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Nigeria Risks Fresh Politics-induced Economic Crisis

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  • Nigeria Risks Fresh Politics-induced Economic Crisis

With the invasion of the National Assembly complex yesterday by men of the Department of State Services (DSS), the political environment may have triggered caution signals about investing in the country. The development, which investors perceived as akin to dismantling of democratic institutions, affected equities transactions yesterday at the bourse, worsening the stock market’s long running negative trend.

Specifically, while the stock market recorded marginal depreciation of N7 billion to N13.315 trillion on Monday from N13.322 trillion last Friday, it reacted sharply yesterday as the news of the invasion of the National Assembly filtered in, pushing the decline by N54 billion, from N13.315 trillion on Monday to N13.261 trillion.

This same mode, which took its toll on the economy in the period preceding 2015 elections, facilitated huge capital flight by both foreign and local investors, estimated in billions of dollars, with concomitant effect on the exchange rate.

A research analyst in a subsidiary of one of Nigeria’s big banks said aggravating the already weak economy would be worse than the recession that the country just exited. According to him, the ugly situation would have taken off but for the steady crude oil price and production. Renowned economist, Bismarck Rewane, said he was sure that from now onwards, the prices of equities would not come back to normal until the elections are over and the prices of the stocks begin to regain.

“Everybody knows that it is a four-year cycle. The investors have already discounted the politically-tensed situations in their risk premium. What would really affect the market more is the international interest rate, like that of the United States,” he said.

But an analyst, Egie Akpata, told The Guardian that the market confidence had been low for long due to economic issues, stressing that the current political stand-off could only worsen it.

“But I cannot estimate how far bad it can go. Of course, the stock market is small compared to the bond market, it will always take the hit. The stock market is the most sensitive, losing about N2 billion daily, against N7 billion daily gains sometime in the past. Clearly, something is not right.

“The foreign investors know that our elections are messy and credibility is not just a consideration and they have been leaving before now.”Dr. Olalekan Obademi said the invasion was a recipe for divestments and cautious approach, as the “political climate now is not facing a specific direction.”

“There is a lot of uncertainty about the country and 2019. Any serious investor is likely to hold back investments until the direction, in terms of governance, is clear. There is so much apprehension now about the elections and daily outlook is not helping the situation.

“The perception is that democracy is under threat and especially, Nigerians are apprehensive. Investments and investors are averse to uncertainty. In fact, any perceived dictatorship in an environment automatically switches players to cautious mode.”

Meanwhile, in another round of intervention, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has injected $210million into the inter-bank foreign exchange market to ensure the availability of forex and also meet customers’ requests in various segments.

At the trading yesterday, the CBN offered $100 million to authorised dealers in the wholesale segment of the market, while the Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) segment received $55 million. Customers requiring foreign exchange for invisibles such as tuition fees, medical payments and Basic Travel Allowance (BTA), among others, were allocated $55 million.

The bank’s Acting Director, Corporate Communications Department (CCD), Mr. Isaac Okorafor, confirmed the figures and reassured the public that the CBN would continue to intervene in the interbank foreign exchange market in line with its quest to sustain liquidity and maintain stability. He added that the steps taken so far by the apex bank in the management of forex had paid off, as reflected by reduction in the country’s import bills and accretion to its foreign reserves.

The naira exchange rate remained stable in the market, exchanging at an average of N360/$1 in the BDC segment.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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