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Rand Bulls Snub Risks as ING Sees South African Currency Rising

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  • Rand Bulls Snub Risks as ING Sees South African Currency Rising

Analysts at Rand Merchant Bank and ING Groep NV predict the South African currency, the second-worst emerging-market performer in the past month, will rebound against the dollar by year-end as the pull of improving fundamentals and the hunt for yield support buyers amid lingering political and fiscal risks.

The rand fell to a six-month low of 13.8618 per dollar this week as tepid economic growth, an African National Congress leadership battle and the threat of a widening budget deficit exacerbate an emerging-market currency sell-off. That pessimism may be overdone and investors should look through looming risk events, such as the Treasury’s medium-term fiscal update and the ANC’s elective conference, and focus on sources of underlying strength like a narrowing trade gap, according to ETM Analytics.

“We would expect the rand to appreciate in a normal environment,” said Halen Bothma, a market analyst at ETM. “If you erase the risks like the ANC conference and the medium-term budget policy statement, the fundamentals are supportive. We are modestly bullish on the rand.”

Rand Recovery

The currency has fallen about 7 percent since touching an almost three-month high on Sept. 6 as traders bought dollars on the expectation that the Federal Reserve will raise rates later this year. The South African currency has scope to turn that around, according to Rand Merchant Bank strategist John Cairns, who sees it strengthening to 13 per greenback by year-end.

“Even with recent weakness, the rand is still trading within existing ranges,” he said. “There is still a high number of event risks that could easily see the recent rand moves reverse.”

Analysts agree that the currency will recover, with the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey for it to strengthen to 13.28 per dollar by year-end. Strategists have raised their rand projections through 2017 as the South African currency benefited from carry appeal, low inflationary pressures and the country’s longest run of trade surpluses in six years, which has helped to narrow the current-account deficit.

“There is a huge amount going on in South Africa, but the external environment is reasonably benign,” said Chris Turner, global head of strategy at ING. “We think dollar strength will have run its course by the end of the year and investors will get back to carry. The rand will likely benefit from those flows.”

The road forward is far from clear though. The ANC’s contest to elect a new party leader, already marred by violence and legal disputes, will culminate in a conference between Dec. 16 and Dec. 20, with the outcome highly uncertain.

Downgrade Threat

Amid hamstrung growth, Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba’s medium-term fiscal statement on Oct. 25 may show a weaker tax outlook. If there is a deterioration in the budget consolidation path, assessments by Moody’s Investors Service and S&P Global Ratings scheduled for Nov. 24 could see the country’s local sovereign debt downgraded to junk.

“All these factors have affected sentiment,” Bothma said. “But the mushrooming trade account and narrowing inflation are all supportive of the rand. The currency could strengthen to a range of between 12.50 and 13.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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gold bars - Investors King

Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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