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Why Nigerians Are Not Feeling Impact of Economic Growth — DG Budget

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  • Why Nigerians Are Not Feeling Impact of Economic Growth — DG Budget

The Director-General, Budget Office of the Federation, Mr Ben Akabueze, on Wednesday explained why Nigerians were not feeling the real impact of the positive economic growth rate on their lives.

He gave the explanation while making a presentation at a roundtable on the 2019 budget.

The event which was organised by the Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industry was attended by top officials of the chamber led by its President, Adetokunbo Kayode.

Akabueze said that for Nigerians to effectively feel the impact of economy growth, the rate of Gross Domestic Product growth must be higher than the population growth.

He said while the rate of growth in the country’s population was about three per cent, it was currently higher than the GDP growth rate of the country.

The DG budget said the Federal Government understood the challenge, noting that was why the outlook for economic growth was put at about three per cent in the 2019 budget.

He said while the economy might have been out of recession, the government was implementing various measures to accelerate the trajectory for growth.

He said, “We are projecting a 3.01 per cent growth (in GDP). Often times, I hear Nigerians asking whether we can meet this growth.

“This is the minimum level of growth we should be aiming, going by the rate which our population was growing.

“If we are growing at anything below the rate the population is growing, it will not be felt and that is why a lot of people do not feel the economy is growing.

“It is not surprising that you don’t feel it, because last quarter, the economy grew by 1.8 per cent and population was growing significantly higher than that.

“So until we restore growth to seven per cent or preferably double digit, the vast majority of Nigerians are not going to feel any growth. So that’s the debate we should be having.”

Speaking on the 2019 budget which was presented to the National Assembly by President Muhammadu Buhari, he said that the budget was based on oil production of 2.3 million barrels per day, an oil benchmark price of $60 per barrel and exchange rate of N305 to a dollar.

He said other key economic parameters underlining the budget were the plan to bring down inflation to 9.98 per cent, nominal consumption of N119.28tn, nominal Gross Domestic Product of N139.65tn and a GDP growth rate of 3.01 per cent.

There had been concerns that the $60 per barrel benchmark price might be too ambitious following the recent fluctuation in the international oil market.

The price of crude oil had dropped to below the $60 per barrel budget benchmark.

Based on a production volume of 2.3 million barrels per day and with a budget benchmark of $60 per day, the Federal Government is targeting to earn about N3.68tn revenue from oil next year.

But reacting to the development, the DG Budget said that the drop in oil price might not reflect the outlook for 2019.

He said that the Federal Government was monitoring developments in the global oil market and would not hesitate to make adjustments when there was need for such.

When asked what impact was the level of corruption and Public Procurement Act having on budget implementation, the DG budget said there was a need to amend the procurement law.

He said the 15 per cent contract cost provision which the Act stipulated to be used in mobilising contractor was too small.

He said with the apathy of banks in providing loans to contractors to execute government projects, there was the need for increase in mobilisation cost.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Discontent Among Electricity Consumers as Band A Prioritization Leads to Supply Shortages

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In Nigeria, discontent among electricity consumers is brewing as Band A prioritization by distribution companies (DisCos) exacerbates supply shortages for consumers in lower tariff bands.

The move follows the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission’s (NERC) decision to increase tariffs for customers in Band A, prompting DisCos to focus on meeting the needs of Band A customers to avoid sanctions.

Band A customers, who typically receive 20 to 24 hours of electricity supply daily, are now benefiting at the expense of consumers in Bands C, D, and E, who experience significant reductions in power supply.

The situation has ignited frustration among these consumers, who feel marginalized and neglected by DisCos.

Daily Trust investigations reveal that many consumers in lower tariff bands are experiencing prolonged power outages, despite their expectations of a minimum supply duration.

Residents like Christy Emmanuel from Lugbe, Abuja, and Damilola Akanbi from Life Camp are lamenting receiving less than the promised hours of electricity, rendering it ineffective for their daily needs.

Adding to the challenge is the low electricity generation, forcing DisCos to ration power across the grid.

As of recent records, only 3,265 megawatts were available, leading to further difficulties in meeting the demands of all consumers.

The prioritization of Band A customers has been confirmed by officials from DisCos, citing directives from the government to avoid sanctions from NERC.

An anonymous official from the Kaduna Electricity Distribution Company highlighted the pressure from the government to ensure Band A customers receive the required supply, even if it means neglecting other bands.

Meanwhile, the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) has denied reports blaming it for power shortages to Band A customers. General Manager Ndidi Mbah clarified that recent outages were due to technical faults and adverse weather conditions, outside of TCN’s control.

Experts have criticized the DisCos’ prioritization strategy, arguing that it neglects the needs of consumers in lower tariff bands. Bode Fadipe, CEO of Sage Consulting & Communications, emphasized that DisCos cannot ignore the financial contributions from these bands, which sustain the sector.

Chinedu Amah, founder of Spark Nigeria, urged for optimized supply across all bands, emphasizing the importance of improving service levels for all consumers.

