Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook November 13-17

Published

6 years ago

November 12, 2017

Forex Weekly Outlook November 13-17

The US dollar fell across the board last week following the report that Senate Republican leaders are considering a one-year delay of the tax cut. This pushed the US dollar to a one-week low against the Yen and plunged the US stock market further.

“The delay to the tax cut by one year is certainly a key one for the markets. Many Republicans are also very opposed to the removal of local and state tax deductions. And that’s before we get to those opposed to the simple fact that $1.5tn of debt will be the end result of this plan,” said Derek Halpenny, an analyst at MUFG.

Despite the uncertainty weighing on the US financial markets, the economic fundamentals remain strong with the labor market absorbing more workers and unemployment rate shrinking. Meaning, while the failure to push through with tax reform might hurt business confidence and the US dollar attractiveness in the mid-term, the economy remains healthy from a fundamental standpoint and the decline in the US dollar will merely boost exports and further stimulate the economy.

In China, the People’s Bank of China announced it will remove foreign ownership limits on banks and asset-management firms while encouraging foreign businesses to own majority stakes in local financial companies. This, expert believe will broaden China’s financial system and give global financial companies unrestrained access to the world’s second-largest economy. China’s economy expanded by 6.8 percent in the third quarter after a 6.9 percent growth from the second quarter. Indicating the second largest economy is likely to exceed 2017 growth projection.

In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5 percent while at the same time sounding pessimistic about future price pressures. According to the central bank, wage growth remains low and strong price competition between retailers continued to inhibit retail inflation across a broad range of goods. This, the central bank expects to continue for a while.

The weak economic fundamental dipped the Australian dollar against the G10 currencies last week, this includes the US dollar that plunged across the board.

This week NZDJPY, AUDJPY, AUDNZD, and AUDJPY top our list

NZDJPY

Since the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced its two years inflation expectation dropped from 2.09 percent to 2 percent last week, the attractiveness of the New Zealand dollar has dropped as traders interpreted it as no interest rate hike until 2019. Meaning, the price pressures remain subdued even though improved global growth continued to support exports.

But on the other hand, the Japanese Yen attractiveness surged following the uncertainty surrounding the US tax cut, and this is expected to further aid NZDJPY bearish move below the 78.83 resistance level towards our second target of 76.25. Again, since the New Zealand coalition party was formed, this pair has been trading below the ascending channel as projected in the past analysis, however, the volume of trade remains subdued.

AUDNZD

The weak Australian economic fundamentals continued to weigh on the Aussie dollar and plunged the Aussie dollar by 204 pips against the Kiwi since peaking at a 17-month high of 1.1288 in October.

While the New Zealand dollar is not great at the moment, the Australian dollar is worse and investors are taking advantage of the wield movement of this pair. Also, the gravestone doji indicates upsurge is waning, therefore, I will expect a break of the ascending line at 1.1008, double Bottom, to open up 1.0922 support level. But a break of 1.11104 resistance level and the 20-day moving average would validate upsurge continuation and nullify this analysis.

AUDJPY

As explained last week, the weak wage growth and rising household debt are hurting Australian consumers’ income and economic outlook going forward.

Therefore, this week I remain bearish on AUDJPY as explained previously.

AUDUSD

We remain bearish on AUDUSD and expect a sustained break of 0.7784 targets to open up 0.7621 support level in days to come. The Australian dollar is overpriced, and as stated by the Governor of Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, high foreign exchange rates would hurt economic progress.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Forex

Yen Hits 34-Year Low Against Dollar Despite Bank of Japan’s Inaction

Published

13 hours ago

April 26, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The Japanese yen plummeted to a 34-year low against the US dollar, sending shockwaves through global financial markets.

Despite mounting pressure and speculation, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) chose to maintain its key interest rate.

The yen’s relentless slide, extending to 0.7% to 156.66 against the dollar, underscores deep concerns about Japan’s economic stability and the efficacy of its monetary policies.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s remarks at a post-meeting news conference did little to assuage fears as he acknowledged the impact of foreign exchange dynamics on inflation but downplayed the yen’s influence on underlying prices.

Investors, already on edge due to the yen’s dismal performance this year, are now bracing for further volatility amid speculation of imminent intervention by Japanese authorities.

The absence of decisive action from the BOJ has heightened uncertainty, with concerns looming over the potential repercussions of a prolonged yen depreciation.

The implications of the yen’s decline extend far beyond Japan’s borders, reverberating across global markets. The currency’s status as the worst-performing among major currencies in the Group of Ten (G-10) underscores its significance in the international financial landscape.

Policymakers have issued repeated warnings against excessive depreciation, signaling a commitment to intervene if necessary to safeguard economic stability.

Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated the government’s readiness to respond to foreign exchange fluctuations, emphasizing the need for vigilance in the face of market volatility.

However, the lack of concrete action from Japanese authorities has left investors grappling with uncertainty, unsure of the yen’s trajectory in the days to come.

Market analysts warn of the potential for further downside risk, particularly in light of upcoming economic data releases and the prospect of thin trading volumes due to public holidays in Japan.

The absence of coordinated intervention efforts and a clear policy stance only exacerbates concerns, fueling speculation about the yen’s future trajectory.

The yen’s current predicament evokes memories of past episodes of currency turmoil, prompting comparisons to Japan’s intervention in 2022 when the currency experienced a similar downward spiral.

The prospect of history repeating itself looms large, as market participants weigh the possibility of intervention against the backdrop of an increasingly volatile global economy.

As Japan grapples with the yen’s precipitous decline, the stakes have never been higher for policymakers tasked with restoring stability to the currency markets. With the world watching closely, the fate of the yen hangs in the balance, poised between intervention and inertia in the face of unprecedented challenges.

Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 25th, 2024

As of April 25th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,300 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

1 day ago

April 25, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King

As of April 25th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,300 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,260 and sell it at N1,250 on Wednesday, April 24th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

Buying Rate: N1,300
Selling Rate: N1,290

Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 24th, 2024

As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

2 days ago

April 24, 2024

Samed Olukoya

As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,250 and sell it at N1,240 on Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined slightly when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.