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How High Oil Production Cost Impacts Producers, Firms

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  • How High Oil Production Cost Impacts Producers, Firms

The dynamics of the global oil and gas industry are changing. Oil-producing countries and oil companies are seeking production cost-reduction by all means possible. This became necessary for companies to remain afloat and make profit while producer-countries make huge earnings from their hydrocarbon resources.

The drive for lower production cost is further heightened by the belief that the era of oil price at $100 per barrel is gone. Therefore, to remain competitive, the cost per barrel of crude has to be cheap or attract the required investment in the case of an oil-producing country.

However, Nigeria is still ranked among countries with one of the highest cost per barrel production. Available data on 13 oil producing nations, including United Kingdom (UK), Brazil, Nigeria, Venezuela, Canada, United States (US) shale, Norway, US non-shale, Indonesia, Russai, Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia, showed that in 2016, Nigeria was among the first on the list of countries with the highest production cost per barrel. She came after UK with $44.33 per barrel (bbl), Brazil -$34.99/bbl and Nigeria, $28.99/bbl. The last three countries on the list, Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia had the lowest production cost per barrel of $10.57, $9.08 and $8.98 respectively.

From the data, Gulf countries have the cheapest barrel of oil and are among the countries with highest output. For instance, Saudi Arabia’s daily oil production is about 12.3 million barrels; Iraq–4.8 million barrels daily and Iran, 3.8 million barrels daily, while Russia has about 11.4 million barrels production daily. This development has put countries with high production cost at very difficult situation, especially Nigeria that does not only depend on oil proceeds for the sustenance of her economy, but on imported refined petroleum products to power her commercial and industrial activities.

Challenging situation

Since the swing in oil price from end of 2014, the Federal Government has been emphasising the need for oil firms to consistently strive to drastically bring down their cost of production per barrel. The emphasis and anticipated action have become inevitable. Revenue due to the government from oil exports had significantly dropped due to low oil prices in the international market.

Besides, the volume of oil in the market is more than demand, leading to significant number of unsold cargoes of different oil grades in the market. Oil traders’ reports often show different grades of Nigerian oil begging for buyers, a situation that signals an urgent need to think outside the box on how to steer away from undue dependence on oil revenues to drive the economy.

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr. Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu, aptly put the disadvantaged state in which Nigeria is in the league of oil producing countries when he spoke at the inaugural Nigeria International Petroleum Summit (NIPS) in Abuja. He said considering that Nigeria’s over 50 years in oil business, it should be a model to other emerging oil producing countries in Africa.

However, Africa’s biggest oil producer still battles with a couple of challenges, which has kept its oil production cost far higher than most of its contemporaries. He said: “We are the largest oil producing country in Africa and perhaps, the largest gas producing country in Africa and have been into oil and gas business for nearly 50 years. We have had our ups and downs and need to set good examples for other African countries looking up to us for leadership in this sector.

“There are snapshots of what we need to achieve as an oil producing country to make our oil production efficient and profitableas well as be outstanding as we ought to be. The reality is that today if you cannot produce cheap cost oil, diversify the processing of your oil, look frankly into internalising and externalising the investments to your people and your foreign investors in the sector, capture the requisite technology skills that will help you operate efficiently, you are lost before you start.”

The Minister noted that in another 15 years, export of crude oil will be a shameful habit for any country that is doing it. “If you look at the movement in the Gulf and United States that have exited, quite frankly, the high production cost of oil, the drive to cut your production cost becomes more glaring. Everybody is coming at it in a different angle, shale in the US and diversification in the Gulf,” he added.

The clean energy focus, according to him, is beginning to make almost irrelevant the vast crude oil reserves that Nigeria has in the ground unless she can turn them into things that are clean.

“So, the challenge for oil companies operating in the country and Nigerians, who are in this sector, has changed. Historically, our business was to find the oil, sell it to earn foreign exchange, but it has got to be better than that now. Oil has got to provide work for our people, the resource to power this country, provide the operational environment that is transparent enough for others to take Nigeria serious.

“Oil has got to provide the technical and human skills set that are essential for us to export people out into other African countries and become major investors in other African countries, something the banking sector has tried to do over the last six to seven years,” Kachikwu noted.

