, beverage & tobacco products; nonmetallic mineral products; textile, apparel, leather & footwear; plastics & rubber products; and transportation equipment, surveyed reported growth.

The composite PMI for the nonmanufacturing sector stood at 60.1 points in January 2019, indicating expansion in the Non-manufacturing PMI for the 21st consecutive month, albeit at a slower rate when compared to that in December 2018. Of the 17 surveyed subsectors, 16 recorded growth, while the management of companies subsector remained unchanged during the review period.

Commenting on the PMI, Analyst at FXTM, Lukman Otunuga noted that while confidence over the health of the Nigerian economy is poised to improve if the PMI data continues to respect this positive pattern, “the elections will play a key role in overall sentiment. While the outcome of the presidential elections remains uncertain, it will certainly have a lasting impact on Nigeria’s economy.”

He noted that although Nigeria’s economy is expected to accelerate during the first half of 2019 due to increased government spending ahead of the elections, “the nation’s fate will hang on the election outcome.

The nation’s macroeconomic conditions remain worrying with the unemployment rate sitting at 23.1 per cent and the IMF cutting the nation’s growth forecast for 2019. With oil prices heavily depressed and geopolitical risk factors in the form of trade tensions compounding downside risks, major changes are needed in Nigeria to weather against the storm.

“There was initially a strong sense of optimism over President Buhari elevating the nation by restoring economic growth, fighting corruption and restoring security. However, with inflation rising to worrying levels, Nigeria experiencing a recession and the naira sharply depreciating under his presidency, will Buhari be offered another chance to fulfil his promises?”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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