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Nigerian Crude Exports Set for Four-month High

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  • Nigerian Crude Exports Set for Four-month High

The nation’s oil exports are expected to rise to their highest in four months in October, on the back of supply of several larger grades coming back online following a series of pipeline outages in the last couple of months.

Loading of Nigerian crude will rise to 1.73 million barrels per day from September’s 1.41 million bpd. October’s will be the largest programme since June this year, but it is smaller than the 1.768 million bpd exported in October last year, according to Reuters.

The export plan comprised 57 cargoes, compared with 48 cargoes in September’s loading schedule, the report added.

Both the Qua Iboe and the Forcados streams will load fewer cargoes, while Bonny Light contains the same number of cargoes and Escravos will load one extra.

Exports of these three major streams will drop by 14 per cent in October to around 540,000 bpd from September’s 630,000 bpd rate.

The export plans showed several smaller streams would add at least one cargo in October, including Pennington, Okwori and Antan.

Nigerian oil export plans are prone to revisions and delays, with cargoes frequently pushed from one month to the next.

According to traders, the overhang of Nigerian oil cargoes continues to clear after a series of spot sales this week cut the existing surplus by more than half.

The number of unsold cargoes from the August and September programmes was said to have dropped to less than a dozen, from close to 30 at the start of the week.

Meanwhile, shipments of West African crude to Asia are expected to reach a record high in August, driven by a surge in demand from Indian refiners, who will take more oil from the region than at any time since mid-2015.

According to a Reuters’ survey of shipping fixtures and traders, some 890,000 bpd of West African crude will sail to India, compared with 600,000 bpd in July and almost double last August’s 460,000 bpd.

Total loading for Asia will rise to 2.586 million bpd this month from 2.44 million bpd in July and 2.176 million bpd last August.

Indian Oil Corporation Limited took nearly half the total for India, while the privately held Reliance Industries took three cargoes, and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited took one each.

Of the 15 cargoes that will go to India, at least nine will hold Nigerian grades, including Qua Iboe, Agbami and Usan.

China’s daily intake dropped to its lowest since May this year at 1.419 million bpd from 1.571 million bpd in July, reflecting a modest slowdown in refinery intake and less favourable shipping economics.

Some 60 per cent of crude that will head to China is Angolan.

The premium of Brent crude futures to benchmark Dubai futures has widened this month to almost $2.00 from less than $1.00 in late July, while the premium to the US crude futures has also crept out towards $6.00 from near $2.50 a month ago.

The relatively strong performance of Brent futures to other regional benchmarks means it has been cheaper for Asian buyers to take in the likes of the US shale or other Middle East grades at the expense of typical West African grades.

However, the drop in the value of the currencies against the US dollar of a number of key commodity importers, such as China and India, over the course of August might prompt a decline in flows in September and October, as buyers feel the pinch of an unfavourable foreign exchange rate.

“Despite the general weakness in emerging-market currencies, oil market players are relaxed about the potential adverse impact on global oil demand, especially now that the dollar is getting slightly weaker again,” a PVM Oil analyst, TamasVarga, said, adding, “This upbeat mood will probably change if the dollar strengthens again and this strength proves to be prolonged.”

India has seen the value of a barrel of oil rise by nearly 56 per cent in the last year and China, a rise of 47 per cent in local terms, compared with the 41 per cent rise in the dollar value of Brent to around $74 a barrel.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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