Degeconek Oil and Gas Limited Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer and the immediate past president of the Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE), Mr. Abiodun Adesanya, however, disagreed that Nigeria has one of the world’s highest production cost per barrel of oil. He said owing to the country’s matured basin, it should have one of the cheapest barrel production costs in the world.

According to him, corruption and security issues, militancy in the Niger Delta region, among others, largely contributed to inflation of cost of oil production in Nigeria, but in the real sense of it, cost of producing a barrel is cheap in the country. He said: “1 wouldn’t agree that Nigeria’s cost per barrel production is among the highest in the world. A couple of factors outside oil substantially contribute to this. To be honest with you, I will say that cost per barrel is a function of cost of services. It is a function of wastages in the system (corruption, among others). But there is the actual cost per barrel. We don’t have any business in having a high cost per barrel given the matured and long history of exploration and production that we have had in Nigeria.

“If we move to new areas and try to develop them that will be understandable, but, there is a lot of amortised infrastructure that have been built a long time ago and they have paid for themselves already and are just being utilised. But if you are going to a new area, for example, Aje field production, they need a lot of new infrastructure such as floating production, storage and offloading vessel (FPSO), among others. So, we have gone past that point. Our cost per barrel has no business being high.”

Adesanya said because Nigeria had been in recession and the industry had been challenged by oil price, service cost has also come down. He said there were elements that had nothing to do with oil and gas on the technical side that were also exacerbating the cost per barrel. These include the non-technical cost, cost of joint taskforce (JTF), navy patrol vessel, cost of providing security and community issues.

‘’There is also the cost of repairing in a cyclical way the damaged infrastructure because all those costs are eventually shared and passed on to the cost per barrel. So, there is a technical cost that we know – cost of drilling, logging a well and seismics. There is cost of naval patrol vessel, gun-boat rental, repairing Trans Forcados multiple times, which can easily be avoided. By the time you add these on to the technical cost, you have this bogus cost per barrel. So, if we can try and address those issues and bring them down, I think we will be alright,” Adesanya reasoned.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

IEA Cuts 2024 Oil Demand Growth Forecast by 100,000 Barrels per Day

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Crude Oil

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reduced its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd).

The agency cited a sluggish start to the year in developed economies as a key factor contributing to the downward revision.

According to the latest Oil Market Report released by the IEA, global oil consumption has continued to experience a slowdown in growth momentum with first-quarter growth estimated at 1.6 million bpd.

This figure falls short of the IEA’s previous forecast by 120,000 bpd, indicating a more sluggish demand recovery than anticipated.

With much of the post-Covid rebound already realized, the IEA now projects global oil demand to grow by 1.2 million bpd in 2024.

Furthermore, growth is expected to decelerate further to 1.1 million bpd in the following year, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market.

This revision comes just a month after the IEA had raised its outlook for 2024 oil demand growth by 110,000 bpd from its February report.

At that time, the agency had expected demand growth to reach 1.3 million bpd for 2024, indicating a more optimistic outlook compared to the current revision.

The IEA’s latest demand growth estimates diverge significantly from those of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). While the IEA projects modest growth, OPEC maintains its forecast of robust global oil demand growth of 2.2 million bpd for 2024, consistent with its previous assessment.

However, uncertainties loom over the global oil market, particularly due to geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions.

The IEA has highlighted the impact of drone attacks from Ukraine on Russian refineries, which could potentially disrupt fuel markets globally.

Up to 600,000 bpd of Russia’s refinery capacity could be offline in the second quarter due to these attacks, according to the IEA’s assessment.

Furthermore, unplanned outages in Europe and tepid Chinese activity have contributed to a lowered forecast of global refinery throughputs for 2024.

The IEA now anticipates refinery throughputs to rise by 1 million bpd to 83.3 million bpd, reflecting the challenges facing the refining sector.

The situation has raised concerns among policymakers, with the United States expressing worries over the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries.

There are fears that these attacks could lead to retaliatory measures from Russia and result in higher international oil prices.

As the global oil market navigates through these challenges, stakeholders will closely monitor developments and adjust their strategies accordingly to adapt to the evolving landscape.

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Crude Oil

Federal Government Allows Indigenous Refineries to Purchase Crude Oil in Naira or Dollars

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Dangote Refinery

The Federal Government of Nigeria has announced that domestic crude oil refiners and other operators in the sector are now permitted to buy crude oil in either naira or dollars.

This move comes as a response to longstanding demands from stakeholders in the industry and is poised to reshape the dynamics of the nation’s oil market.

