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Kachikwu: Nigeria’s Refining Demand May Stretch Oil Production

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  • Kachikwu: Nigeria’s Refining Demand May Stretch Oil Production

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr. Ibe Kachikwu, has suggested that upcoming petroleum refining plants in Nigeria could place a lot of demand on the country’s oil production soon, such that it may find it difficult to meet the request of the soon-to-be completed refineries.

Kachikwu, also said the imminent recovery of refining capacity of the four refineries owned and operated by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) in Warri, Kaduna, and Port Harcourt, were part of the expected exert pressure on the country’s oil production which is currently around 2.3 million barrels per day (mb).

Government’s statistics had indicated Nigeria currently has a 445,000 barrels a day refining capacity solely accounted for by the NNPC’s four refineries.

This number is however projected to rise with the coming on stream of refineries such as the 650,000 barrels a day Dangote refinery; the Omsa Pillar Astex Company (OPAC) refinery in Delta; as well as the 12,000 barrels a day Azikel refinery, amongst others.

Kachikwu, however stated at a recent meeting at the State House in Abuja, where Nigeria and Niger Republic penned agreements to build a 150,000 barrels a day refinery in Katsina, that with crude supplies from Niger, as well as other refineries coming up, there would be little for exports.

He specifically predicted Nigeria could have challenges providing crude oil for the refineries when they all become operational.

His predictions were however supported by industry experts who suggested an immediate passage of the Petroleum Industry Governance Bill (PIGB) currently with President Muhammadu Buhari for assent, and other associate bills would pave the way for investments into more oil production and reserves increase.

“First you have the Agip refinery that studies are ongoing in Bayelsa that should cover the South-south corridor. You have the Port Harcourt refinery which when they finish refurbishing covers South-south and South-east.

“The Warri and Kaduna are all there including the Dangote in Lagos. About three marginal refineries with two coming on stream and seven with a potential of coming on stream over the next two years. Very soon our problem would be finding sufficient crude to match the requirements of a lot of these refineries,” said Kachikwu, in response to a question on refineries’ projects in the country.

He also spoke about the decision by Nigeria to partner Niger in the new border refinery project, as well as considerations for security in northern Nigeria, which has had terrorists’ attacks across its states in the last few years.

“The decision is to do a pipeline from Niger Republic into a Nigerian border town and construct a refinery with capacity probably between 100,000 and 150,000 barrels a day but it is all dependent on the Nigerien crude volumes.

“It depends on what they find, currently their number is enough to support about 60 to 70,000 barrels per day but lots of field that have been capped will be opened. We hope that as the project goes over the next two years, we will probably have more feed-stock to power a much bigger refinery,” the minister said.

He added: “It is Katsina and there is a potential for extension to Kaduna. Bear in mind this started first from wanting to build a pipeline from Niger to Kaduna refinery. At the board of NNPC we shut that down because the asset quality of the crude from Niger was not the same as our own quality crude.

“We decided to do a refinery that is targeted at the quality of their crude. The shorter the distance, the shorter the pipeline, the smaller the cost required for construction. So, that was the basis for selection.”

On concerns about insecurity, he said: “If we bother about insecurity we are not going to make progress. The security issues are there, we will deal with them. Niger hasn’t faced much of a security issue in terms of finding its crude, the distance in the pipeline corridor is going to be short and hopefully technology will bury it sufficiently not to be an issue.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

IOCs Stick to Dollar Dominance in Crude Oil Transactions with Modular Refineries

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Crude Oil - Investors King

International Oil Companies (IOCs) are standing firm on their stance regarding the currency denomination for crude oil transactions with modular refineries.

Despite earlier indications suggesting a potential shift towards naira payments, IOCs have asserted their preference for dollar dominance in these transactions.

The decision, communicated during a meeting involving indigenous modular refineries and crude oil producers, shows the complex dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy landscape.

While the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had previously hinted at the possibility of allowing indigenous refineries to purchase crude oil in either naira or dollars, IOCs have maintained a firm stance favoring the latter.

Under this framework, modular refineries would be required to pay 80% of the crude oil purchase amount in US dollars, with the remaining 20% to be settled in naira.

This arrangement, although subject to ongoing discussions, signals a significant departure from initial expectations of a more balanced currency allocation.

Representatives from the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said the decision was not unilaterally imposed but rather reached through deliberations with relevant stakeholders, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While there were initial hopes of broader flexibility in currency options, the dominant position of IOCs has steered discussions towards a more dollar-centric model.

Despite reservations expressed by some participants, including modular refinery operators, the consensus appears to lean towards accommodating the preferences of major crude oil suppliers.

The development underscores the intricate negotiations and power dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy sector, with implications for both domestic and international stakeholders.

As discussions continue, attention remains focused on how this decision will impact the operations and financial viability of modular refineries in Nigeria’s evolving oil landscape.

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Energy

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery Overtakes European Giants in Capacity, Bloomberg Reports

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Aliko Dangote - Investors King

The Dangote Refinery has surpassed some of Europe’s largest refineries in terms of capacity, according to a recent report by Bloomberg.

The $20 billion Dangote refinery, located in Lagos, boasts a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels of petroleum products per day, positioning it as a formidable player in the global refining industry.

Bloomberg’s data highlighted that the Dangote refinery’s capacity exceeds that of Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands by over 246,000 barrels per day. Making Dangote’s facility a significant contender in the refining industry.

The report also underscored the scale of Dangote’s refinery compared to other prominent European refineries.

For instance, the TotalEnergies Antwerp refining facility in Belgium can refine 338,000 barrels per day, while the GOI Energy ISAB refinery in Italy was built with a refining capacity of 360,000 barrels per day.

Describing the Dangote refinery as a ‘game changer,’ Bloomberg emphasized its strategic advantage of leveraging cheaper U.S. oil imports for a substantial portion of its feedstock.

Analysts anticipate that the refinery’s operations will have a transformative impact on Nigeria’s fuel market and the broader region.

The refinery has already commenced shipping products in recent weeks while preparing to ramp up petrol output.

Analysts predict that Dangote’s refinery will influence Atlantic Basin gasoline markets and significantly alter the dynamics of the petroleum trade in West Africa.

Reuters recently reported that the Dangote refinery has the potential to disrupt the decades-long petrol trade from Europe to Africa, worth an estimated $17 billion annually.

With a configured capacity to produce up to 53 million liters of petrol per day, the refinery is poised to meet a significant portion of Nigeria’s fuel demand and reduce the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and the visionary behind the refinery, has demonstrated his commitment to revolutionizing Nigeria’s energy landscape. As the Dangote refinery continues to scale up its operations, it is poised to not only bolster Nigeria’s energy security but also emerge as a key player in the global refining industry.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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