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Investors Face Downtime in Second Half as Uncertainties Stoke Fears

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Nigerian stock market - Investors King
  • Investors Face Downtime in Second Half as Uncertainties Stoke Fears

Investors in the capital market will struggle with low returns in the second half of this year and may end the year with less-than-previously projected returns as macro-economic risks combine with political risks to weaken the immediate return horizon for Nigerian assets.

Major investment firms at the weekend were unanimous on the precarious outlook for the second half, with most analysts reviewing downward earlier return projections made for the year. Nigerian equities had closed first half almost flat with a marginal average gain of 0.09 per cent, after reaching as high average return of 17.9 per cent in January 2018.

Nigerian equities recorded net capital loss of N236 billion in the first week of the second half, pushing the average year-to-date return further negative at -1.61 per cent. The benchmark index for Nigerian equities had recorded average decline of 1.71 per cent for the five-day trading period.

Analysts at Cordros Capital, GTI Capital and Afrinvest Securities said while the Nigerian equities market still hold good prospects in the medium to long-term, the immediate outlook calls for caution and readjustments.

“While still optimistic about the macro-economic climate over the second half of the year – highlighted by stable macros – the combination of heightened political concerns locally and continued external market risks necessitate a readjustment of our prior guidance to cater to a more cautious market outlook,” Cordros Capital stated in its mid-year report.

Afrinvest Securities said the determining factors for 2018 including earnings fundamentals of companies; stability in the foreign exchange market and fund flow dynamics to emerging and frontier markets had been “skewed towards negative than positive” and are expected to continue to be the major themes during the second half.

“Although we had forecast a 19.8 per cent return for the market (base case), emerging events in 2018, especially policy normalisation in global markets as well as risk factors around the 2019 general election present compelling reasons to revise our forecast,” Afrinvest stated.

With this consideration, Afrinvest halved its base case to 10.0 per cent with a bear case of 2.2 per cent and bullish case of 18.3 per cent. This implies that equities’ return might hover between 2.2 per cent and 18.3 per cent, according to the investment firm.

Afrinvest also placed a higher probability of 50.0 per cent on its 2.2 per cent bear case, noting that market performance will continue to be pressured by capital flow reversals ahead of the 2019 general election.

“Nevertheless, we do not rule out the possibility of positives that could boost sentiment; thus, we place a 30 per cent probability on our base case scenario with the most unlikely 20 per cent chance of occurrence on our bull case. Even though our revised market projection suggests reduced return for 2018, we still expect a positive performance for the year,” Afrinvest stated.

According to analysts at Cordros, in the short to medium term, sideways trading is likely to remain the theme in the absence of a near-term positive trigger. However, macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong and supportive of gains in the long term.

Analysts at GTI Capital noted that the slowdown witnessed in the stock market was due to both domestic and external factors, with the main domestic factor being the political climate.

“In the light of all these issues, our outlook for the Nigerian Equities in second half 2018 is moderately negative. From late August when the election season begins with the primaries, we expect the air of uncertainty, which the election brings to weigh on the stock market, causing increased selloffs by foreign portfolio investors, also influencing domestic investors to do the same,” GTI Capital stated.

Analysts said the stock market will witness increased volatility as bargain-hunters step up speculative trading on undervalued stocks.

Turnover at the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) declined to 1.84 billion shares worth N16.59 billion in 18,941 deals last week as against a total of 2.0 billion shares valued at N21.58 billion traded in 18,534 deals two weeks ago.

Aggregate market value of all quoted equities at the NSE dropped from its opening value of N13.866 trillion to close at the weekend at N13.630 trillion. The All Share Index (ASI)-the main index for the Exchange declined from opening index of 38,278.55 points to close weekend at 37,625.59 points.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Banking Sector

Wema Bank Celebrates 79th Anniversary with Launch of CoopHub for Cooperative Societies

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Wema Bank, one of Nigeria’s leading financial institutions, has introduced a digital solution tailored for cooperative societies.

The innovative platform, named CoopHub, was developed to drive digital transformation and empower communities across Nigeria.

The unveiling of CoopHub took center stage at the bank’s anniversary celebration, held on Friday amidst much anticipation and excitement.

The launch of this pioneering platform underscores Wema Bank’s dedication to innovation and customer-centricity, aiming to revolutionize the operations of cooperative societies and address longstanding challenges within the sector.

At the heart of CoopHub lies a strategic vision to redefine the way cooperative societies function by providing tailored solutions that bridge the gaps inherent in traditional cooperative frameworks.

Designed to streamline operations, enhance communication, and promote financial inclusivity, CoopHub aims to empower cooperative societies and their members for optimal productivity and growth.

