Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook January 15-19

Published

6 years ago

January 13, 2018

Samed Olukoya

Forex Weekly Outlook January 15-19

EURUSD

The German coalition agreement and the change in European Central Bank’s stance towards monetary policy boosted Euro attractiveness against G10 currencies last week. The Euro single currency rose to a 3-year high against the U.S. dollar following a series of weaker than expected economic numbers.

The Euro gained 163 pips against the U.S. dollar to trade above 1.2116 levels on Friday, suggesting that the strong economic growth in the region amid political accord reached in Germany is supporting Euro bullish run. Even though the region economy remained strong with rising demand, the U.S. fundamentals are equally strong with consumer prices gradually picking up and businesses like Wal-Mart announcing pay rise following the tax cut. The U.S. economy is poised for more gains in 2018.

Therefore, break of 1.2116 levels is needed to validate bullish continuation, especially with the odds of the Fed raising rates many times in 2018 increasing. Again, while 1.2500 price level is feasible in 2018, we don’t see it just yet and will treat the current upsurge as a temporary bullish move.

GBPUSD

In the U.K., the pound sustained its gains against the U.S. dollar for the fourth week in a roll despite the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit and slowdown in economic data. The pound has gained 420 pips against the U.S. dollar in the last one month to peak at an 18-month high for two main reasons, one, traders believe the pound is undervalued and sold off merely because of Brexit uncertainty. Two, the resiliency of the economy, despite political and economic uncertainties, to expand better than expected in 2017 while at the same time maintaining a record-low unemployment rate. Means, the widely projected global economic growth and expanding economic activities would boost British economic outlook better in 2018 and support the sluggish wage growth.

Again, while the weak U.S. dollar aided this pair move above the 1.3665 level, the renewed interest in the pound is likely to further bolster the pair towards 1.3798 resistance level. Hence, we remain bullish on GBPUSD in the near term as long as the price stays above 1.3665 support levels.

USDJPY

Since the Bank of Japan announced it will reduce its long-dated bond-buying program on Wednesday, the Yen has surged against the U.S. dollar to 111.03. But with experts treating the unexpected change in monetary stance as a sign of growing economy, the Yen is expected to gain even further as traders are already predicting rate hike by the middle of the year.

Also, with the U.S. dollar not very attractive at the moment, the haven status of the Yen and improved global economy fueling growth in the world’s third-largest economy is more likely to aid USDJPY to 109.16 support levels in the coming days. This week, we are bearish on USDJPY with 109.16 as the target.

EURNZD

The rebound in the Euro single currency following the news of German coalition accord and the change in ECB’s monetary stance erased EURNZD’s weekly gains. But as long as 1.7094 holds, our bearish view on this pair stands. One, because of improved in commodity-dependent economies like the New Zealand and the fact that we do not see this pair toppling 1.7481 reached in November 2017.

So we will be treating the bullish pin bar as temporary rebound and wait for further confirmation above or below the 1.6804 levels to affirm our position on EURNZD. Meaning, this week we are neutral on EURNZD but will update on the first sign of confirmation.

USDCHF

Despite the weak Swiss fundamentals, the Swiss Franc sustained its gains against the U.S. dollar last week.

As previously stated, the weak U.S. dollar sentiment is weighing on this pair and expected to continue this week. Therefore, we are bearish on USDCHF this week with 0.9610 as the target.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 25th, 2024

As of April 25th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,300 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

7 hours ago

April 25, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King

As of April 25th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,300 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,260 and sell it at N1,250 on Wednesday, April 24th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

Buying Rate: N1,300
Selling Rate: N1,290

Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 24th, 2024

As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

1 day ago

April 24, 2024

Samed Olukoya

As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,250 and sell it at N1,240 on Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined slightly when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

Buying Rate: N1,260
Selling Rate: N1,250

Naira

Nigeria’s Naira Dips 5.3% Against Dollar, Raises Concerns Over Reserve Levels

Published

1 day ago

April 24, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Nigerian Naira depreciated by 5.3% against the US dollar as concerns over declining foreign reserves raise questions about the central bank’s ability to sustain liquidity.

The local currency has now declined for the third consecutive day since the Naira retreated from its three-month high on Friday shortly after Bloomberg pointed out that the Naira gains were inversely proportional to foreign reserves’ growth.

According to data from Lagos-based FMDQ, the naira’s value dropped precipitously, halting its recent impressive performance.

The unofficial market saw an even steeper decline of 6%, extending the currency’s retreat over the past three trading days to a staggering 17%.

Abubakar Muhammed, Chief Executive of Forward Marketing Bureau de Change Ltd., expressed concerns over the sharp decline, highlighting the insufficient supply of dollars in the market.

Muhammed noted that despite a 27% increase in traded volume at the foreign exchange market on Monday, the supply remained inadequate, forcing the naira to soften further while excess demand shifted to the unofficial market.

The dwindling foreign exchange reserves have been a cause for alarm, with Nigeria’s gross dollar reserves steadily declining for 17 consecutive days to reach $32 billion as of April 19, the lowest level since September 2017.

This worrisome trend has raised questions about the adequacy of dollar inflows to rebuild reserves, especially after the central bank settled overdue dollar obligations earlier in the year.

Samir Gadio, Head of Africa Strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, pointed out that while the naira had been supported by onshore dollar selling, the rally was likely overextended.

Gadio warned that the emergence of a dislocation in the market, with domestic participants selling dollars at increasingly lower spot levels was unsustainable and necessitated a correction.

The central bank’s efforts to stabilize the naira have been evident with interventions aimed at improving liquidity.

However, the effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain, particularly as the central bank offered dollars to bureau de change operators at a rate 17% below the official rate tracked by FMDQ.

Analysts, including Ayodeji Dawodu from Banctrust Investment Bank, foresee further challenges ahead, predicting that the naira will likely stabilize around 1,500 against the dollar by year-end.

Dawodu emphasized the importance of stabilizing the currency to attract strong foreign capital inflows, underscoring the significance of sustainable monetary policies in Nigeria’s economic recovery.

As Nigeria grapples with the repercussions of the naira’s depreciation and declining foreign reserves, policymakers face mounting pressure to implement measures that ensure stability and foster confidence in the economy.

The road ahead remains uncertain, with the fate of the naira intricately tied to Nigeria’s ability to address underlying economic vulnerabilities and bolster investor trust.