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OPEC Assures US Shale Won’t Distort Oil Market

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  • OPEC Assures US Shale Won’t Distort Oil Market

The President of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and United Arab Emirates (UAE)’s Energy Minister, Suhail Al Mazrouei, has stated that the increased production of shale oil by the United States will not hamper the efforts of OPEC and non-OPEC countries to clear the glut in the oil market.

This is coming as the Managing Director of Nigeria LNG Limited (NLNG), Mr. Tony Attah, has said Nigeria must unleash its gas potential and support NLNG’s expansion programme, Train 7 project, in preparation for a world that is fast making efforts to reduce its fossil fuel consumption and minimise carbon footprint.

In its monthly Oil Market Report (OMR) released Monday OPEC attributed the increase in US shale oil production to steady gains in the price of crude oil since the middle of last year.

According to the cartel, the oil price gains triggered more work in exploration and production, not only in the US shale oil sector, but also in the deep US waters in the Gulf of Mexico.

By the second half of the year, OPEC said it expected total US oil production to slow down or even stall.

At more than 10 million barrels per day, the United States is now rivalling Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, in terms of production.

Speaking Monday in an interview in Dubai, AI Mazrouei disclosed that the oil market should re-balance this year, given robust demand and producers’ compliance with their pledges to curtail supply.

He stressed that the US shale oil won’t be a “huge distorter” for the oil market as stronger demand and compliance with oil cuts have buoyed prices.

There are concerns that the surging US shale oil production would complicate efforts by OPEC, Russia and other producers to prop up crude prices by curtailing supply.

Crude oil is rebounding from its biggest weekly decline in two years, though gains are limited due to concerns over resurgence in US shale oil production.

The US oil rig count rose last week by 26, the most in a year, to 791, Baker Hughes data showed at the weekend.

American weekly crude output topped 10 million barrels a day for the first time on record, and the US government forecasts it will balloon to 11 million later this year.

Oil producers had agreed in November 2017 to extend the self-imposed limits on production output until the end of this year, seeking to counter a glut fed partly by US shale oil drillers.

“Shale oil is coming and the expectation is that it will come stronger than in 2017, and this is something that we have to watch. But considering all factors, I don’t think it will be a huge distorter of the market,” Al Mazrouei said.

He added: “What concerns us today is the level of inventories that we need to achieve the five-year average, and I see the market going in that direction and achieving balance.

“How long it will take depends on how long the increase in shale production will take. Demand for this year is expected to be good, if not better than 2017.”

This, together with “good” economic indicators and compliance with output cuts, indicate that the crude market will balance within the year, he added.

Also speaking Monday to reporters at a conference in Cairo, Egypt, the Secretary General of OPEC, Mr. Mohammad Barkindo, noted that the oil market was “on course to restoring balance” for the first time since 2014.

According to Barkindo, oil demand is set to grow by 1.6 million barrels a day in 2018, the same level as last year, with crude inventories continuing to dwindle as OPEC and other producers pursue their output cuts until the end of the year.

Barkindo added that Venezuela is proposing that OPEC seeks a five-year deal for cooperation on output with allied producers beyond 2018.

“Venezuelans see that the cooperation with non-OPEC producers shouldn’t end,” Barkindo told reporters in Cairo.
“They have put forward a proposal for the time frame of the cooperation, and that was five years. But this proposal isn’t final, and it’s a work in progress,” Bloomberg quoted Barkindo as saying.

Barkindo said producers’ “unprecedented conformity” with their targets for reducing output is driving progress towards a balanced market.

According to him, compliance reached a record level of 129 per cent in December, for a monthly average of 107 per cent last year, and preliminary estimates show that compliance in January will surpass December’s level.

Oil prices are currently at less than half their 2014 peak, with benchmark Brent crude futures up 0.8 per cent at $63.28 a barrel in London Monday.

