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Business Activity Grew at Slower Pace Across Africa in January

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  • Business Activity Grew at Slower Pace Across Africa in January

Business activities grew at a slower pace in most African nations surveyed by Stanbic Bank in January.

According to the survey, business output across Kenyan private sector stood at 52.9 in January, slightly below the 52.9 recorded in December. Still, the second largest reading since December 2016.

Input cost accelerated at the fastest pace since September 2015, however, the high purchasing price did not deter consumer spending as it surged to the highest level since December 2016.

In Uganda, Purchasing Managers’ Index for private sector expanded at 52 in January, also below the 54.3 in December. While this was the twelfth consecutive expansion, it also indicates sustained growth.

Jibran Qureishi, the Regional Economist at Stanbic Bank said: “We expect both an improvement in agricultural productivity and an increase in public investment in infrastructure to support economic activity over the coming year, which is why we see GDP growth expanding by 5.6% in Uganda in 2018.”

Ghana’s private sector activity grew at 52.6 in January, the weakest growth since September 2016 and lower than the 53.5 recorded in December 2017 but consistent with economic condition.

According to Ayomide Mejabi, an Economist at Stanbic Bank, “After improving at a really strong pace for most of 2017, the Ghanaian private sector’s growth slowed moderately in January. However, at 52.6 the headline PMI still indicates that business conditions remain healthy in Ghana. It is our expectation that the economy should continue benefitting from expansion in oil production as well as a more favourable credit environment. As such, we expect that the economy should grow by at least 7.0 percent year on year over the course of the next two years.”

In South Africa, private sector remained in contraction, the sector grew by 49, below the 50 that separates expansion from contraction. However, this was higher than the 48.4 recorded in the last month of 2017. Output plunged to the lowest in 10 months, while new business declined for the sixth month running and client demand nosedive.

Also, in Zambia output expanded at a slower pace in January, expanding at 50.7. Below the 52.9 from the preceding month. This was attributed to the cholera outbreak in the small country.

Victor Chileshe, the Head of Global Markets at Stanbic Bank said: “The effects of the cholera outbreak and the measures taken thereafter by government have had a significant impact on business activity in January. Higher purchase costs are likely to have largely been driven by a strong Rand. Rand has appreciated by 15% over last three months. The Rand is a significant component of Zambia’s import basket.”

In Nigeria, the business activity in the private sector grew to the highest in 37 months. The Purchasing Managers’ Index grew at 57.3, up from 56.8 in December. The strongest rate of expansion in more than three years.

Ayomide Mejabi, an Economist at Stanbic IBTC Bank said: “The strong expansion in the Nigerian private sector as indicated by the January 2018 headline PMI is in line with our expectation of more robust real GDP growth this year. At 57.3, the PMI rose from an average of 56.0 in Q4:17 and 54.9 in Q3:17, mainly driven by the substantial rise in output levels with the output PMI rising to 64.8 from 60.7 (on average) in Q4:17. New orders also rose to 62.5 from 61.2 in December and 53.9 in January 2017.”

“Admittedly, our expectation of a 2.5 percent year-on-year growth in 2018 mainly reflects our confidence that the oil sector will remain supportive. That said, the moderate signs of macroeconomic rebalancing which were evident in 2017 suggests that there are upside risks to our base growth forecast. Starting from Q4:17, it is expected that the non-oil sector will start delivering growth after it remained in contractionary territory in H1:17.”

“It was strange that many non-oil sectors contracted between May and September 2017 despite an improvement in FX liquidity. The effective easing in monetary policy since then should prove supportive to growth in 2018.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

IOCs Stick to Dollar Dominance in Crude Oil Transactions with Modular Refineries

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Crude Oil - Investors King

International Oil Companies (IOCs) are standing firm on their stance regarding the currency denomination for crude oil transactions with modular refineries.

Despite earlier indications suggesting a potential shift towards naira payments, IOCs have asserted their preference for dollar dominance in these transactions.

The decision, communicated during a meeting involving indigenous modular refineries and crude oil producers, shows the complex dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy landscape.

While the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had previously hinted at the possibility of allowing indigenous refineries to purchase crude oil in either naira or dollars, IOCs have maintained a firm stance favoring the latter.

Under this framework, modular refineries would be required to pay 80% of the crude oil purchase amount in US dollars, with the remaining 20% to be settled in naira.

This arrangement, although subject to ongoing discussions, signals a significant departure from initial expectations of a more balanced currency allocation.

Representatives from the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said the decision was not unilaterally imposed but rather reached through deliberations with relevant stakeholders, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While there were initial hopes of broader flexibility in currency options, the dominant position of IOCs has steered discussions towards a more dollar-centric model.

Despite reservations expressed by some participants, including modular refinery operators, the consensus appears to lean towards accommodating the preferences of major crude oil suppliers.

The development underscores the intricate negotiations and power dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy sector, with implications for both domestic and international stakeholders.

As discussions continue, attention remains focused on how this decision will impact the operations and financial viability of modular refineries in Nigeria’s evolving oil landscape.

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Energy

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery Overtakes European Giants in Capacity, Bloomberg Reports

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Aliko Dangote - Investors King

The Dangote Refinery has surpassed some of Europe’s largest refineries in terms of capacity, according to a recent report by Bloomberg.

The $20 billion Dangote refinery, located in Lagos, boasts a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels of petroleum products per day, positioning it as a formidable player in the global refining industry.

Bloomberg’s data highlighted that the Dangote refinery’s capacity exceeds that of Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands by over 246,000 barrels per day. Making Dangote’s facility a significant contender in the refining industry.

The report also underscored the scale of Dangote’s refinery compared to other prominent European refineries.

For instance, the TotalEnergies Antwerp refining facility in Belgium can refine 338,000 barrels per day, while the GOI Energy ISAB refinery in Italy was built with a refining capacity of 360,000 barrels per day.

Describing the Dangote refinery as a ‘game changer,’ Bloomberg emphasized its strategic advantage of leveraging cheaper U.S. oil imports for a substantial portion of its feedstock.

Analysts anticipate that the refinery’s operations will have a transformative impact on Nigeria’s fuel market and the broader region.

The refinery has already commenced shipping products in recent weeks while preparing to ramp up petrol output.

Analysts predict that Dangote’s refinery will influence Atlantic Basin gasoline markets and significantly alter the dynamics of the petroleum trade in West Africa.

Reuters recently reported that the Dangote refinery has the potential to disrupt the decades-long petrol trade from Europe to Africa, worth an estimated $17 billion annually.

With a configured capacity to produce up to 53 million liters of petrol per day, the refinery is poised to meet a significant portion of Nigeria’s fuel demand and reduce the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and the visionary behind the refinery, has demonstrated his commitment to revolutionizing Nigeria’s energy landscape. As the Dangote refinery continues to scale up its operations, it is poised to not only bolster Nigeria’s energy security but also emerge as a key player in the global refining industry.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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