As discontent grows among electricity consumers, calls for fair distribution of power and equitable treatment from DisCos are gaining momentum.

The situation underscores the need for regulatory intervention to address the concerns of all stakeholders and ensure a balanced approach to electricity distribution in Nigeria

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China’s Economic Growth Surges to 5.3% in Q1, But Challenges Loom Ahead

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China has kicked off the year with positive economic growth as its gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.3% in the first quarter.

However, beneath this headline figure lies a story of both resilience and vulnerability as mixed data signals suggest that the road ahead may not be smooth sailing for the world’s second-largest economy.

The latest figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics indicate that China’s economy experienced a slight acceleration from the previous quarter, surpassing analyst estimates.

Much of the growth momentum was concentrated in the early months of the year with March painting a more subdued outlook.

In March, growth in retail sales slumped and industrial output decelerated below forecasts, pointing towards potential challenges on the horizon.

Xiaojia Zhi, Chief China Economist at Credit Agricole, said “Markets may find it hard to be convinced by the strong GDP growth print and difficult to reconcile with the mixed March data.”

Concerns linger that policymakers may become complacent if GDP growth remains above 5%, potentially stalling further policy easing measures.

China’s economic landscape is a tale of two narratives. On one hand, manufacturing remains resilient, buoyed by robust overseas demand and Beijing’s emphasis on fostering advanced technologies domestically.

However, a prolonged real estate crisis coupled with factory prices in deflation for over a year underscore the fragility of domestic demand and excess capacity in certain industries.

The response from economists has been varied but generally optimistic. DBS Group Holdings Ltd raised its forecast for China’s annual growth from 4.5% to 5% following the release of the data, aligning it with the government’s annual target.

Nathan Chow, Senior Economist at the bank, cited stronger-than-expected US demand and improvements in the labor market as reasons for the upgrade.

Despite the encouraging GDP figures, challenges persist. Philipp Hildebrand, Vice Chairman at BlackRock Inc., highlighted the lack of domestic demand and deflationary pressures as significant hurdles.

Moreover, tensions with major trading partners, particularly the US and Germany, have escalated, with concerns over an influx of cheap exports.

Looking ahead, policymakers face the daunting task of stabilizing the property market and stimulating consumer spending.

Efforts such as a proposed trade-in program aim to boost domestic demand by incentivizing businesses and households to invest in new machinery and appliances.

However, monetary policy support may be constrained by the robust performance of the US economy. With the likelihood of a US Federal Reserve rate cut diminishing, China’s central bank may have limited room for further easing.

Nonetheless, the recent loosening of the grip on the Chinese yuan suggests a degree of flexibility in response to evolving economic conditions.

China’s economic growth in the first quarter may have surpassed expectations, but the challenges ahead require proactive measures to navigate.

As the nation strives to maintain momentum amidst a complex global landscape, policymakers and market participants alike remain vigilant, aware that the path to sustained growth may require careful navigation through turbulent waters.

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Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 33.20% in March Despite Economic Mitigation Measures

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Nigeria's Inflation Rate - Investors King

Economic uncertainty in Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria, continued to push inflation higher in March despite efforts to ease rising consumer prices.

The Consumer Price Index, which measures the inflation rate, quickened to 33.20 percent in March, according to the latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

This represents an increase of 1.50 percent from 31.70 percent reported in February.

On a yearly basis, the inflation rate was 11.16 percent higher when compared to the 22.04 percent filed in March 2023, indicating a broad-based increase in headline inflation.

However, on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate increased at a slower pace in March compared to the previous month. In March, the inflation rate stood at 3.02%, while in February, it was 3.12%

Food Inflation

Prices of food items increased at 40.01% year-on-year basis in March 2024 from 24.45% achieved in March 2023.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) attributed the increase to the rise in prices of the following items Garri, Millet, Akpu Uncooked Fermented (which are under the Bread and Cereals class), Yam Tuber, Water Yam (under Potatoes, Yam, and other Tubers class), Dried Fish Sadine, Mudfish Dried (under Fish class), Palm Oil, Vegetable Oil (under Oil and Fat), Beef Feet, Beef Head, Liver (under Meat class), Coconut, Water Melon (under Fruit Class), Lipton Tea, Bournvita, Milo (under Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Class).

On a monthly basis, the food inflation rate grew at a slower rate of 3.62 percent in March, a 0.17 percent decrease compared to the 3.79 percent recorded in February 2024.

The fall in Food inflation on a Month-on-Month basis was caused by a fall in the rate of increase in the average prices of Guinea corn flour, Plantain Flour etc (under Bread and Cereals class), Yam, Irish Potatoe, Coco Yam (under Potatoes, Yam & Other Tubers class), Titus fish, Mudfish Dried (under Fish class), Lipton, Bournvita, Ovaltine (under Coffee, Tea and Cocoa class).

The average annual rate of Food inflation for the twelve months ending March 2024 over the previous twelve-month average was 31.40%, which was 8.69% points increase from the average annual rate of change recorded in March 2023 (22.72%).

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