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U.S. Oil Exports to India Soar Ahead of Sanctions on Iran

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  • U.S. Oil Exports to India Soar Ahead of Sanctions on Iran

U.S. crude oil exports to India hit a record in June and so far this year are almost double last year’s total as the Asian nation’s refiners move to replace supplies from Iran and Venezuela in a win for the Trump administration.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has been pressuring its allies to cut imports of Iranian goods to zero by November and India’s shift advances the U.S. administration efforts to use energy to further its political goals.

The United States has become a major crude exporter, sending 1.76 million barrels per day (bpd) abroad in April, according to the latest government figures.

All told, producers and traders in the United States will send more than 15 million barrels of U.S. crude to India this year through July, compared with 8 million barrels in all of 2017.

The exports to India could go higher if China imposes levies on its U.S. oil imports over the latest round of U.S. tariffs, which could damp Chinese purchases and lead U.S. crude prices lower.

A. K. Sharma, head of finance at Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS), the country’s top refiner, said U.S. crude is gaining appeal because of its lower cost, and could expand further if China cuts its imports of U.S. energy.

“If China levies a tariff on U.S. oil then U.S. imports to India will probably rise,” he said. “We are looking for a mini-term deal to buy three to four cargoes of U.S. oil over a period of three to six months instead of buying single cargoes.”

OPPORTUNITY FOR U.S.

Last month, India’s oil ministry asked refiners to prepare to limit imports of Iranian oil ahead of U.S. sanctions that take effect in November.

The United States is reimposing sanctions after withdrawing from a 2015 agreement with Iran, Russia, China and several Western European countries where Iran agreed to curtail its nuclear activities in return for the lifting of earlier sanctions.

Venezuelan crude shipments to the Asian country also fell 21 percent in the first half of this year as production has been hampered by inadequate investment, mismanagement and U.S. sanctions.

Adding to its exports crisis, the U.S. has been increasing sanctions on various Venezuelan nationals and companies, part of a campaign to pressure socialist President Nicolas Maduro to make political and market reforms.

Iran and Venezuela are among India’s top five oil suppliers.

Last month, India’s imports of Iranian crude fell by 16 percent from May, paring sharp year-over-year increases during the first half of this year.

The Trump administration plans to send a delegation in the coming months to India to discuss Iran sanctions and oil issues.

“Our focus is to work with those countries importing Iranian crude to get as many of them as possible down to zero by Nov. 4,” a U.S. State Department official said.

The world’s fourth largest refiner by capacity is “cutting back on Iranian crude imports,” said Reid l’Anson, an analyst at cargo tracking firm Kpler. “That’s an opportunity for U.S. producers to sell into the Indian market. Indian demand is quite robust.”

Reuters’ vessel tracking data show three of the eight tankers charted by Swiss and Chinese traders and sent to India in recent weeks were destined for a port near Reliance Industries Ltd (RELI.NS)’s Jamnagar refinery, the world’s largest. Three others are headed for undisclosed ports on India’s west coast from the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Reliance did not respond to a request for comment.

Swiss trader Vitol SA and Chinese oil companies including PetroChina (601857.SS) last month lifted four vessels carrying 6.83 million barrels combined to western India, according to Thomson Reuters trade flow data.

June’s 228,000 bpd of U.S. exports to India are more than double the previous export record of 98,000 bpd last September, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data.

The FPMC C Melody, a very large crude carrier (VLCC), is scheduled to arrive next month at Sikka, near Jamnagar. It is carrying 1.93 million barrels of U.S. crude, Reuters tracking data shows.

Another Vitol-chartered VLCC, the Maharah, sailed from Galveston last week and was headed to Sikka with 1.98 million barrels of oil.

Two more VLCCs – the Ghinah and the Eagle Victoria – were scheduled to leave the Texas coast for undisclosed ports in India this month, bringing planned U.S. oil exports to India to at least 191,000 bpd for the month.

Vitol and PetroChina declined to comment. A trader familiar with the Chinese company’s purchases confirmed PetroChina is supplying U.S. crude to India.

