Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook August 20 – 24

Published

6 years ago

August 20, 2018

Forex Weekly Outlook August 20 – 24

Global uncertainty and rising interest rates in developed economies are dictating the direction of the currency market. The slow down in China, rising risk in emerging economies, global trade tensions and weak wage growth are some of the key factors that will decide the foreign exchange rate of most nations going forward.

In the Uk, the pound has been falling since the Bank of England raised policy rate to 0.75 percent despite the projected increase in domestic demand, surged in consumer spending, 14-month record high expansion in the construction sector and moderate manufacturing growth. Indicating that growing uncertainty surrounding the Brexit negotiations is overshadowing the underlying fundamentals, therefore, hurting business sentiment and economic growth.

In Canada, surge in domestic inflation boosted the odds of the Bank of Canada raising interest rate as soon as September. The inflation rate rose to 3 percent year-on-year in July, up from 2.5 percent from the previous month and beats analysts’ projection of 2.5 percent. This was after the central bank raised interest rate for the fourth time within a year in July, validating the central bank’s assessment of the economy — “that the economy is operating close to capacity and further rate hikes will be needed”.

In Australia, the unemployment rate declined to 5.3 percent, while wage growth and inflation rate remained below expectation. This, the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia said will hurt consumer spending in the near term, especially with the rising household debt. However, he expects wage growth to pick up gradually as the labour market gets tighter. The optimism he expressed during ‘Opening Statement to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics’ bolstered Australian dollar outlook.

But growing uncertainty in emerging economies like Turkey, Venezuela (after the government devalued the currency by 95 percent) etc is disrupting the outlook of emerging currencies.

Therefore, because of the pound’s broad sell-off following the possible “no deal comments”. The focus will be on pound’s pairs this week.

GBPCAD

After the head and shoulders pattern, the GBPCAD dropped 663 pips to set a new record low at 1.6593 for the year. But with the renewed interest in the Canadian dollar due to the projected rise in interest rates in September and strong economic outlook, we might see a further surge in sellers’ interest on GBPCAD. Enough to push price towards 1.6339 support level in coming days. Therefore, as long as price remains below 1.7054 resistant level, I am bearish on this pair and will be looking to jump in below the 1.6661 support.

GBPAUD

Similarly, the Australian dollar is a haven currency, therefore, enjoys rise in trade volume during a period of high uncertainty. Also, despite the weak consumer spending and sluggish wage growth, the surge in global commodity prices is supporting its economic growth. This week, I will be looking to sell the GBPAUD below the 1.7434 for 1.7274 support and expect a sustained break of that level to open up 1.7100 support level.

EURCAD

While the Euro gained back part of its lost ground against the Canadian dollar on Monday, due to the drop in the value of commodity-dependent currencies following Venezuela devaluation, it is unclear if the new momentum can be sustained. This is because the currency crisis in Turkey and the uncertainty about the planned budget in Italy could weigh on the Euro, especially if the planned US-China trade talks scheduled for this week fails.

Again, as long as price remains below the ascending channel as shown above, I will be looking to sell this pair for all the aforementioned reasons. The bearish trend started in March is likely to continue towards the 1.4799 support level now that the odds of the Bank of Canada raising rates in September is growing. However, I will be cautious because of the numerous events due this week.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 17th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Published

18 hours ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,560 and sold it at ₦1,550 on Thursday, May 16th, 2024.

This indicates a slight improvement in the Naira exchange rate when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

Buying Rate: ₦1,540
Selling Rate: ₦1,530

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Forex

SEC and ABCON Explore Collaboration for ‘Kolectyomoni’ Digital Currency Platform

Published

19 hours ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON) has initiated talks with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to explore collaboration on its upcoming digital currency market platform, ‘Kolectyomoni’.

This move was underscored during an official visit by ABCON representatives to the newly appointed Director General of the SEC, Dr. Timi Agama. Aminu Gwadabe, President of ABCON, conveyed the association’s eagerness to engage with SEC to ensure the smooth operation of its digital currency platform.

Gwadabe emphasized that ABCON recognizes the regulatory oversight of SEC in the financial sector and seeks its guidance to navigate the complexities of the digital currency market.

He pointed out that while digital currencies hold immense potential for financial inclusion and innovation, they also present regulatory challenges that require collaborative efforts between industry stakeholders and regulatory bodies.

Highlighting the significance of embracing digital currencies, Gwadabe noted, “The future of BDC’s business is digital currency.”

He stressed the growing adoption of digital currencies among Nigerians, citing statistics that reveal a rising number of participants in the digital currency ecosystem, with a substantial market size of $9 billion annually.

In response, Dr. Timi Agama expressed SEC’s openness to support and facilitate the growth of the digital currency sector in Nigeria.

He acknowledged ABCON’s initiative in launching the ‘Kolectyomoni’ platform and assured of SEC’s cooperation in providing regulatory guidance and oversight.

Agama reaffirmed SEC’s commitment to fostering innovation in the financial sector while ensuring investor protection and market integrity.

He underscored the importance of collaboration between regulators and industry players to develop robust frameworks that foster innovation and safeguard against potential risks.

Furthermore, Agama encouraged ABCON to finalize the development of the ‘Kolectyomoni’ digital currency platform and submit it to the SEC for thorough review and assessment by the technical team.

He emphasized the need for timely regulatory oversight to address emerging trends in the digital currency market and maintain regulatory compliance.

Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 16th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Published

2 days ago

May 16, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,530 and sold it at ₦1,520 on Wednesday, May 15th, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate compared to the current rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.