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Farmers, Herders Crisis’ll Push up Food Prices, CBN Warns

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agriculture
  • Farmers, Herders Crisis’ll Push up Food Prices, CBN Warns

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria on Tuesday called on the Federal Government to address the crisis between farmers and herders, warning that if left unchecked, it would exert inflationary pressure on the economy.

The committee expressed this concern in a communique issued at the end of its two-day meeting held at the headquarters of the CBN in Abuja.

Announcing the decisions of the committee, the CBN Governor, Mr Godwin Emefiele, said the MPC urged the government to arrest the clashes between the farmers and herders so as to sustain the moderation in food inflation.

He stated, “The committee took note of the sustained moderation in inflation pressure, especially the headline inflation as well as stability in the foreign exchange market, but expressed concern over the threat posed by incessant herders and farmers’ crises in some key food producing states and the negative impact on some key food supply chains, which would continue to exact pressure on food prices.

“The committee therefore called on the bank to continue to build on the progress already made in arresting the trend to sustain the moderation in food inflation.”

The governor also said the committee called on the government to increase its fiscal buffers to cushion the threat of declining revenue in the future.

He stated that the recent increase in allocations from the Federation Account Allocation Committee to the three tiers of government was an indication that the government was not saving enough.

Emefiele said, “The MPC commended the approval of the Federal Government’s 2018 budget and called for its accelerated implementation to further support the fragile growth recovery. The committee also called for sustained implementation of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan to further stimulate output growth.

“The MPC was, however, concerned about the liquidity impact of the 2018 expansionary fiscal budget and increasing FAAC distributions due to rising prices of crude oil as well as the build-up in election related activities.

“In discussing the economic report presented to the committee, it was observed that as the prices of crude oil increased in 2017 and 2018, the monthly allocations to various levels of government also increased, suggesting that the Federal Government was not conscious of saving for the rainy day.

“The committee therefore advised the fiscal authorities to build the buffers, especially now that the price of crude oil is relatively high.”

On the Monetary Policy Rate, the governor stated that the committee decided to retain the current monetary policy stance in view of the liquidity injections that would occur from budget releases and election spending.

According to him, seven out of the 10 members of the MPC present at the meeting agreed to leave the MPR unchanged at 14 per cent.

Emefiele said two members voted that the rates be increased by 50 basis points, while one member voted for an increase by 25 basis points.

He stated that apart from the MPR, the committee also retained the Cash Reserve Ratio at 22.5 per cent.

Also retained were the Liquidity Ratio, which was left at 30 per cent; and the Asymmetric Window, which was unchanged at +200 and -500 basis points around the MPR.

Explaining the reason for the decision, Emefiele noted, “The committee strongly considered the option of tightening, believing that tightening will curtail the threat of a rise in inflation, even as the injection from the fiscal authorities will still provide the economy with substantial liquidity.

“This, the committee believes will rein in inflationary pressure and moderate inflation rate to single digit levels, increase real interest rate, build investors’ confidence and further stabilise the country’s exchange rate.”

On reason for not loosening the monetary policy stance, the governor said the committee accessed the potential effect of stimulating aggregate demand through lower cost of capital.

This, he noted, could stimulate consumption and aggregate demand.

He said, “The committee considered its potential relevance, taking into account the expected liquidity injection from the 2018 budget and increased FAAC disbursements and election related spending ahead of 2019 general elections.

“If this crystalizes, it will increase inflationary and exchange rate pressure as well as return interest rates into trajectory.

“Moreover, lowering policy rate may not translate to an automatic reduction in market rate due to poor transmission mechanisms.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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