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Italian Bonds Suffer Worst Day in More Than 25 Years

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  • Italian Bonds Suffer Worst Day in More Than 25 Years

A deepening political crisis in Italy, the euro zone’s third biggest economy, fuelled a selloff in Italian assets and the euro on Tuesday that was reminiscent of the euro zone debt crisis of 2010-2012.

Short-term Italian bond yields were set for their biggest one-day jump since 1992 IT2YT=RR, while Italian and wider euro zone banking stocks headed for their worst day since August 2016 .FTIT8300. At an auction of six-month debt, the government had to pay investors the highest yield in more than five years.

The moves come after Italy’s president appointed a former International Monetary Fund official as interim prime minister, with the task of planning for snap polls and passing a budget.

Investors believe the election will deliver an even stronger mandate for anti-establishment, eurosceptic politicians, casting doubt on the Italy’s future in the euro zone.

“The spectacular rise of 2-year yields in Italy this morning reflects break-up or redenomination fears,” Martin van Vliet, ING Bank’s senior fixed income strategist, said.

Italy’s central bank chief warned on Tuesday that the state was only “a few short steps” from losing investors’ trust.

Ratings agency Moody’s warned that Italy was likely to face a downgrade if a new government pursues fiscal policies that do not put debt levels on a sustainable downward path.

While the 5-Star Movement and far-right League have dropped plans to take power, they have now switched to campaign mode. 5-Star has called for protests against President Sergio Mattarella’s rejection of the parties’ nominee for economy minister, Paolo Savona, who has argued for Italy to quit the euro.

So far, the European Central Bank’s bond buying programme has provided a powerful backstop to euro zone government debt, but latest market moves suggest this buffer may have lost its punch.

The closely-watched Italian-German 10-year bond yield spread, seen by many investors as an indicator of sentiment towards the euro zone, was at its widest since June 2013. IT10YT=RR DE10YT=RR.

The spread rose above 300 basis points, having almost tripled from end-April levels around 115 bps. In 2011, at the height of the euro debt crisis, that gap was at 560 bps.

“With such an unclear Italian political situation, investors will continue to demand a significant uncertainty premium,” said Isabelle Vic-Philippe, head of euro government bonds at Amundi, one of Europe’s largest investors.

Italy’s 2-year yield spiked more than 150 bps to 2.73 percent, while 10-year bond yields jumped 50 bps to their highest level in over four years at 3.38 percent IT10YT=RR. Italian bond yields traded above U.S. Treasury yields US10YT=RR for the first time in almost a year.

The Italian 2-10 year bond yield spread was at 42 bps — its tightest since 2011 — having been at 220 bps a week ago.

The cost of insuring exposure to Italian risk in the five-year credit default swaps market rose to a 4-1/2 year high of 225 basis points, a jump of 49 basis points on the day, data from IHS Markit showed.

“Taking any position in Italian debt, long or short is dangerous right now,” said David Roberts, head of global fixed income, Liontrust Asset Management.

A rush to safe havens briefly pushed Germany’s 10-year bond yield to 0.19 percent DE10YT=RR, its lowest in more than a year.

The rise in borrowing costs and potential knock-on effects on the euro bloc saw money markets further trim bets that the ECB will raise interest rates in June 2019. They now bet on a 30 percent chance of a 10 bps rate rise that month, half of what was priced last week.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

IOCs Stick to Dollar Dominance in Crude Oil Transactions with Modular Refineries

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Crude Oil - Investors King

International Oil Companies (IOCs) are standing firm on their stance regarding the currency denomination for crude oil transactions with modular refineries.

Despite earlier indications suggesting a potential shift towards naira payments, IOCs have asserted their preference for dollar dominance in these transactions.

The decision, communicated during a meeting involving indigenous modular refineries and crude oil producers, shows the complex dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy landscape.

While the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had previously hinted at the possibility of allowing indigenous refineries to purchase crude oil in either naira or dollars, IOCs have maintained a firm stance favoring the latter.

Under this framework, modular refineries would be required to pay 80% of the crude oil purchase amount in US dollars, with the remaining 20% to be settled in naira.

This arrangement, although subject to ongoing discussions, signals a significant departure from initial expectations of a more balanced currency allocation.

Representatives from the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said the decision was not unilaterally imposed but rather reached through deliberations with relevant stakeholders, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While there were initial hopes of broader flexibility in currency options, the dominant position of IOCs has steered discussions towards a more dollar-centric model.

Despite reservations expressed by some participants, including modular refinery operators, the consensus appears to lean towards accommodating the preferences of major crude oil suppliers.

The development underscores the intricate negotiations and power dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy sector, with implications for both domestic and international stakeholders.

As discussions continue, attention remains focused on how this decision will impact the operations and financial viability of modular refineries in Nigeria’s evolving oil landscape.

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Energy

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery Overtakes European Giants in Capacity, Bloomberg Reports

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Aliko Dangote - Investors King

The Dangote Refinery has surpassed some of Europe’s largest refineries in terms of capacity, according to a recent report by Bloomberg.

The $20 billion Dangote refinery, located in Lagos, boasts a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels of petroleum products per day, positioning it as a formidable player in the global refining industry.

Bloomberg’s data highlighted that the Dangote refinery’s capacity exceeds that of Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands by over 246,000 barrels per day. Making Dangote’s facility a significant contender in the refining industry.

The report also underscored the scale of Dangote’s refinery compared to other prominent European refineries.

For instance, the TotalEnergies Antwerp refining facility in Belgium can refine 338,000 barrels per day, while the GOI Energy ISAB refinery in Italy was built with a refining capacity of 360,000 barrels per day.

Describing the Dangote refinery as a ‘game changer,’ Bloomberg emphasized its strategic advantage of leveraging cheaper U.S. oil imports for a substantial portion of its feedstock.

Analysts anticipate that the refinery’s operations will have a transformative impact on Nigeria’s fuel market and the broader region.

The refinery has already commenced shipping products in recent weeks while preparing to ramp up petrol output.

Analysts predict that Dangote’s refinery will influence Atlantic Basin gasoline markets and significantly alter the dynamics of the petroleum trade in West Africa.

Reuters recently reported that the Dangote refinery has the potential to disrupt the decades-long petrol trade from Europe to Africa, worth an estimated $17 billion annually.

With a configured capacity to produce up to 53 million liters of petrol per day, the refinery is poised to meet a significant portion of Nigeria’s fuel demand and reduce the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and the visionary behind the refinery, has demonstrated his commitment to revolutionizing Nigeria’s energy landscape. As the Dangote refinery continues to scale up its operations, it is poised to not only bolster Nigeria’s energy security but also emerge as a key player in the global refining industry.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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