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London FX Trading Volumes Hit Record, North America Rises in April

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Forex Weekly Outlook November 7-11
  • London FX Trading Volumes Hit Record, North America Rises in April

Daily trading volumes in the world’s biggest foreign exchange trading center, London, surged to a record in April as trading currency swaps and the British pound picked up, a semi-annual survey by the Bank of England showed on Tuesday.

Currency turnovers in North America, another major hub, posted strong gains from year-ago levels on broad growth across different foreign exchange instruments, according to New York Federal Reserve semiannual survey data also released on Tuesday.

“I think the data show that the secular trend of rising FX volumes comes into play again. It was interrupted after the (global financial crisis) and some regulatory measures that dampened spec FX activities, but it is not broken,” said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of FX and emerging market research at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt.

Traders’ perception of possibly less easy monetary policies from the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, while the Federal Reserve sticks to its gradual rate-hike path, spurred changes in their positions in the dollar, euro and the yen, analysts said.

Average daily forex turnover in London stood at $2.73 trillion in April, up 15 percent from six months ago, with swaps trading up 18 percent in that period versus an 8 percent rise in cash trading volumes.

Across the Atlantic, daily currency volumes averaged $993.55 billion in April, up 11.7 percent from a year ago, the New York Fed said.

London’s turnover in the British pound GBP=D3 rose to a record $351 billion, up 18 percent from October 2017 and nearly doubling from last year, as disappointment over the central bank not raising interest rates prompted traders to dump the pound against the dollar.

The British currency GBP=D3 rose to a post-Brexit referendum-vote high at $1.4377 in mid-April and fell nearly five percent until the end of the month, after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney signaled the central bank may not raise interest rates in May due to “mixed” economic data.

“April was a particularly bad month for sterling traders as Carney poured cold water on expectations of a rate hike by the market,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in London.

Daily turnover in the euro-dollar exchange rate jumped by 11 percent to $778 billion per day — the most-traded currency pair — for a market share of 29 percent of the total traded volumes. Chinese yuan trade almost doubled from a year ago, the report said.

In terms of market share, foreign exchange swaps comprised nearly half of total turnover in London, followed by cash trading and currency forwards.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 24th, 2024

As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

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naira

As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,250 and sell it at N1,240 on Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined slightly when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

  • Buying Rate: N1,260
  • Selling Rate: N1,250

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Naira

Nigeria’s Naira Dips 5.3% Against Dollar, Raises Concerns Over Reserve Levels

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New Naira notes

Nigerian Naira depreciated by 5.3% against the US dollar as concerns over declining foreign reserves raise questions about the central bank’s ability to sustain liquidity.

The local currency has now declined for the third consecutive day since the Naira retreated from its three-month high on Friday shortly after Bloomberg pointed out that the Naira gains were inversely proportional to foreign reserves’ growth.

According to data from Lagos-based FMDQ, the naira’s value dropped precipitously, halting its recent impressive performance.

The unofficial market saw an even steeper decline of 6%, extending the currency’s retreat over the past three trading days to a staggering 17%.

Abubakar Muhammed, Chief Executive of Forward Marketing Bureau de Change Ltd., expressed concerns over the sharp decline, highlighting the insufficient supply of dollars in the market.

Muhammed noted that despite a 27% increase in traded volume at the foreign exchange market on Monday, the supply remained inadequate, forcing the naira to soften further while excess demand shifted to the unofficial market.

The dwindling foreign exchange reserves have been a cause for alarm, with Nigeria’s gross dollar reserves steadily declining for 17 consecutive days to reach $32 billion as of April 19, the lowest level since September 2017.

This worrisome trend has raised questions about the adequacy of dollar inflows to rebuild reserves, especially after the central bank settled overdue dollar obligations earlier in the year.

Samir Gadio, Head of Africa Strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, pointed out that while the naira had been supported by onshore dollar selling, the rally was likely overextended.

Gadio warned that the emergence of a dislocation in the market, with domestic participants selling dollars at increasingly lower spot levels was unsustainable and necessitated a correction.

The central bank’s efforts to stabilize the naira have been evident with interventions aimed at improving liquidity.

However, the effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain, particularly as the central bank offered dollars to bureau de change operators at a rate 17% below the official rate tracked by FMDQ.

Analysts, including Ayodeji Dawodu from Banctrust Investment Bank, foresee further challenges ahead, predicting that the naira will likely stabilize around 1,500 against the dollar by year-end.

Dawodu emphasized the importance of stabilizing the currency to attract strong foreign capital inflows, underscoring the significance of sustainable monetary policies in Nigeria’s economic recovery.

As Nigeria grapples with the repercussions of the naira’s depreciation and declining foreign reserves, policymakers face mounting pressure to implement measures that ensure stability and foster confidence in the economy.

The road ahead remains uncertain, with the fate of the naira intricately tied to Nigeria’s ability to address underlying economic vulnerabilities and bolster investor trust.

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Naira

CBN Sells Fresh Dollar to BDCs at N1,021/$

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Bureau De Change Operator

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has once again initiated direct sales of dollars to licensed Bureau De Change (BDC) operators across the country.

The latest circular from the apex bank announces the sale of $10,000 to each BDC at a rate of N1,021 per dollar.

This is the second round of such sales this month and the fourth in the current year.

The directive mandates BDCs to sell the allocated dollars to eligible end-users at a spread not exceeding 1.5 percent above the purchase price, translating to a maximum selling price of N1,036.15 per dollar.

Addressing concerns about adherence to guidelines, the CBN said it is important for BDC operators to work within the prescribed framework.

The intervention targets retail-end transactions, including travel allowances, tuition fees, and medical payments, among others.

BDCs are instructed to commence payment of the Naira deposit to designated CBN accounts and submit necessary documentation for FX disbursement at respective CBN branches.

This latest initiative follows previous interventions by the CBN, including the sale of $10,000 to BDCs earlier this month at N1,101 per dollar. Such measures aim to shore up the Naira’s value and ensure stability in the forex market amid economic uncertainties.

The CBN’s sustained efforts to provide adequate forex liquidity underscore its commitment to safeguarding the country’s currency and facilitating seamless foreign exchange transactions for businesses and individuals alike.

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