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Iran Says OPEC Must Address Rising Libya, Nigeria Oil Output

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  • Iran Says OPEC Must Address Rising Libya, Nigeria Oil Output

OPEC’s commitment to cutting production to clear a global glut is working, but the group needs to address rising output from Libya and Nigeria, Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said.

Compliance with the output cuts is “acceptable,” Zanganeh told reporters Sunday in Tehran. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries should focus on “the situation with Libya and Nigeria,” he said, referring to the two countries exempted from capping production due to their internal strife. Nigeria will be able to participate in cuts when its output stabilizes at 1.8 million barrels a day, Oil Minister Emmanuel Kachikwu said Friday.

“OPEC’s actions are working and compliance is acceptable overall, although there needs to be some change,” Zanganeh said, referring to OPEC members’ compliance with their pledges to pump less. “Changes are really related to Libya and Nigeria and the 100 percent compliance of everyone.” He didn’t elaborate.

OPEC and other global producers including Russia agreed to maintain output cuts through March to end a price rout that has battered their economies since 2014. Iran was part of the deal reached last year, though it was given special permission to raise output by 90,000 barrels a day. Libya and Nigeria were not part of the deal and have since increased production, complicating the efforts of the suppliers to reduce the glut. Benchmark Brent crude has dropped by about half from its 2014 peak.

OPEC backs any action to help stabilize the oil market, and if a meeting is needed for the group to decide whether to extend the cuts that expire in March, “we’ll arrange it,” Zanganeh said.

Iraqi Production

Iran “will consider everything within the framework of our national interest and cooperation with OPEC,” he said when asked whether the country would adjust its output.

Iraq supports OPEC’s efforts to pare oil output and clear a global glut even as the group’s second-biggest producer plans to expand its own capacity to pump more, Iraqi Oil Minister Jabbar al-Luaibi said Sunday at a news conference in Baghdad.

The country’s plan to boost capacity to 5 million barrels a day by the end of the year won’t affect crude markets, he said. Iraq won’t export all of its additional output, he said. The nation pumped 4.49 million barrels a day in August, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“The oil market’s status is stable, and we don’t accept that any country exceed its share” under OPEC’s deal to cut production, he said. “We support OPEC’s position to stabilize markets.”

Nigeria Rebound

Nigeria’s production of 1.7 million to 1.75 million barrels a day has climbed from an all-time low of about 1 million barrels a day, Kachikwu said Friday in a Bloomberg TV interview. Output will be “back in full swing” in five to six months, he said.

The United Arab Emirates, also participating in OPEC’s output cuts, is 100 percent compliant with its commitment to the agreement, and its crude exports have dropped as much as 10 percent in the past two months, Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei said Monday in Abu Dhabi. Oil prices should improve in the second half, and by next year crude inventories should decline to below their five-year average, he said. OPEC’s goal with the cuts is to reduce global inventories to the five-year historical average.

When OPEC meets next, some members that aren’t subject to output cuts may be asked to join the agreement, Mazrouei said. “The meeting will discuss whether to extend the production cut and also the possibility of including some countries” that don’t already have an output cap, he said.

Kurdish Referendum

Iraq is seeking to rebuild its energy industry after decades of conflict, and al-Luaibi sought to reassure oil markets a day before the country’s energy-rich, self-governing Kurdish area plans to vote on a referendum on independence. The central government opposes the vote, which many global powers say could create further instability in a region convulsed by war. The Kurds plan to include the disputed Kirkuk region, home to Iraq’s oldest producing oil fields, in the referendum.

Oil should be left out of the political wrangling over control of Kirkuk, al-Luaibi said. Kurds, Arabs and Turkmens are all competing to control Kirkuk, making it a potential flashpoint for conflict. The Baghdad-run North Oil Co. is currently pumping 500,000 barrels a day in northern Iraq, he said.

Iraq’s government is still in discussions with Royal Dutch Shell Plc, which quit Iraq’s southern Majnoon field and plans also to withdraw from the West Qurna-1 deposit, al-Luaibi said. It’s not talking with any other oil companies about replacing Shell, he said.

“We have no problems in finding international companies” to replace the oil major, al-Luaibi said, adding that Iraqi staff are capable of taking over from Shell.

Iraq will soon sign a deal with Iran to jointly invest in two oil fields, he said, without giving a date. It’s also in talks with Kuwait to jointly develop four fields and to ship surplus natural gas to Kuwait, he said.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Brent Approaches $83 as US Crude Inventories Decline

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As global oil markets remain volatile, Brent crude oil prices edged closer to the $83 per barrel price level following reports of a decline in US crude inventories.

The uptick in prices comes amidst ongoing concerns about supply constraints and rising demand, painting a complex picture for energy markets worldwide.

The latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) revealed a notable decrease of 3.1 million barrels in nationwide crude stockpiles for the previous week.

Also, there was a drawdown observed at the critical hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, a key indicator for market analysts tracking US oil inventories.

Investors and traders have been closely monitoring these inventory reports, seeking clues about the supply-demand dynamics in the global oil market.

The decline in US crude inventories has added to the optimism surrounding oil prices, pushing Brent towards the $83 threshold.

The positive sentiment in oil markets is also fueled by anticipation surrounding the upcoming report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Market participants are eager to glean insights from the IEA’s assessment, which is expected to shed light on supply-demand balances for the second half of the year.

