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G20 Calls for Stepped-up Trade Dialogue; no Agreement on Path Forward

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  • G20 Calls for Stepped-up Trade Dialogue; no Agreement on Path Forward

Global finance leaders called on Sunday for stepped-up dialogue to prevent trade and geopolitical tensions from hurting growth, but ended a two-day G20 meeting with little consensus on how to resolve multiple disputes over U.S. tariff actions.

The finance ministers and central bank governors from the world’s 20 largest economies warned that growth, while still strong, was becoming less synchronized and downside risks over the short- and medium-term had increased.

“These include rising financial vulnerabilities, heightened trade and geopolitical tensions, global imbalances, inequality and structurally weak growth, particularly in some advanced economies,” the G20 finance officials said in a communique.

“We … recognize the need to step up dialogue and actions to mitigate risks and enhance confidence,” the communique said.

This marked a strengthening of language compared to their previous statement issued in March, in which they simply “recognize the need for further dialogue.”

“The latest language suggests a great deal of urgency about resolving these issues,” Australia Treasurer Scott Morrison told Reuters in an interview, adding that the ministers had made it clear in the discussion that they were concerned about “tit-for-tat measures” and that open trade was the goal.

“The language previously had been a bit ambiguous about that, a bit sheepish,” Morrison added.

The weekend talks in Buenos Aires came at a time of escalating rhetoric in the trade conflict between the United States and China, the world’s largest economies, which have so far slapped tariffs on $34 billion worth of each other’s goods.

U.S. President Donald Trump raised the stakes on Friday with a threat to impose tariffs on all $500 billion of Chinese exports to the United States unless Beijing agrees to major structural changes to its technology transfer, industrial subsidy and joint venture policies.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told a news conference on Sunday that he had had no substantive discussions on trade with China’s finance minister, Liu Kun, at the G20 gathering, engaging mainly in “chit-chat.”

“Any time they want to sit down and negotiate meaningful changes, I and our team are available,” Mnuchin added.

The Chinese delegation did not speak to media at the G20 meeting.

G7 TRADE OVERTURES

Mnuchin focused instead on other trade relationships at the talks, including those with the European Union, Canada, Mexico and Japan.

He said G7 allies were taking seriously his calls to eliminate tariffs, non-tariff barriers and subsidies among the group, and the Trump administration would pursue such ideas in trade talks next week with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in Washington.

Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau called the dropping of barriers a “great idea” and an “aspirational target,” but said it would be challenging to execute because of historical economic differences.

Before any trade talks with the EU could begin, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire insisted that Washington first would need to drop its tariffs on steel and aluminum and stand down on a threat to impose auto tariffs.

European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs Pierre Moscovici told reporters that the meeting was not tense, but produced little movement from entrenched positions on trade.

“We were in mutual listening mode and I hope that this is the beginning of something,” Moscovici said. “But still the positions are not similar.”

Finance ministers for both Mexico and Canada said they saw optimism from Washington that an agreement to modernize the trilateral North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) could be reached in coming months after talks stalled.

ALLIES ANGERED

Trump has angered allies by imposing import tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum, sparking retaliatory tariffs from the EU and Canada on a range of U.S. products.

Trump, who frequently criticizes Europe’s 10 percent car tariffs, is also studying adding a 25 percent levy on auto imports, which would hit both Europe and Japan hard.

Mnuchin said he did not feel isolated at the G20, holding numerous bilateral meetings with officials, and arguing that Trump’s trade stance was not based on protectionism, but on trying to make trade fairer.

“We very much support the idea that trade is important to the global economy, but it’s got to be on fair and reciprocal terms,” he said.

Hubert Fuchs, European Council representative to the G20, said he welcomed Mnuchin’s candid approach, but said the United States “understands something different under fair and free trade.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Brent Approaches $83 as US Crude Inventories Decline

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As global oil markets remain volatile, Brent crude oil prices edged closer to the $83 per barrel price level following reports of a decline in US crude inventories.

The uptick in prices comes amidst ongoing concerns about supply constraints and rising demand, painting a complex picture for energy markets worldwide.

The latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) revealed a notable decrease of 3.1 million barrels in nationwide crude stockpiles for the previous week.

Also, there was a drawdown observed at the critical hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, a key indicator for market analysts tracking US oil inventories.

Investors and traders have been closely monitoring these inventory reports, seeking clues about the supply-demand dynamics in the global oil market.

The decline in US crude inventories has added to the optimism surrounding oil prices, pushing Brent towards the $83 threshold.

The positive sentiment in oil markets is also fueled by anticipation surrounding the upcoming report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Market participants are eager to glean insights from the IEA’s assessment, which is expected to shed light on supply-demand balances for the second half of the year.

However, the recent rally in oil prices comes against the backdrop of lingering concerns about inflationary pressures in the United States.

Persistent inflation has raised questions about the strength of demand for commodities like oil, leading to some caution among investors.

Furthermore, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) face their own challenges in navigating the current market dynamics.

