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Rand Falls to Six-Month Low as S. Africa Projects Wider Deficits

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  • Rand Falls to Six-Month Low as S. Africa Projects Wider Deficits

The rand slid to the lowest in more than six months after South Africa forecast wider fiscal deficits over the next three years.

The currency fell for a fourth day against the dollar as Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba painted a bleak picture of the state of the country’s finances in his first mid-term budget on Wednesday, with growth and revenue set to fall well short of projections made in February. Yields on the nation’s bonds rose as the projections raised the risk of further credit-rating downgrades, with the nation’s debt already rated junk by S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings Ltd.

The mid-term budget comes a week after President Jacob Zuma rattled markets by shaking up the cabinet for the second time in seven months. Slow economic growth is hampering the state’s ability to meet its revenue targets, and any further rating downgrade could spur capital outflows out of the nation.

“Although it is of some small comfort that the Treasury brought realism into its projections, the fact remains that the country faces alarming consequences in growth, fiscal performance, and financial market stability stemming from possible credit rating downgrades,” said Phoenix Kalen, an emerging-market strategist at Societe Generale in London. “Although there may be a slight bounce after today’s sizeable slide, the bias on the rand is for further weakness in the lead-up to the December ANC conference.”

The rand traded 1.4 percent weaker at 13.9424 per dollar as of 2:40 p.m. in Johannesburg and touched 13.9459, its lowest since April 11. The yield on the nation’s 10-year bonds rose 16 basis points to 9.01 percent.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Naira

Naira Records Marginal Rise on Dollar as Supply Weakens

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New Naira Notes

The Naira exchange rate improved slightly in the official forex market as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) failed to resume the retail Dutch auctions again.

The Naira rose by 0.16 percent on the US Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) to exchange at N1,622.57/$1 on Thursday, October 10 amid a further drop in supply at the official market.

The local currency rose on the greenback by N2.56 versus N1,625.13/$1 which it closed at the previous session on Wednesday.

Demand for foreign currency continues to overshadow FX liquidity, leaping exchange rate movement tight across the markets.

Data showed a decline in supply as the turnover published on the FMDQ Group website stood at $145.56 million. This indicated that the session’s turnover fell by 14.7 percent, indicating an appreciation of $25.04 million compared to the $170.60 million published in the last trading session.

Meanwhile, the Naira witnessed losses against the Pound Sterling and the Euro. The domestic currency made a N41.18 slide on the British currency to wrap the penultimate session at N2,126.26/£1 from N2,085.08/£1 that it sold at the previous session.

In the same trend, against the Euro, the Nigerian currency closed at N1,772.69/€1 versus N1,746.58/€1, indicating an N26.11 depreciation.

In the Parallel market, the Naira closed at N1,674.48 to the US Dollar, a difference of N22.32 compared to N1,652.16 it closed during the Wednesday trading session.

The gap between official and parallel market rates had crossed N120 in the recent past until the Central Bank of Nigeria FX intervention which has brought the gap within N50-N60 on the greenback.

The Naira weakened its value against the Pound Sterling in the official market by N27.19 to sell at N2,140.38/£1 compared with the preceding session’s N2,113.19/£1.

It followed the same route against the Euro as it appreciated N22.57 to quote at N1,837.83/€1 versus the previous day’s rate of N1,815.26/€1.

The local currency also pulled a N4.66 depreciation to close on the Canadian Dollar at N1,211.06 against Wednesday’s N1,206.40 per CAD.

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Naira

Naira Gains on Dollar at Black Market, Falls at Official FX Market

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The Naira strengthened on the US Dollar at the black market but went the other route in the official market on Wednesday, October 9.

The local currency gained N15.23 from the N1,667.39 it closed in the previous session to settle at N1,652.16 at the black market on Wednesday.

At the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX), the local currency lost N63.37 or 4.1 percent to close at N1,625.13/$1, weaker from N1,561.76/$1 it closed on Tuesday.

The daily supply of FX as measured by secondary data from FMDQ Securities Exchange Limited indicated that turnover slumped by $83.08 million or 32.7 percent to $170.60 million from $253.68 million.

The decline in supply comes as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) eased with the latest data indicating that the country is not making enough foreign earnings.

For instance, Foreign Direct Investment into Nigeria in the second quarter of 2024 dropped to $29.83 million, a 65.33 percent drop compared to the $86.03 million recorded in the same period last year.

The development marks the lowest level in the last ten years.

It also reflected in both portfolio investments and foreign currency loans as Nigeria’s foreign portfolio investments for Q2 2024 stood at $1.40 billion, marking a sharp decline of 74.97 percent from $5.60 billion recorded in the preceding quarter, and a 65.3 percent drop compared to the $4.05 billion reported in Q2 2023.

Similarly, foreign loans, which constitute a substantial portion of Nigeria’s capital importation, recorded an inflow of $1.15 billion in Q2 2024, reflecting a 74.98 percent decrease from $4.60 billion in Q1 2024.

However, the Naira strengthened its value against the Pound Sterling in the official market by N46.54 to sell at N2,085.08/£1 compared with the preceding session’s N2,131.62/£1.

It followed the same route against the Euro as it appreciated N42.40 to quote at N1,746.58/€1 versus the previous day’s rate of N1,788.98/€1.

The local currency also recorded a gain on the UK Pound Sterling in the black market, the Naira rose to N2,113.19 an N18.94 gain from N2,132.13 and on the Euro, the Naira pulled an N18.37 appreciation to close at N1,815.26 versus N1,833.63 and added 53 cents on the Canadian Dollar to close at N1,206.40 against Monday’s N1,206.93 per CAD.

 

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Naira

Naira Gains on Dollars at NAFEX, Others at Black Market

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The Naira gained a value of N73.39 to close the Tuesday session at N1,561.76/$1 at the official window, pulling a 4.5 percent gain in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX).

According to data obtained from the FMDQ Securities Exchange, this is compared to N1,635.15/$1 published in the preceding session on Monday.

Turnover published on the FMDQ Group website stood at $253.68 million, indicating that the session’s turnover rose by 100.9 percent. This is a decrease of $127.44 million compared to $126.24 million published the previous day.

The domestic currency also witnessed a gain against the British currency but closed flat on the Euro on Tuesday.

On the Pound Sterling, the local currency made an appreciation of N43.82 to wrap the session at N2,131.62/£1 from N2,175.44/£1 that it sold at the previous session.

Meanwhile, against the Euro, the Nigerian currency closed at N1,788.98/€1.

Data from the black market showed that the Naira appreciated against the US Dollar, the UK Pound Sterling, the Euro, and the Canadian Dollar.

The local currency recorded a N14.28 gain to go from N1,681.67 per Dollar to N1,667.39/$1 while on the UK currency, the Naira rose to N2,132.13, a N24.10 gain from N2,156.23

For the Euro, the Naira pulled a N19.12 appreciation to close at N1,833.63 versus N1,852.75 and added 62 cents on the Canadian Dollar to close at N1,206.93 against Monday’s N1,207.55 per CAD.

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