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Consumer Confidence Projected to Rise in Q4

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consumer goods
  • Consumer Confidence Projected to Rise in Q4

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Consumer Expectation Survey (CES) has predicted a positive outlook for next quarter as well as the next 12 months.

Specifically, the index projected 24.7 and 30.1 points for next quarter and the next 12 months respectively.

The outlook, which was contained in the third quarter Consumer Confidence, attributed the Q4 projection to expected increase in net household income as well as the anticipated improvement in Nigeria’s economic conditions and expectations to save a bit and/or have plenty over savings in the next 12 months.

Most respondents expected prices of goods and services to rise in the next 12 months, with an index point of 16.7 points.

The major drivers were: transportation, education, medical care, electricity, house rent, and telecommunications.

The overall buying conditions index for consumers last quarter for big ticket items stood at 35.1 points.

This indicated that majority of consumers believed that last quarter was not the ideal time to purchase big-ticket items like consumer durables, motor vehicles, among others.

“Overall buying intention index in the next twelve months stood at 46.4 index points, indicating that majority of consumers do not intend to buy these items in the next 12 months.

“The buying intention indices for motor vehicle and house & lot were below 50 points, indicating that respondents have no plans to purchase motor vehicles and houses in the next twelve months.

“However, the index for consumer durables stood above 50, indicating that respondents have plans to purchase furniture, gas cooker and electronics in the next twelve months,” it added.

It further noted that with indices of -2.6 and 16.4 points, consumers expected borrowing rate to fall while the naira was expected to appreciate in the next 12 months.

The unemployment index for the next 12 months remained positive at 25 points in Q3 2018, indicating that majority of the consumers expect the unemployment rate to rise in the next 12 months.

The CES for Q3 2018 was conducted during the period September 24 – October 4, 2018, covering a sample size of 1,770 households drawn from 207 Enumeration Areas (EAs) across the country, with a response rate of 96.9 per cent.

Respondents’ distribution by educational attainment showed that 14.8 per cent had university education, 14.8 per cent had higher non-university education, while 26.8 per cent had senior secondary school education. Respondents with junior secondary and primary school education accounted for 6.8 and 18.9 per cent, respectively, while those with no formal education accounted for the balance of 17.9 per cent.

The consumers’ overall confidence outlook improved in Q3 2018, as more consumers were optimistic in their outlook.

The index at 1.5 points was 12.0 points higher than the index in the corresponding period of 2017. Some respondents attributed this favourable outlook to improved economic condition.

The overall consumer confidence index was computed as the average of the three indices, namely: Economic Condition, Family Financial Situation and Family Income.

Economic Condition refers to the perception of the respondent regarding the general economic condition of the country.

Financial Situation refers to the level of savings, investments, other assets including cash at hand and outstanding debts.

Family Income includes primary income and receipts from other sources received by all family members as participants in any economic activity or as recipients of transfers, pensions, grants, and the like.

The confidence index or diffusion index is computed as the percentage share of respondents that answered in the affirmative less the percentage share of respondents that answered negative in a given indicator.

A positive CI indicates that respondents with a favourable view outnumber those with an unfavourable view, except for unemployment, change in prices and interest rate for borrowing money, where a positive CI indicates the opposite.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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gold bars - Investors King

Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Hold Firm Despite Middle East Tensions

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Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, oil prices remained resilient, holding steady above key levels on Tuesday.

Brent crude oil traded above $87 a barrel after a slight dip of 0.3% on the previous trading day, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $82 a barrel.

The stability in oil prices comes amidst a backdrop of positive sentiment across global markets, with signs of strength in various sectors countering concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

One of the factors supporting oil prices is the weakening of the US dollar, which makes commodities priced in the currency more attractive to international investors.

Concurrently, equities experienced gains, contributing to the overall positive market sentiment.

However, geopolitical risks persist as Israel intensifies efforts to eliminate what it claims is the last stronghold of Hamas in Gaza and secure the release of remaining hostages.

These actions are expected to keep tensions elevated in the region, adding uncertainty to oil markets.

Despite the geopolitical tensions, options markets have shown a more optimistic outlook in recent days regarding the potential for a spike in oil prices. This suggests that market participants are cautiously optimistic about the resolution of conflicts in the region.

Despite the lingering risks, oil prices have remained below the $90 per barrel price level, a level that many analysts consider significant, particularly as the summer months approach, typically known as the peak demand season for oil.

While prices have experienced some volatility, they have yet to reach the $90 threshold, prompting expectations of further increases later in the year.

Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle Group, expressed confidence in the potential for oil prices to surpass $100 per barrel, citing tight market conditions indicated by timespreads.

However, he also noted the importance of monitoring OPEC’s response to rising prices, as the organization may adjust production levels to stabilize the market.

Overall, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to pose risks to oil markets, the resilience of oil prices amidst these challenges underscores the complex interplay of global factors influencing commodity markets.

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