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Nigeria, Kenya Inching Closer to Interest Rate Cuts

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  • Nigeria, Kenya Inching Closer to Interest Rate Cuts

Nigeria and Kenya will follow Ghana’s lead and cut rates in the third quarter, a Reuters poll found, as long as there is a Monetary Policy Committee quorum in Abuja and an easier commercial lending policy in Nairobi.

A Reuters poll of 11 analysts for some of Africa’s major central banks, taken in the past four days, found the majority saying Nigeria and Kenya’s benchmark rates would remain at 14 and 10 percent respectively next week.

Eight of the 12 members still need to be appointed to Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee- so there is unlikely to be a meeting next week – while Kenya remains hamstrung by a bill limiting commercial lending rates to four percentage points above its official rate.

The Central Bank of Nigeria was forced to cancel its January meeting as it was unable to reach a quorum. But the Senate plans to start screening new members for the interest rate committee after it held up some of President Muhammadu Buhari’s nominees in a political spat.

Inflation in both Nigeria and Kenya slowed recently, making both ripe for easier policy, and according to the poll there will be 200 and 100 basis points worth of cuts coming this year, respectively.

“There is a case for policy loosening in Nigeria and Kenya, but inflation in Nigeria has been stickier at least until February and the delay in appointing new members of the MPC has also held up policymaking,” said John Ashbourne, an Africa economist at Capital Economics.

Nigeria has navigated several challenges in the past three years, dealing with dollar shortages and an economy that came out of its first recession in a generation in 2017.

But growth in the last quarter of 2017 rose to 1.92 per cent compared to a 1.73 per cent contraction in the same period of the previous year.

On Wednesday the International Monetary Fund approved a request by Kenya to extend by six months a stand-by loan that was due to expire at the end of March, giving it time to finish mandatory reviews.

Amending a bill on interest limits for commercial bank loans is one of the conditions the IMF needed to approve the “rainy day” loan facility and so an amendment could happen soon, Aly-Khan Satchu, the CEO of Rich Management in Nairobi, said.

The bill meant banks decided a large number of borrowers – mainly small traders and informal sector workers – were too risky to receive loans.

Unless the bill is scrapped or modified to take advantage of slower inflation and rates fall further, banks are likely to exclude yet more would-be borrowers from credit – effectively tightening rather than easing monetary conditions.

After 600 basis points worth of cuts in the past two years, Ghana is expected to press on and cut 100 basis points to 19.0 percent later this month and then continue chopping until it reaches 17.0 percent by end-year.

South Africa, Africa’s most industrialised economy, is also closer to cutting rates this year but it depends heavily on a decision by Moody’s ratings agency later this month.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Plan to Review Oil Companies’ Gas Flaring Strategies

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Oil

Nigeria is ramping up its efforts to address environmental concerns in the oil and gas sector with a comprehensive plan to review gas flaring strategies of international and indigenous oil companies.

The Minister of State for Environment, Dr. Iziaq Salako, announced this initiative during a national stakeholders engagement meeting on methane mitigation and reduction held in Abuja, Investors King reports.

Gas flaring, a common practice in the oil industry, releases methane—a potent greenhouse gas—into the atmosphere, contributing to climate change and posing health risks to communities near oil facilities.

Nigeria aims to end routine gas flaring by 2030, aligning with global climate goals and commitments.

Dr. Salako explained the importance of reducing methane emissions and highlighted the detrimental effects on public health, food security, and economic development.

He outlined practical steps being taken to tackle methane emissions, including the development of methane guidelines and the engagement of government institutions.

The ministry, through the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency, will conduct periodic reviews of oil companies’ plans to ensure compliance with the gas flaring deadline.

Deloitte management consultants will assist in conducting comprehensive forensic audits to scrutinize the legitimacy of forward-contracted transactions.

President Bola Tinubu’s commitment to environmental sustainability underscores the government’s dedication to addressing climate change and fulfilling its multilateral environmental agreements.

The engagement event served as a platform for stakeholders to discuss methane mitigation strategies, existing policies, and implementation challenges.

Collaboration and dialogue among diverse sectors are crucial in charting a unified course towards sustainable methane reduction in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry.

As the country navigates its environmental agenda, ensuring accountability and transparency in gas flaring practices remains paramount for achieving a greener and healthier future.

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Economy

Interest Rate Jumps to 24.75% as CBN Takes Aggressive Stance Against Inflation

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Dr. Olayemi Michael Cardoso

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has announced a significant increase in the monetary policy rate, known as the interest rate, to 24.75%.

This move disclosed by CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso during the 294th Meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee press briefing in Abuja, represents a bold step by the apex bank to address the mounting inflationary pressures faced by the country.

With inflation soaring to 31.70% in February, the CBN aims to moderate this upward trend by tightening its monetary policy stance.

This decision follows the previous hike in the interest rate to 22.75% in February, showcasing the CBN’s commitment to combatting inflationary forces.

While the bank opted to maintain the Cash Reserve Ratio at 45%, the significant increase in the interest rate underscores the urgency of the situation and the need for decisive action.

Governor Cardoso emphasized that these measures are essential to stabilize the economy and safeguard the purchasing power of the Nigerian currency.

The 294th MPC marks the second meeting under Governor Cardoso’s leadership, indicating a proactive approach to addressing economic challenges.

The next MPC meeting is scheduled for May 20th and 21st, 2024, highlighting the ongoing commitment of the CBN to navigate Nigeria’s economic landscape amidst inflationary pressures.

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Economy

Nigeria Braces for 10th Consecutive Interest Rate Hike by Central Bank

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)

As Nigeria grapples with persistently high inflation, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is gearing up to implement its tenth consecutive interest rate hike in a bid to curb the soaring prices and attract investment.

Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are anticipating a substantial 125 basis-point increase in the key rate to 24%, marking one of the most significant adjustments in the current tightening cycle.

The decision, expected to be announced by Governor Olayemi Cardoso on Tuesday at 2 p.m. in Abuja, comes on the heels of inflation accelerating to 31.7% in February, far surpassing the central bank’s target range of 9%.

This surge has been primarily attributed to the sharp depreciation of the naira, prompting authorities to devalue the currency twice since June to narrow the gap with the unofficial market rate and encourage investor confidence.

While these measures have seen the naira strengthen in recent days and bolstered investment inflows, including a fourfold increase in overseas remittances and significant foreign investor portfolio asset purchases, there remains a palpable need for more decisive action.

Giulia Pellegrini, a senior portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors, emphasized the necessity for the CBN to intensify its tightening efforts to regain foreign investors’ confidence in the local bond market.

While acknowledging the positive strides made by the central bank, Pellegrini stressed the importance of a more assertive approach to prevent the diversion of investor attention to other frontier markets.

As the Nigerian economy navigates through these challenging times, the impending interest rate hike signals the CBN’s determination to address inflation head-on and foster a more stable economic environment.

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