However, the recent rally in oil prices comes against the backdrop of lingering concerns about inflationary pressures in the United States.

Persistent inflation has raised questions about the strength of demand for commodities like oil, leading to some caution among investors.

Furthermore, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) face their own challenges in navigating the current market dynamics.

The group is grappling with the decision of whether to extend production cuts at their upcoming meeting on June 1. Questions about member compliance with existing output quotas add another layer of complexity to the discussion.

Analysts warn that while the recent decline in US crude inventories is a positive development for oil prices, uncertainties remain.

Vishnu Varathan, Asia head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Singapore, highlighted the potential for “fraught and tense OPEC+ dynamics” as member countries seek to balance their economic interests with market stability.

As oil markets await the IEA report and US inflation data, the path forward for oil prices remains uncertain. Investors will continue to monitor inventory levels, demand trends, and geopolitical developments to gauge the future trajectory of global oil markets.

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Oil Prices Dip on Sluggish Demand Signs and Fed’s Interest Rate Outlook

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Oil prices on Monday dipped as the U.S. Federal Reserve officials’ comments showed a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments.

The dip in prices reflects concerns over the outlook for global economic growth and its implications for energy consumption in the world’s largest economy.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, slipped by 7 cents or 0.1% to $82.72 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil stood at $78.21 per barrel, a 5 cents decline.

Auckland-based independent analyst Tina Teng highlighted that the oil market’s focus has shifted from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East to the broader world economic outlook.

Concerns arose as China’s producer price index (PPI) contracted in April, signaling continued sluggishness in business demand.

Similarly, recent U.S. economic data suggested a slowdown, further dampening market sentiment.

The discussions among Federal Reserve officials regarding the adequacy of current interest rates to stimulate inflation back to the desired 2% level added to market jitters.

While earlier in the week, concerns over supply disruptions stemming from the Israel-Gaza conflict had provided some support to oil prices, the attention has now turned to macroeconomic indicators.

Analysts anticipate that the U.S. central bank will maintain its policy rate at the current level for an extended period, bolstering the dollar.

A stronger dollar typically makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for investors holding other currencies, thus contributing to downward pressure on oil prices.

Furthermore, signs of weak demand added to the bearish sentiment in the oil market. ANZ analysts noted that U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories increased in the week preceding the start of the U.S. driving season, indicating subdued demand for fuel.

Refiners globally are grappling with declining profits for diesel, driven by increased supplies and lackluster economic activity.

Despite the prevailing challenges, expectations persist that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies, collectively known as OPEC+, may extend supply cuts into the second half of the year.

Iraq, the second-largest OPEC producer, expressed commitment to voluntary oil production cuts and emphasized cooperation with member countries to stabilize global oil markets.

However, Iraq’s suggestion that it had fulfilled its voluntary reductions and reluctance to agree to additional cuts proposed by OPEC+ members stirred speculation and uncertainty in the market.

ING analysts pointed out that Iraq’s ability to implement further cuts might be limited, given its previous shortfall in adhering to voluntary reductions.

Meanwhile, in the United States, the oil rig count declined to its lowest level since November, signaling a potential slowdown in domestic oil production.

As oil markets continue to grapple with a complex web of factors influencing supply and demand dynamics, investors and industry stakeholders remain vigilant, closely monitoring developments and adjusting their strategies accordingly in an ever-evolving landscape.

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Brent Crude Hovers Above $84 as Demand Rises in U.S. and China

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Brent crude oil continued its upward trajectory above $84 a barrel as demand in the United States and China, the two largest consumers of crude globally increased.

This surge in demand coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has bolstered oil markets, maintaining Brent crude’s resilience above $84 a barrel.

The latest data revealed a surge in demand, particularly in the U.S. where falling crude inventories coincided with higher refinery runs.

This trend indicates growing consumption patterns and a positive outlook for oil demand in the world’s largest economy.

In China, oil imports for April exceeded last year’s figures, driven by signs of improving trade activity, as exports and imports returned to growth after a previous contraction.

ANZ Research analysts highlighted the ongoing strength in demand from China, suggesting that this could keep commodity markets well supported in the near term.

The positive momentum in demand from these key economies has provided a significant boost to oil prices in recent trading sessions.

However, amidst these bullish indicators, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have added further support to oil markets. Reports of a Ukrainian drone attack setting fire to an oil refinery in Russia’s Kaluga region have heightened concerns about supply disruptions and escalated tensions in the region.

Also, ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip has fueled apprehensions of broader unrest, particularly given Iran’s support for Palestinian group Hamas.

Citi analysts emphasized the geopolitical risks facing the oil market, pointing to Israel’s actions in Rafah and growing tensions along its northern border. They cautioned that such risks could persist throughout the second quarter of 2024.

Despite the current bullish sentiment, analysts anticipate a moderation in oil prices as global demand growth appears to be moderating with Brent crude expected to average $86 a barrel in the second quarter and $74 in the third quarter.

The combination of robust demand from key economies like the U.S. and China, coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, continues to influence oil markets with Brent crude hovering above $84 a barrel.

As investors closely monitor developments in both demand dynamics and geopolitical events, the outlook for oil prices remains subject to ongoing market volatility and uncertainty.

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