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Investors’ Fears Over Elections to Fade in February ―Analysts

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  • Investors’ Fears Over Elections to Fade in February ―Analysts

Analysts at Meristem Securities Limited have said the apprehensions that investors have about the forthcoming elections are expected to fade in February.

In a report, titled, ‘Resilience in vulnerability’, the analysts said they expected 2019 to be driven by similar factors that shaped 2018 but with a slight twist.

According to the report, although apprehensions about the election are expected to fade by February, contentions about the result, whichever it goes, have the potential to keep the market within a tight range bound trading in the first quarter of the year.

It said concerns about the United States slipping into recession in the medium term, expected slower pace of Fed rate hike, and progress towards resolutions of the challenges that crippled major emerging market economies in 2018 could trigger a bet on EMEs, and consequently the Nigerian market, but not until mid-year.

The analysts said corporate earnings were projected to be mixed and not strong enough to drive the market except in dividend seasons.

They said, “Offset to these upsides are country risks emanating from mounting debt profile, lower oil price outlook relative to 2018 and the impact on foreign exchange reserves at a time the defence of the currency is paramount.

“On the balance of factors, we are bearish on the first quarter, progressively positive from a neutral early second quarter to a bullish mid-year into the end of the year. Our models project a 2019 3.7 per cent, which is largely hinged on a low baseline.”

The analyst noted that the equities market opened 2018 with the euphoria of the 42 per cent gains in the Nigerian Stock Exchange All-Share Index in 2017 driving sentiments further higher.

They said the market accelerated at a pace that could not be supported by any fundamental driver as there were no revisions in consensus corporate earnings outlook, no optimism on macroeconomic variables and no respite in the political space.

The ASI, by the second week of 2018, hit the highest weekly gain since April 2015, and by the end of January, had reported the seventh highest monthly gains in 33 years.

The analysts said, “Within the first 14 trading days, no fewer than 39 stocks had gained equivalent of the yield on 364-day Treasury bills issued same day. However, a painful correction kicked with serial monthly losses from February through November, with the exception of June in which the ASI inched up by 0.46 per cent.

“Weak corporate earnings, contagion from EMEs and the attendant capital flight, apprehensions ahead of the 2019 general elections combined to send the ASI 17.81 per cent underwater in 2018. This, however, is half the story.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economic Downturn Triggers Drop in Nigerian Air Cargo Activities

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Activity in Nigeria’s air cargo sector declined with cargo volumes dwindling across airports in the country.

The decline fueled by a myriad of factors including rising production costs, diminished purchasing power, and elevated exchange rates, has underscored the broader economic strain facing the nation.

Throughout 2023, key players in the sector, such as the Nigerian Aviation Handling Company (NAHCO) and the Skyway Aviation Handling Company (SAHCO), reported notable decreases in their total tonnage figures compared to the previous year.

NAHCO recorded a six percent decline in total tonnage to 61.09 million kg, while SAHCO’s total tonnage decreased to 63.56 million kg. These declines were observed across various services, including import, export, and courier.

According to industry experts, the downturn in cargo volumes can be attributed to the escalating costs of production, which have soared due to various factors such as higher diesel prices, increased supply chain costs, and fuel surcharges.

Also, the adverse impact of elevated exchange rates, influenced by Central Bank of Nigeria’s policies on Customs Currency Exchange Platform, has further exacerbated the situation.

Seyi Adewale, CEO of Mainstream Cargo Limited, highlighted the challenges facing the industry, pointing to higher local transport and distribution costs, as well as the closure of production/manufacturing companies.

Adewale also noted government policies aimed at promoting local sourcing of raw materials, which have added to the complexities faced by cargo operators.

The broader economic downturn has led to a contraction in Nigeria’s economy, with imports declining as a response to the prevailing economic conditions.

Ikechi Uko, organizer of the Aviation and Cargo Conference (CHINET), emphasized the shrinking economy and reduced import activities, which have had a ripple effect on air cargo volumes.

Furthermore, the scarcity of foreign exchange and trapped funds experienced by carriers have contributed to the decline in cargo operations.

Major cargo airlines, including Cargolux, Saudi Cargo, and Emirates Cargo, have ceased operations in Nigeria, leaving Turkish Airlines as one of the few carriers still operating, albeit on a limited scale.

The absence of freighter cargo airlines has forced importers and exporters to resort to chartering cargo planes at exorbitant rates, further straining the air cargo sector.