Moruf Oseni, the Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of Wema Bank, emphasized the strategic importance of CoopHub in addressing the pain points faced by cooperative societies.

He highlighted challenges such as manual recordkeeping, limited access to loans, poor communication, insecurity, and other restrictions that CoopHub seeks to overcome. Oseni reaffirmed Wema Bank’s commitment to innovation and customer-centricity, stating that CoopHub represents a significant step forward in empowering communities across Nigeria.

Solomon Ayodele, Wema Bank’s Head of Innovation, elaborated on the transformative features of CoopHub, emphasizing its role in ushering cooperative societies into a new era of efficiency and transparency.

Ayodele highlighted features such as a digitized database for recordkeeping, user management capabilities for leaders, transparent overviews of contributions, seamless communication frameworks, and robust security measures, including a three-factor authentication system for withdrawals.

Ayodele urged cooperative societies to embrace CoopHub and experience the future of cooperative operations firsthand.

He emphasized the platform’s potential to eliminate conflicts, mistrust, and inefficiencies, offering a seamless and secure ecosystem for cooperative members to thrive.

The launch of CoopHub comes at a time when cooperative societies play a vital role in Nigeria’s socio-economic landscape.

According to the National Cooperative Financing Agency of Nigeria, over 30 million Nigerians belong to cooperative societies, highlighting the significant impact of these entities on community development and financial inclusion.

As Wema Bank embarks on its 79th year of operation, the introduction of CoopHub underscores the institution’s commitment to driving positive change and fostering sustainable growth within Nigeria’s cooperative sector.

With its innovative features and transformative capabilities, CoopHub promises to empower cooperative societies, enhance financial inclusivity, and catalyze socio-economic development across Nigeria.

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Banking Sector

Analysts Place “Buy” on Fidelity Bank

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Highly-rated, independent investment advisory firms have picked Fidelity Bank as a very attractive stock with potential to generate high returns for investors.

Independent investment research reports by many market pundits reviewed at the weekend showed that Fidelity Bank was assigned “buy” ticker, a recommendation to investors to consider the potential attractive returns of the bank.

The research reports were based on the historical and current operational performances of the bank as well as the clear-sighted implementation of the bank’s growth plan. The reports also considered the quality of board and management and the general human capital and resources of the bank.

The investment advisory reports included those of Afrinvest Group, FSDH Capital and CardinalStone among others.

Analysts were unanimous that Fidelity Bank’s share price could double in the period ahead given professional assessment of top traditional performance parameters including the company’s operational reports, investors’ preference and projections.

CardinalStone stated that Fidelity Bank’s share price could double citing the bank’s “robust earnings growth” and the increasing profitability of its core banking operations.

After an extensive review of the global and domestic stock markets, FSDH Capital selected Fidelity Bank as one of the “FSDH Top Picks”, a group of stocks that the investment advisory firm considered to be most attractive for discerning investors. FSDH Capital’s stock selection considered a stock’s pricing history, dividend history, fundamental values and peer ratios among others.

Providing background on analysts’ exhaustive research for stock selection, Afrinvest explained that the company’s fair value estimate “takes into account a weighted average of price estimates derived from a blend of valuation methodologies including the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and its variants as well as other relative and comparable trading multiples valuation models”.

“However, we attach the most weight to DCF valuation methodology, particularly the Dividend Discount Model (DDM), Free Cash Flow (FCF) model and Residual Income Valuation/Model (RIV/RIM). The utilization of comparable trading multiples is guided by the analysts’ understanding of the banks’ fundamentals, as well as key price drivers from the firm, industry and macroeconomic perspectives,” Afrinvest stated.

The “buy” rating, according to analysts, implies that “the expected total return over the next 12 months is 25 per cent or more. Investors are advised to take positions at the prevailing market price as at the report date”.

Afrinvest projected that Fidelity Bank, with a dividend yield of 9.3 per cent, has price upside potential of more than 35 per cent. This effectively makes the stock an inflation-hedging stock, implying that investors in the bank’s shares can retain money value despite the current inflationary environment.

Futureview Group said Fidelity Bank’s recent operational reports highlighted the bank’s “excellent operational performance and the breadth of its income sources”.

The audited report and accounts of Fidelity Bank for the year ended December 31, 2023 had shown that gross earnings rose by 65 per cent to N555.83 billion. The top-line performance was driven by significant growths across income lines including 55 per cent growth in interest income, 562 per cent increase in other operating income and 44 per cent growth in fee and commission income.