The announcement was made on Monday through the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission during a briefing in Abuja.

According to the commission, the decision to allow the purchase of crude oil in naira or dollars aligns with the provisions of Section 109(2) of the Petroleum Industry Act 2021.

The development of the new template involved collaboration with key stakeholders, including representatives from NNPC Upstream Investment Management Services, Crude Oil/Condensate Producers, Crude Oil Refinery-Owners Association of Nigeria, and Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, Gbenga Komolafe, said the new template will ensure a seamless implementation of the Domestic Crude Oil Supply Obligation (DCSO) and maintain a consistent supply of crude oil to domestic refineries.

He highlighted that the flexibility to transact in either naira or dollars would alleviate pressure on the country’s foreign exchange rate, potentially benefiting the overall economy.

Responding to inquiries regarding the currency of transaction, Komolafe reiterated that payments could be made in either United States dollars or naira, or a combination of both, as agreed upon in the Sales and Purchase Agreement (SPA) between the producer and the refiner.

This flexibility is expected to ease the financial burden on indigenous refineries and support their sustainability in the face of economic challenges.

The decision comes after modular refineries in Nigeria faced threats of shutdown due to difficulties in accessing foreign exchange for crude oil purchases.

These refineries with a combined capacity of producing 200,000 barrels of crude oil daily, struggled to secure dollars for purchasing crude, which is priced in US dollars.

The Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria had previously expressed concerns over the impact of the foreign exchange crisis on their operations.

Furthermore, alongside the announcement regarding crude oil purchases, the government revealed an increase in the country’s crude oil and condensate reserves to 37.5 billion barrels as of January 1, 2024.

Gas reserves also saw an uptick, reaching 209.26 trillion cubic feet during the same period, signifying substantial potential for future exploration and production activities.

As Nigeria navigates its oil and gas landscape, the decision to allow indigenous refineries to purchase crude oil in naira or dollars marks a significant step towards supporting local industry players and promoting economic stability in the sector.

With the potential to enhance operational efficiency and mitigate financial challenges, this policy shift holds promise for the growth and sustainability of Nigeria’s oil refining sector.

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Commodities

Citigroup Predicts $3,000 Value Amidst Investor Surge

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gold bars - Investors King

Citigroup Inc. has predicted that the world’s leading safe haven asset, gold will reach $3,000 per ounce.

This announcement comes amidst a significant surge in investor interest in the precious metal, fueled by a myriad of factors ranging from geopolitical tensions to shifting monetary policies.

Analysts at Citigroup, led by Aakash Doshi, have upgraded their estimates for average gold prices in 2024 to $2,350, with a 40% upward revision in their 2025 prediction to $2,875.

They anticipate that trading will regularly test and surpass the $2,500 price level in the latter half of the year.

The rationale behind Citigroup’s optimistic outlook lies in several key factors. Firstly, the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has spurred increased investor inflows into gold as historically low interest rates tend to make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive.

Also, ongoing conflicts in regions such as the Middle East and Ukraine have heightened geopolitical uncertainty, further bolstering gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Furthermore, central banks, particularly those in emerging markets, have been actively accumulating gold reserves, adding to the overall demand for the precious metal.

China, in particular, has demonstrated robust consumer demand for gold, further underpinning Citigroup’s bullish stance.

According to Citigroup analysts, the resurgence of inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has played a significant role in supporting the climb towards the $3,000 mark.

This trend marks a departure from recent years, where such inflows were relatively subdued.

While Citigroup acknowledges the possibility of a pullback in prices around May or June, they anticipate strong buying support at the $2,200 per ounce threshold, suggesting that any dips in price may be short-lived.

The bank’s forecast aligns with sentiments expressed by other major financial institutions. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., for instance, has raised its year-end forecast for gold to $2,700, citing similar factors driving the commodity’s upward trajectory.

UBS Group AG also sees gold reaching $2,500 by the year’s end, further corroborating the bullish outlook shared by Citigroup.

As investors brace for what could be a historic rally in gold prices, Citigroup’s projection serves as a testament to the growing optimism surrounding the precious metal.

With geopolitical tensions simmering and central banks poised to enact accommodative monetary policies, gold appears poised to shine brightly in the months ahead, potentially realizing Citigroup’s ambitious target of $3,000 per ounce.

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