Brent tumbled 8.4 per cent last week, in the second consecutive weekly loss.

“It’s a correction only. It will come back,” Kuwaiti Oil Minister, Bakheet Al-Rashidi told reporters in Kuwait City.

Kuwait expects cooperation on oil policy to continue beyond 2018, he said.

“We will look for criteria to make sure the market is stable at all times,” he added.

In a presentation titled “Global Energy Transition: Which Way Forward Nigeria?” at the 2nd West Africa International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (WAIPEC) in Lagos, Attah said the global energy landscape was changing with major concerns for the environment, such as global warming, and increasing demand for cleaner energy.

He remarked that with reduced appetite for crude oil as a dependable source of energy, gas is the best option for Nigeria in the future.

“The best bet for Nigeria is gas. It is available in abundance and three times cleaner than oil in terms of carbon content. Nigeria has to begin to think about the relevance of oil in the future. Nigeria has to start to develop its gas resources in readiness for this future. Some critics say gas is not profitable but let me draw your attention to Qatar, a small fishing economy which was transformed from a GDP per capita of $2,000 in 1970 to a GDP per capita of $124, 000 in 2017 using gas,” Attah said.

“Gas can lift Nigeria, which is where NLNG comes in. NLNG is producing 22 Million Metric Tonnes Per Annum (MMTPA) but we are not resting on our oars. We want to construct a Train 7 that will increase our capacity to 30 MTPA. It is time for gas. It is time to unleash Nigeria’s potential. That is how we can survive the future with increasing appetite for renewable energy,” Attah added.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Nigeria’s N3.3tn Power Sector Rescue Package Unveiled

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President Bola Tinubu has given the green light for a comprehensive N3.3 trillion rescue package.

This ambitious initiative seeks to tackle the country’s mounting power sector debts, which have long hindered the efficiency and reliability of electricity supply across the nation.

The unveiling of this rescue package represents a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s quest for a sustainable energy future. With power outages being a recurring nightmare for both businesses and households, the need for decisive action has never been more urgent.

At the heart of the rescue package are measures aimed at settling the staggering debts accumulated within the power sector. President Tinubu has approved a phased approach to debt repayment, encompassing cash injections and promissory notes.

This strategic allocation of funds aims to provide immediate relief to power-generating companies (Gencos) and gas suppliers, while also ensuring long-term financial stability within the sector.

Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Minister of Power, revealed details of the rescue package at the 8th Africa Energy Marketplace held in Abuja.

Speaking at the event themed, “Towards Nigeria’s Sustainable Energy Future,” Adelabu emphasized the government’s commitment to eliminating bottlenecks and fostering policy coherence within the power sector.

One of the key highlights of the rescue package is the allocation of funds from the Gas Stabilisation Fund to settle outstanding debts owed to gas suppliers.

This critical step not only addresses the immediate liquidity concerns of gas companies but also paves the way for enhanced cooperation between gas suppliers and power generators.

Furthermore, the rescue package includes provisions for addressing the legacy debts owed to power-generating companies.

By utilizing future royalties and income streams from the gas sub-sector, the government aims to provide a sustainable solution that incentivizes investment in power generation capacity.

The announcement of the N3.3 trillion rescue package comes amidst ongoing efforts to revitalize Nigeria’s power sector.

Recent initiatives, including tariff adjustments and regulatory reforms, underscore the government’s determination to overcome longstanding challenges and enhance the sector’s effectiveness.

However, challenges persist, as highlighted by Barth Nnaji, a former Minister of Power, who emphasized the need for a robust transmission network to support increased power generation.

Nnaji’s advocacy for a super grid underscores the importance of infrastructure development in ensuring the reliability and stability of Nigeria’s power supply.

In light of these developments, stakeholders have welcomed the unveiling of the N3.3 trillion rescue package as a decisive step towards transforming Nigeria’s power sector.

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Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

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Nigeria's Inflation Rate - Investors King

Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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