The group is grappling with the decision of whether to extend production cuts at their upcoming meeting on June 1. Questions about member compliance with existing output quotas add another layer of complexity to the discussion.

Analysts warn that while the recent decline in US crude inventories is a positive development for oil prices, uncertainties remain.

Vishnu Varathan, Asia head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Singapore, highlighted the potential for “fraught and tense OPEC+ dynamics” as member countries seek to balance their economic interests with market stability.

As oil markets await the IEA report and US inflation data, the path forward for oil prices remains uncertain. Investors will continue to monitor inventory levels, demand trends, and geopolitical developments to gauge the future trajectory of global oil markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Dip on Sluggish Demand Signs and Fed’s Interest Rate Outlook

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Oil prices on Monday dipped as the U.S. Federal Reserve officials’ comments showed a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments.

The dip in prices reflects concerns over the outlook for global economic growth and its implications for energy consumption in the world’s largest economy.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, slipped by 7 cents or 0.1% to $82.72 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil stood at $78.21 per barrel, a 5 cents decline.

Auckland-based independent analyst Tina Teng highlighted that the oil market’s focus has shifted from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East to the broader world economic outlook.

Concerns arose as China’s producer price index (PPI) contracted in April, signaling continued sluggishness in business demand.

Similarly, recent U.S. economic data suggested a slowdown, further dampening market sentiment.

The discussions among Federal Reserve officials regarding the adequacy of current interest rates to stimulate inflation back to the desired 2% level added to market jitters.

While earlier in the week, concerns over supply disruptions stemming from the Israel-Gaza conflict had provided some support to oil prices, the attention has now turned to macroeconomic indicators.

Analysts anticipate that the U.S. central bank will maintain its policy rate at the current level for an extended period, bolstering the dollar.

A stronger dollar typically makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for investors holding other currencies, thus contributing to downward pressure on oil prices.

Furthermore, signs of weak demand added to the bearish sentiment in the oil market. ANZ analysts noted that U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories increased in the week preceding the start of the U.S. driving season, indicating subdued demand for fuel.

Refiners globally are grappling with declining profits for diesel, driven by increased supplies and lackluster economic activity.

Despite the prevailing challenges, expectations persist that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies, collectively known as OPEC+, may extend supply cuts into the second half of the year.

Iraq, the second-largest OPEC producer, expressed commitment to voluntary oil production cuts and emphasized cooperation with member countries to stabilize global oil markets.

However, Iraq’s suggestion that it had fulfilled its voluntary reductions and reluctance to agree to additional cuts proposed by OPEC+ members stirred speculation and uncertainty in the market.

ING analysts pointed out that Iraq’s ability to implement further cuts might be limited, given its previous shortfall in adhering to voluntary reductions.

Meanwhile, in the United States, the oil rig count declined to its lowest level since November, signaling a potential slowdown in domestic oil production.

As oil markets continue to grapple with a complex web of factors influencing supply and demand dynamics, investors and industry stakeholders remain vigilant, closely monitoring developments and adjusting their strategies accordingly in an ever-evolving landscape.

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Brent Crude Hovers Above $84 as Demand Rises in U.S. and China

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Brent crude oil continued its upward trajectory above $84 a barrel as demand in the United States and China, the two largest consumers of crude globally increased.

This surge in demand coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has bolstered oil markets, maintaining Brent crude’s resilience above $84 a barrel.

The latest data revealed a surge in demand, particularly in the U.S. where falling crude inventories coincided with higher refinery runs.

This trend indicates growing consumption patterns and a positive outlook for oil demand in the world’s largest economy.

In China, oil imports for April exceeded last year’s figures, driven by signs of improving trade activity, as exports and imports returned to growth after a previous contraction.

ANZ Research analysts highlighted the ongoing strength in demand from China, suggesting that this could keep commodity markets well supported in the near term.

The positive momentum in demand from these key economies has provided a significant boost to oil prices in recent trading sessions.

However, amidst these bullish indicators, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have added further support to oil markets. Reports of a Ukrainian drone attack setting fire to an oil refinery in Russia’s Kaluga region have heightened concerns about supply disruptions and escalated tensions in the region.

Also, ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip has fueled apprehensions of broader unrest, particularly given Iran’s support for Palestinian group Hamas.

Citi analysts emphasized the geopolitical risks facing the oil market, pointing to Israel’s actions in Rafah and growing tensions along its northern border. They cautioned that such risks could persist throughout the second quarter of 2024.

Despite the current bullish sentiment, analysts anticipate a moderation in oil prices as global demand growth appears to be moderating with Brent crude expected to average $86 a barrel in the second quarter and $74 in the third quarter.

The combination of robust demand from key economies like the U.S. and China, coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, continues to influence oil markets with Brent crude hovering above $84 a barrel.

As investors closely monitor developments in both demand dynamics and geopolitical events, the outlook for oil prices remains subject to ongoing market volatility and uncertainty.

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