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Falling Oil Prices, Threat to Economy — LCCI

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  • Falling Oil Prices, Threat to Economy — LCCI

The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry has said that if the trend of declining global oil price continues, it will pose a major risk to the Federal Government’s economic projections for 2019 fiscal year and adversely impact its Medium Term Expenditure Framework.

The chamber noted also that the situation would further threaten the current minimum wage negotiation between the government and organised labour.

Data from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries show that oil prices were trending down at $59.96p/bl on November 29 from $88p/bl one month ago. This is below 2019-2021 MTEF benchmark of $60p/bl.

Analysts have described the slump in oil prices as the equivalent of a tax hike and tax cut in oil exporting and importing economics respectively.

According to estimates by Capital Economics analysts, every $10-per-barrel fall in oil prices boosts incomes by about 0.5 to 0.7 per cent in the Gross Domestic Product of major emerging market oil importers.

LCCI noted that the same discount would cause a three to five per cent decline in the GDP of most of the Gulf economies, and a slowdown of 1.5-2 per cent of GDP in Russia and Nigeria on an annualised basis.

“This is not good news for the Nigerian economy which remains fragile with Gross Domestic Product growth of less than two per cent,” it said in a statement signed by its Director- General, Muda Yusuf, on Monday.

Speaking further, Yusuf warned that the domestic foreign exchange market was already responding to recent sharp fall in oil prices, citing the drop in the local currency from N363/$ to N370/$ in the parallel market.

He said, “There are fears that the sharp fall in oil prices if sustained could lead to a shortage of the United States dollar as capital flow reversals intensify, as oil price weakens, and as foreign reserves come under pressure.

“There are worries that the capacity of the Central Bank of Nigeria to sustain the current levels of intervention in the forex market will be tested. Reserves currently stand at $42bn, down from $48bn five months ago.

“The improvement in liquidity and relative stability in forex market witnessed by businesses in 2018 will come under threat due to declining receipts from oil.

“This will have profound impact on the prices of imported goods and services leading to likely increase in the rate of inflation.”

He added that the fiscal operations of government would be adversely affected, further threatening the on-going discussion around new minimum wage.

He added, “Despite sustained efforts by government to improve the business environment, Foreign Direct Investment inflows remain stagnated. The capital account faces significant uncertainty, as external portfolio investors exercise further caution due to developments in the global financial markets and the forthcoming general elections in 2019.”

The LCCI DG listed some key policy reforms that should be adopted by the government to support and sustain the stability of the macroeconomic environment.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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