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UK Economy Brightens as Bank of England Nears Rate Decision

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U.K services
  • UK Economy Brightens as Bank of England Nears Rate Decision

Britain’s economy picked up a bit of speed in May after slowing in early 2018, according to official figures that will give the Bank of England more confidence about raising interest rates next month for only the second time in over a decade.

A new monthly reading of gross domestic product showed the world’s fifth-biggest economy grew by 0.3 percent in May from April, the strongest performance since November and up from growth of 0.2 percent a month earlier.

The figure was in line with the forecast in a Reuters poll of economists, but sterling fell. Growth came mostly from the dominant services sector while factory output disappointed, the Office for National Statistics said.

“There is good news and bad news in this release, but on balance the Bank of England will likely focus on the good,” HSBC economist Elizabeth Martins said.

The good weather that helped spending in May continued into June and July, promising a pickup in growth. A British Retail Consortium survey earlier on Tuesday also showed a boost to sales from the soccer World Cup.

“Whether this pace of growth is sustainable, once the good weather and World Cup end, is another question,” Martins said.

Governor Mark Carney and other BoE officials opted not to raise rates in May because of the winter slowdown and decided to wait to be sure cold weather was to blame, not broader problems ahead of Britain’s exit from the European Union next year.

However, Prime Minister Theresa May’s attempts to keep a grip on the ruling Conservative Party, which is deeply split over Brexit, could yet affect confidence among employers, a potential new hurdle for the BoE.

In the three months to May, Britain’s economy grew by 0.2 percent after stagnating in the three months to April and was 1.5 percent bigger than in May last year, the ONS said.

Bolstering hopes of momentum returning to the economy, GDP looks set to grow by 0.4 percent and 0.5 percent in the second and third quarters, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a think tank, said.

The BoE is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent on Aug. 2, according to a Reuters poll of economists. It raised rates in November for the first time since before the financial crisis and has signaled it will raise them gradually over the next three years.

SERVICES-LED GROWTH

The ONS said the warm weather and spending around the royal wedding of Prince Harry and Meghan Markle helped the economy.

Britain’s services industry grew 0.3 percent month-on-month in May, slowing from an upwardly revised 0.4 percent in April.

Over the three months to May, growth in services — which makes up 80 percent of economic output — picked up speed to 0.4 percent from 0.2 percent.

But industrial output fell unexpectedly in May by 0.4 percent on the month, hit by the shutdown of the Sullom Voe oil and gas terminal.

Manufacturing growth also disappointed, rising only 0.4 percent on the month — less than half the growth rate expected in the Reuters poll.

May capped the weakest three months for British factories since December 2012.

There was better news from construction, which had struggled in the bad weather of early 2018. Output jumped 2.9 percent in May, far exceeding expectations and marking the first growth in the sector since December.

Separate data showed Britain’s deficit in goods trade during May was broadly unchanged from April at 12.362 billion pounds ($16.37 billion).

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

Energy

NLC Describes President Tinubu’s Involvement In Dangote Refinery Petrol Pricing As ‘Fraud’

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Joe Ajaero

The President of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), Joe Ajaero, has described the involvement of the President Bola Tinubu-led government in deciding the price of petrol produced by Dangote Refinery as fraud.

Ajaero spoke during a media briefing at the Murtala Muhammed Airport in Lagos on Wednesday.

According to him, the inconsistencies in policies and fraudulent actions of the Tinubu-led administration are the cause of the ongoing conflict between the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) and Dangote Refinery.

The NLC President criticised the current administration for attempting to interfere with the operations of private entities like Dangote.

He countered the government’s attempt to dictate the price of petrol produced by Dangote, describing it as fraudulent.

Ajaero said: “In a truly deregulated market, there should be no interference in how private sector entities like Dangote operate. Imposing restrictions or dictating prices goes against the principles of a free market.

“For a locally produced product, with no reliance on imported dollars or landing costs, they’re demanding he sells it at the same price as the imported ones. That’s both fraudulent and unacceptable.

“What you’re witnessing is a mix of fraud and policy inconsistency. Nigerians were led to believe that the sector had been deregulated, and in a deregulated market, competition and choice should prevail. So why is there now an attempt to control how much Dangote should sell his product for?

“When the Port Harcourt refinery becomes operational, both NNPC and Dangote should be able to sell freely. But trying to dictate Dangote’s pricing is dishonest.

“This is the time for Nigerians to speak out. We were told that deregulation would put the private sector in charge and limit government interference in business. Now, the government is trying to regulate how private businesses should price their products.

