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Soft U.S. Core Inflation May Keep Fed From Speeding Up Hikes

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  • Soft U.S. Core Inflation May Keep Fed From Speeding Up Hikes

An unexpected cooling in a key measure of U.S. inflation means Federal Reserve policy makers may be hard-pressed to raise interest rates more aggressively in 2018.

The so-called core consumer price index, which excludes food and fuel, increased 0.1 percent in November from the prior month and 1.7 percent from a year earlier, less than the median projections of economists, a Labor Department report showed Wednesday. Including all items, CPI rose 0.4 percent from October, accelerating thanks to a jump in energy prices.

Treasury yields fell after the report, which indicated that underlying inflation is still having trouble gaining momentum, though central bankers have said transitory factors are probably holding down prices. While inflation is below target, steady economic growth and unemployment at a 16-year low are among reasons why the Fed is widely projected to raise borrowing costs a third time in 2017 at the conclusion of its two-day meeting Wednesday.

The report “is a little on the soft side,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Plc, who formerly worked at the Fed. “We still have the conundrum of solid employment, a declining unemployment rate but modest price and wage pressures.”

Even so, “the rate hike today is all but a foregone conclusion,” as policy makers expect inflation to remain weak through the first quarter anyway and price gains are likely to be “stuck below the Fed’s target for a while,” he said.

The CPI rose 2.2 percent from a year earlier, matching the median estimate of analysts following October’s 2 percent gain.

The slowdown in core inflation can be partly attributed to the shelter index’s rise of 0.2 percent from the previous month, the smallest gain since July. Shelter accounts for about one-third of the headline index. In addition, the medical-care index was unchanged after a 0.3 percent gain in October, while apparel prices slumped 1.3 percent, the biggest drop since 1998.

While economists and investors see a Fed interest-rate hike on Wednesday as a near-certainty, with the decision due at 2 p.m. in Washington, the softer details of the latest CPI report could play a role in the timing and number of rate increases in 2018. Policy makers will also update their economic projections for next year. Their September forecast showed a median of three rate increases in 2018.

The central bank’s preferred gauge of inflation — a separate figure based on consumer purchases and issued by the Commerce Department — has mostly missed its 2 percent goal in the past five years. November figures will be released Dec. 22.

Economists expect that steady demand in the U.S. and abroad and the tightening job market will boost pricing power over time. Yet that would risk crimping purchasing power for consumers, who have benefited from contained inflation throughout this expansion, especially as wage growth has been weak.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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gold bars - Investors King

Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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