Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook November 13-17

Published

7 years ago

November 12, 2017

Forex Weekly Outlook November 13-17

The US dollar fell across the board last week following the report that Senate Republican leaders are considering a one-year delay of the tax cut. This pushed the US dollar to a one-week low against the Yen and plunged the US stock market further.

“The delay to the tax cut by one year is certainly a key one for the markets. Many Republicans are also very opposed to the removal of local and state tax deductions. And that’s before we get to those opposed to the simple fact that $1.5tn of debt will be the end result of this plan,” said Derek Halpenny, an analyst at MUFG.

Despite the uncertainty weighing on the US financial markets, the economic fundamentals remain strong with the labor market absorbing more workers and unemployment rate shrinking. Meaning, while the failure to push through with tax reform might hurt business confidence and the US dollar attractiveness in the mid-term, the economy remains healthy from a fundamental standpoint and the decline in the US dollar will merely boost exports and further stimulate the economy.

In China, the People’s Bank of China announced it will remove foreign ownership limits on banks and asset-management firms while encouraging foreign businesses to own majority stakes in local financial companies. This, expert believe will broaden China’s financial system and give global financial companies unrestrained access to the world’s second-largest economy. China’s economy expanded by 6.8 percent in the third quarter after a 6.9 percent growth from the second quarter. Indicating the second largest economy is likely to exceed 2017 growth projection.

In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5 percent while at the same time sounding pessimistic about future price pressures. According to the central bank, wage growth remains low and strong price competition between retailers continued to inhibit retail inflation across a broad range of goods. This, the central bank expects to continue for a while.

The weak economic fundamental dipped the Australian dollar against the G10 currencies last week, this includes the US dollar that plunged across the board.

This week NZDJPY, AUDJPY, AUDNZD, and AUDJPY top our list

NZDJPY

Since the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced its two years inflation expectation dropped from 2.09 percent to 2 percent last week, the attractiveness of the New Zealand dollar has dropped as traders interpreted it as no interest rate hike until 2019. Meaning, the price pressures remain subdued even though improved global growth continued to support exports.

But on the other hand, the Japanese Yen attractiveness surged following the uncertainty surrounding the US tax cut, and this is expected to further aid NZDJPY bearish move below the 78.83 resistance level towards our second target of 76.25. Again, since the New Zealand coalition party was formed, this pair has been trading below the ascending channel as projected in the past analysis, however, the volume of trade remains subdued.

AUDNZD

The weak Australian economic fundamentals continued to weigh on the Aussie dollar and plunged the Aussie dollar by 204 pips against the Kiwi since peaking at a 17-month high of 1.1288 in October.

While the New Zealand dollar is not great at the moment, the Australian dollar is worse and investors are taking advantage of the wield movement of this pair. Also, the gravestone doji indicates upsurge is waning, therefore, I will expect a break of the ascending line at 1.1008, double Bottom, to open up 1.0922 support level. But a break of 1.11104 resistance level and the 20-day moving average would validate upsurge continuation and nullify this analysis.

AUDJPY

As explained last week, the weak wage growth and rising household debt are hurting Australian consumers’ income and economic outlook going forward.

Therefore, this week I remain bearish on AUDJPY as explained previously.

AUDUSD

We remain bearish on AUDUSD and expect a sustained break of 0.7784 targets to open up 0.7621 support level in days to come. The Australian dollar is overpriced, and as stated by the Governor of Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, high foreign exchange rates would hurt economic progress.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 17th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Published

2 days ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,560 and sold it at ₦1,550 on Thursday, May 16th, 2024.

This indicates a slight improvement in the Naira exchange rate when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

Buying Rate: ₦1,540
Selling Rate: ₦1,530

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Forex

SEC and ABCON Explore Collaboration for ‘Kolectyomoni’ Digital Currency Platform

Published

2 days ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON) has initiated talks with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to explore collaboration on its upcoming digital currency market platform, ‘Kolectyomoni’.

This move was underscored during an official visit by ABCON representatives to the newly appointed Director General of the SEC, Dr. Timi Agama. Aminu Gwadabe, President of ABCON, conveyed the association’s eagerness to engage with SEC to ensure the smooth operation of its digital currency platform.

Gwadabe emphasized that ABCON recognizes the regulatory oversight of SEC in the financial sector and seeks its guidance to navigate the complexities of the digital currency market.

He pointed out that while digital currencies hold immense potential for financial inclusion and innovation, they also present regulatory challenges that require collaborative efforts between industry stakeholders and regulatory bodies.

Highlighting the significance of embracing digital currencies, Gwadabe noted, “The future of BDC’s business is digital currency.”

He stressed the growing adoption of digital currencies among Nigerians, citing statistics that reveal a rising number of participants in the digital currency ecosystem, with a substantial market size of $9 billion annually.

In response, Dr. Timi Agama expressed SEC’s openness to support and facilitate the growth of the digital currency sector in Nigeria.

He acknowledged ABCON’s initiative in launching the ‘Kolectyomoni’ platform and assured of SEC’s cooperation in providing regulatory guidance and oversight.

Agama reaffirmed SEC’s commitment to fostering innovation in the financial sector while ensuring investor protection and market integrity.

He underscored the importance of collaboration between regulators and industry players to develop robust frameworks that foster innovation and safeguard against potential risks.

Furthermore, Agama encouraged ABCON to finalize the development of the ‘Kolectyomoni’ digital currency platform and submit it to the SEC for thorough review and assessment by the technical team.

He emphasized the need for timely regulatory oversight to address emerging trends in the digital currency market and maintain regulatory compliance.

Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 16th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Published

4 days ago

May 16, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,530 and sold it at ₦1,520 on Wednesday, May 15th, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate compared to the current rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.