 

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Point of Sale Operators to Challenge CAC Directive in Court

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Point of Sale (PoS) operators in Nigeria are gearing up for a legal battle against the Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC) as they contest the legality of a directive mandating registration with the commission.

The move comes amidst a growing dispute over regulatory oversight and the interpretation of existing laws governing business operations in the country.

Led by the National President of the Association of Mobile Money and Bank Agents in Nigeria, Fasasi Sarafadeen, PoS operators have expressed staunch opposition to the CAC directive, arguing that it oversteps its jurisdiction and violates established legal provisions.

Sarafadeen, in a statement addressing the matter, emphasized that the directive from the CAC contradicts the Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA) of 2004, which explicitly states that the commission does not have jurisdiction over individuals operating as sole proprietors.

“The order to enforce CAC directive on individual PoS agents operating under their name is wrong and will be challenged,” Sarafadeen asserted, citing section 863(1) of CAMA, which delineates the commission’s scope of authority.

According to Sarafadeen, the PoS operators are prepared to take their case to court to seek legal redress, highlighting their commitment to upholding their rights and challenging what they perceive as regulatory overreach.

“We shall challenge it legally. The court will have to intervene in the interpretation of the quoted section of the CAMA if individuals operating as a sub-agent must register with CAC,” Sarafadeen stated, emphasizing the association’s determination to pursue a legal resolution.

The crux of the dispute lies in the distinction between individual and non-individual PoS agents. Sarafadeen clarified that while non-individual agents, operating under registered or unregistered business names, are subject to CAC registration requirements, individual agents conducting business under their names fall outside the commission’s purview.

“Individual agents operate under their names and are typically profiled with financial institutions under their names,” Sarafadeen explained.

“It is this second category of agents that the Corporate Affairs Commission can enforce the law on.”

Moreover, Sarafadeen highlighted the integral role of sub-agents within the PoS ecosystem, noting that they function as independent branches of registered companies and should not be subjected to the same regulatory scrutiny as non-individual agents.

“Sub-agents are not carrying out as an independent company but branches of a company,” Sarafadeen clarified, urging for a nuanced understanding of the operational dynamics within the fintech and agent banking industry.

In addition to challenging the CAC directive, Sarafadeen emphasized the need for regulatory bodies to prioritize addressing broader issues affecting businesses in Nigeria, such as the high failure rate of registered enterprises.

“The Corporate Affairs Commission should prioritize addressing the alarming failure rate of registered businesses in Nigeria, rather than targeting sub-agents,” Sarafadeen asserted, calling for a shift in regulatory focus towards fostering a conducive business environment.

As PoS operators prepare to navigate the complex legal terrain ahead, their decision to challenge the CAC directive underscores a broader struggle for regulatory clarity and accountability within Nigeria’s burgeoning fintech sector.

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NNPC E&P Ltd and NOSL Begin Oil Production at OML 13, Akwa Ibom State

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NNPC Exploration and Production Limited (NNPC E&P Ltd) and Natural Oilfield Services Limited (NOSL) have commenced oil production at Oil Mining Lease 13 (OML 13) located in Akwa Ibom State.

The announcement came through a statement signed by Olufemi Soneye, the spokesperson of NNPC E&P Ltd, highlighting the collaborative effort between the flagship upstream subsidiary of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and NOSL, a subsidiary of Sterling Oil Exploration & Energy Production Company Limited.

The production, which officially began on May 6, 2024, saw an initial output of 6,000 barrels of oil. The partners aim to ramp up production to 40,000 barrels per day by May 27, 2024, reflecting their commitment to enhancing Nigeria’s crude oil production capacity.

Soneye said the first oil flow from OML 13 shows the dedication of NNPC E&P Ltd and NOSL to drive growth and development in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

He stated, “The achievement does not only signify the culmination of rigorous planning and execution by the teams involved but also represents a new era of economic empowerment and development opportunities for the host communities.”

For Nigeria, the commencement of oil production at OML 13 holds immense significance. It contributes to the country’s efforts to increase its oil production capacity, essential for meeting domestic energy needs and driving economic growth.

Moreover, Soneye reiterated NNPC E&P Ltd and NOSL’s commitment to operating in a safe, environmentally responsible, and community-beneficial manner.

This partnership underscores their dedication to sustainable practices and fostering positive impacts in the local communities where they operate.

The commencement of oil production at OML 13 marks a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry, signifying not only increased production capacity but also the collaborative efforts between industry players to drive growth and development in the nation’s vital energy sector.

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