“They expect him to sell at the same price as the imported product, even though it was produced locally without the additional landing costs. That’s outright fraud.”

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Gain Amid U.S. Production Woes and Rate Cut Expectations

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Crude gained on Tuesday following Hurricane Francine disruption in the U.S. and the possibility of an interest rate cut in the U.S.

These two factors have boosted traders’ sentiment in the oil market despite concerns about global demand and slowing growth in China.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, rose by 36 cents, or 0.5% to $73.11 per barrel while the U.S. crude oil gained 53 cents, or 0.8% to settle $70.62 per barrel.

Both closed higher in the previous trading session as the market reacted to the impact of Hurricane Francine on U.S. Gulf Coast production.

More than 12% of crude oil production and 16% of natural gas output in the Gulf of Mexico remained offline as of Monday, according to the U.S.

According to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), the disruption has raised concerns over short-term supply shortages and contribution to the upward momentum in prices.

Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG said “while the market is seeing near-term stabilization, the fragile state of China’s economy and anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision could limit further gains.”

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to announce a rate cut later this week, with futures markets pricing in a 69% chance of a 50-basis-point reduction.

Lower interest rates are favourable for oil prices as they reduce borrowing costs and encourage economic growth.

“Growing expectations of an aggressive rate cut are lifting sentiment across the commodities sector”, stated ANZ analysts.

The market, however, remains cautious due to lower-than-expected demand from China, the world’s largest importer of the commodity.

Chinese data released over the weekend showed that China’s oil refinery output dropped for the fifth consecutive month in August. This signals weaker domestic demand and declining export margins.

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Crude Oil

New Petrol Prices to Range Between N857 and N865 Following NNPC-Dangote Deal

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Petrol

Hopes for cheaper Premium Motor Spirit (PM), otherwise known as petrol, rose, last night, as indications emerged that the product may sell for between N857 and N865 per litre after the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL) starts lifting the product from Dangote Refinery today.

It was learnt that the NNPCL, as the sole off-taker of petrol from the refinery, is projected to lift the product at N960/N980 per litre and sell to marketers at N840/N850 to enable Nigerians to get it at between N857 and N865 at the pump at filling stations.

However, whether uniform product prices would apply at filling stations nationwide was unclear.

As of yesterday, petrol sold at N855 per litre at NNPCL retail stations in Lagos and it was the cheapest anyone could buy the product while major marketers sold around N920.

At independent marketers’ outlets, the price was over N1,000. Elsewhere across the country, PMS sold for more than N1,200 per litre.

Sources said the new arrangement from the NNPCL and Dangote Refinery negotiations, spanning more than one week, would allow Nigerians to get petrol at between N857 and N865 per litre and represents an average under-recovery of about N130 to NNPCL.

President Bola Tinubu, Sunday Vanguard was made to understand by a Presidency source, made it clear to the negotiating parties that “the price at which petrol would be sold to Nigerians should not be such that would place heavy financial burden on them while dealing with the new reality of the prevailing price”.

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, has, meanwhile, expressed optimism that the deal would reduce the pressure on foreign exchange (FX) demands and shore up the value of the Naira – presently, between 30% and 40% of FX demands go into the importation of PMS.

Chief Corporate Communications Officer, NNPC Ltd., Olufemi Soneye, who confirmed the readiness of the company to start lifting petrol today, told Sunday Vanguard, yesterday: “NNPC Ltd has started deploying our trucks and vessels to the Dangote Refinery to lift PMS in preparation for the scheduled lifting date of September 15th, as set by the refinery.

“Our trucks and personnel are already on-site, ready to begin lifting. We expect more trucks, and the deployment will continue throughout the weekend so we can start loading as soon as the refinery begins operations on September 15, 2024.”

Soneye hinted that at least 100 trucks had already arrived at the refinery for the petrol lifting, adding that the number of trucks could increase to 300 by Saturday evening.

On his part, Executive Secretary, of Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria (DAPPMAN), Olufemi Adewole, said: “We have been lifting diesel (AGO) and aviation fuel (jet fuel) and we look forward to lifting petrol (PMS).”

On pricing, he said: “We await clarity in respect of the pricing mode, and once that is clarified, we’ll do the needful towards meeting the energy needs of Nigerians.”

Yesterday, Edun, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy said the structuring of the NNPCL, Dangote Refinery deal in Naira would assist in reducing pressure on the local currency.

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