The bottom-line fared better with net profit after tax rising by 99 per cent to N99.46 billion in 2023.  Earnings per share (EPS) thus jumped by 93 per cent to N3.11, providing a strong buffer for the bank to increase dividend payout without undermining its sustainability.

Interim report and account of the bank for the first quarter ended March 31, 2024 also showed that the bank started the current business year on stronger footing with three-digit growths across key performance indicators.

The three-month report, released at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), showed that gross earnings increased by 89.9 per cent to N192.1 billion in first quarter 2024. The bank’s top-line performance continued to be driven by broad-based growths across income lines with interest income rising by 90.7 per cent and non-interest income growing by 84 per cent in first quarter 2024.

Growth in interest income was primarily spurred by a higher yield environment and strong earning assets base, while the increase in non-interest income was led by double-digit growth in account maintenance charges, foreign exchange (forex)-related income, trade, banking services, and remittances, supported by increased customer transactions.

Profit before tax doubled by 120 per cent to N39.5 billion in first quarter 2024 as against N17.9 billion in first quarter 2023. The bank’s performance was driven by expanding market share with total deposit rising by 17 per cent within the three months to N4.7 trillion, compared with N4 trillion recorded at the end of 2023. The bank also increased its supports for national economic growth with net loans and advances rising by 21 per cent from N3.1 trillion at the end of 2023 to N3.7 trillion by March 2024.

Managing Director, Fidelity Bank Plc, Nneka Onyeali-Ikpe said the bank’s performance was due to its strategic focus on customer-centricity, digital innovation and operational excellence.

“Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, we remained resilient and agile, delivering double-digit growth on key income lines while advancing our business sustainability agenda.

“Beginning the year on this inspiring note reaffirms our strategy of helping individuals to grow, inspiring businesses to thrive and empowering economies to prosper. We are committed to our guidance as we build a more resilient business franchise with a well-diversified earnings base in 2024,” Onyeali-Ikpe said.

Ranked as one of the best banks in Nigeria, Fidelity Bank is a full-fledged customer commercial bank with over 8.5 million customers serviced across its 251 business offices in Nigeria and the United Kingdom as well as on digital banking channels.

The bank has won multiple local and international awards including the Export Finance Bank of the Year at the 2023 BusinessDay Banks and Other Financial Institutions (BAFI) Awards, the Best Payment Solution Provider Nigeria 2023 and Best SME Bank Nigeria 2022 by the Global Banking and Finance Awards; Best Bank for SMEs in Nigeria by the Euromoney Awards for Excellence 2023; and Best Domestic Private Bank in Nigeria by the Euromoney Global Private Banking Awards 2023.

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Loans

Federal Government Spends $1.12 Billion on Foreign Debt Servicing in Q1 2024

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The Federal Government has disclosed that it pays $1.12 billion to service foreign debts in the first quarter of 2024 alone.

This amount shows the escalating burden of external debt on the nation’s fiscal health.

Data gleaned from the international payment segment of the Central Bank of Nigeria website reveals a steady upward trajectory in debt service payments, both over the past few years and within the first quarter of 2024.

When this is compared to the same period in 2023, debt servicing rose by 39.7 percent in Q1, 2024.

The breakdown of the debt service payments paints a picture of fluctuating yet consistently high expenditure.

January 2024 commenced with an imposing debt servicing obligation of $560.52 million, a stark contrast to the $112.35 million recorded in January 2023.

While February 2024 witnessed a moderation in debt servicing payments to $283.22 million and March 2024 saw a further decrease to $276.17 million.

Alarmingly, approximately 70 percent of Nigeria’s dollar payments were allocated to service external debts during the first quarter of 2024.

Out of the total outflows amounting to $1.61 billion, a substantial $1.12 billion was directed towards debt servicing, significantly surpassing the corresponding figure of 49 percent in Q1 2023.

The depletion of foreign exchange reserves, which experienced a recent one-month dip streak has been attributed primarily to debt repayments and other financial obligations rather than efforts to defend the naira, according to CBN Governor Yemi Cardoso.

The World Bank has expressed profound concern over the escalating debt service burdens facing developing countries globally, emphasizing the urgent need for coordinated action to avert a widespread financial crisis.

With record-level debt and soaring interest rates, many developing nations, including Nigeria, face an increasingly precarious economic path, fraught with challenges regarding resource allocation and financial stability.

The Debt Management Office (DMO) has previously disclosed that Nigeria incurred a debt service of $3.5 billion for its external loans in 2023, marking a 55 percent increase from the previous year.

This worrisome trend underscores the pressing need for robust fiscal management and prudent debt repayment strategies to safeguard Nigeria’s financial stability and foster sustainable economic growth.

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