SHIFT UNDERWAY

Some Indian refiners have finished testing runs of U.S. oil this year, often by mixing it with heavier grades those plants typically process, analysts and traders said.

“They really have started to make the shift,” said Olivier Jakob, managing director of energy consultancy PetroMatrix. “India is comfortable with a regular flow from the U.S. now.”

Reliance is blending lighter U.S. oil with heavier crudes from other nations, said a trader familiar with plant operations and trade flows. Indian refiners began testing U.S. crudes last year, and volumes have climbed as they became confident the blends would work.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

IOCs Stick to Dollar Dominance in Crude Oil Transactions with Modular Refineries

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Crude Oil - Investors King

International Oil Companies (IOCs) are standing firm on their stance regarding the currency denomination for crude oil transactions with modular refineries.

Despite earlier indications suggesting a potential shift towards naira payments, IOCs have asserted their preference for dollar dominance in these transactions.

The decision, communicated during a meeting involving indigenous modular refineries and crude oil producers, shows the complex dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy landscape.

While the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had previously hinted at the possibility of allowing indigenous refineries to purchase crude oil in either naira or dollars, IOCs have maintained a firm stance favoring the latter.

Under this framework, modular refineries would be required to pay 80% of the crude oil purchase amount in US dollars, with the remaining 20% to be settled in naira.

This arrangement, although subject to ongoing discussions, signals a significant departure from initial expectations of a more balanced currency allocation.

Representatives from the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said the decision was not unilaterally imposed but rather reached through deliberations with relevant stakeholders, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While there were initial hopes of broader flexibility in currency options, the dominant position of IOCs has steered discussions towards a more dollar-centric model.

Despite reservations expressed by some participants, including modular refinery operators, the consensus appears to lean towards accommodating the preferences of major crude oil suppliers.

The development underscores the intricate negotiations and power dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy sector, with implications for both domestic and international stakeholders.

As discussions continue, attention remains focused on how this decision will impact the operations and financial viability of modular refineries in Nigeria’s evolving oil landscape.

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Energy

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery Overtakes European Giants in Capacity, Bloomberg Reports

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Aliko Dangote - Investors King

The Dangote Refinery has surpassed some of Europe’s largest refineries in terms of capacity, according to a recent report by Bloomberg.

The $20 billion Dangote refinery, located in Lagos, boasts a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels of petroleum products per day, positioning it as a formidable player in the global refining industry.

Bloomberg’s data highlighted that the Dangote refinery’s capacity exceeds that of Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands by over 246,000 barrels per day. Making Dangote’s facility a significant contender in the refining industry.

The report also underscored the scale of Dangote’s refinery compared to other prominent European refineries.

For instance, the TotalEnergies Antwerp refining facility in Belgium can refine 338,000 barrels per day, while the GOI Energy ISAB refinery in Italy was built with a refining capacity of 360,000 barrels per day.

Describing the Dangote refinery as a ‘game changer,’ Bloomberg emphasized its strategic advantage of leveraging cheaper U.S. oil imports for a substantial portion of its feedstock.

Analysts anticipate that the refinery’s operations will have a transformative impact on Nigeria’s fuel market and the broader region.

The refinery has already commenced shipping products in recent weeks while preparing to ramp up petrol output.

Analysts predict that Dangote’s refinery will influence Atlantic Basin gasoline markets and significantly alter the dynamics of the petroleum trade in West Africa.

Reuters recently reported that the Dangote refinery has the potential to disrupt the decades-long petrol trade from Europe to Africa, worth an estimated $17 billion annually.

With a configured capacity to produce up to 53 million liters of petrol per day, the refinery is poised to meet a significant portion of Nigeria’s fuel demand and reduce the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and the visionary behind the refinery, has demonstrated his commitment to revolutionizing Nigeria’s energy landscape. As the Dangote refinery continues to scale up its operations, it is poised to not only bolster Nigeria’s energy security but also emerge as a key player in the global refining industry.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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