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Nigeria’s Debt Grows by N8tn in Two Years

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  • Nigeria’s Debt Grows by N8tn in Two Years

Nigeria’s total debt stock rose by N8tn between September 2015 and September 2017, according to statistics provided by the Debt Management Office.

The DMO said the country’s total debt stock as of the end of September this year stood at N20.37tn, while the figure at the same period in 2015 stood at N12.36tn.

This means that within a period of two years, the country’s total debt exposure rose by N8.1tn. In terms of percentage increase, the country’s total debt rose by 64.81 in the period.

The DMO did not give a breakdown of the federal and state governments’ components of the total debt commitment. However, the bulk of the debt usually belongs to the Federal Government.

As of 2015, the external loan component of the country’s total debt stood at N2.09tn. However, as of September 30, 2017, the external debt component stood at N4.60tn. This means that the external debt component rose by N2.6tn or 124.4 per cent.

The domestic debt component of the total debt, on the other hand, rose from N10.27tn as of September 2015 to N15.68tn the same time this year.

This means that within the two-year period, the domestic debt rose by N5.41tn. In percentage terms, the domestic debt increased by 52.68 per cent.

Although the external debt component of the total debt increased by a higher proportion, the debt statistics as of September 2017 show that the domestic debt, with its high cost of servicing, still dominates the country’s borrowing pattern.

However, the growth in the external debt component may reflect the Federal Government’s move to take more foreign loans as against the acquisition of more costly local debts.

The Federal Government is actually in a process of taking a $3bn foreign loan to refinance some local debts that are matured and another $2.5bn to finance the deficit in the 2017 budget.

In a statement issued by the DMO in Abuja on Tuesday, it said the Federal Government would save N91bn on local debt servicing if it secured the $3bn to refinance the local debts.

It added that the Federal Government would save another N75bn in debt servicing if it got $2.5bn from foreign sources to finance the gap in the 2017 budget rather than from local sources.

These add up to N166bn savings in debt servicing through external financing compared with local financing.

The statement also highlighted the marginal increase in the nation’s total debt portfolio when compared to the status as of June.

The statement read in part, “The total public debt stock, comprising the Federal Government, states and Federal Capital Territory’s, stood at N20.37tn as of September 30, showing a marginal increase of 3.6 per cent from the N19.634tn as of June 30.

“A breakdown of the debt stock shows that domestic debt accounted for 76.96 per cent, while external debt accounted for 23.04 per cent.

“Specifically, the domestic debt stock was N15.68tn, which is an increase of 4.1 per cent compared to N15.03tn as of June 30. On the other hand, the external debt stock stood at N4.69tn, a marginal rise of 1.9 per cent above the N4.6tn figure as of June 30.

“These debt data lend credence to the government’s claims that the public debt stock is skewed in favour of domestic debt, which is partly responsible for the high debt service figures.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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