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Forex Weekly Outlook September 25-29



  • Forex Weekly Outlook September 25-29

The US Federal Reserve left interest rate unchanged last week, but announced the commencement of its $4.5 trillion balance sheet normalization in October and revised up economic growth forecast from 2.2 percent to 2.4 percent in 2017. Stating that continuous job creation and improved economic outlook will further aid the labor market and lower jobless rate in 2018 and 2019 to 4.1 percent. However, with the strong economic projection, the US dollar failed to sustain its earlier gains after Donald Trump’s comments on North Korea at the United Nations General Assembly.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan also kept the interest rate at -0.1 percent but maintained the ongoing quantitative easing program. A decision one of the Monetary Committee disagreed with and insisted that the current policy won’t pressure prices enough to attain the central bank’s 2 percent inflation target.

This week, EURJPY, AUDUSD, CADJPY, and NZDJPY picked last week top my list.


The Euro-area economy continued to improve amid growing business confidence. The manufacturing sector expanded by 58.2 in September, while the services sector grew by 55.6. Another indication of a healthy economy and increased business activities.

Adding this positive economic data to Angela Merkel wins in Germany, further validate the Euro bullish position and the continuous gain is expected to attract enough buyers to boost the EURJPY towards our target.


Also, the anti-U.S. rally staged in North Korea over the weekend would weigh on Japanese Yen this week and increase political uncertainty in the country. Again, a sustained break above the 21-month price level, as shown above, affirm bullish continuation. Therefore, I remain bullish on this pair with 136.25 as the target as explained last week.


The Reserve Bank of Australia’s dovish statement impacted Australian dollar’s outlook. However, the uncertainties in the U.S. are weighing on the U.S. dollar attractiveness and with the Anti-U.S. rally staged in the North Korea over the weekend, investors are likely to avoid the U.S. assets to avert volatility.

Forex Weekly Outlook September 25-29

Technically, the two pin bars above the ascending trendline indicates waning upside strength, but a close below the trendline and the 20-day moving average confirmed bearish continuation. But the increasing uncertainties in the U.S., including the Obamacare repeal vote due this week, could halt progress. Therefore, while I am bearish on  AUDUSD as I believe the Australian dollar is currently overpriced, I will be staying neutral to monitor geopolitical events in relation to price action.


The Canadian consumer prices improved in August to 1.4 percent on rising gasoline costs. Although it was below the 1.5 percent predicted by economists, it was higher than the 1.2 percent from preceding month. Yet the Canadian dollar dipped last week following Donald Trump’s comments. This is because Canada’s largest trading partner, the U.S., exert a certain effect on the economy.


This week, I will expect the gain in commodity prices and Japan’s uncertainty to boost this pair attractiveness for 93.15 resistance levels as explained last week.


As stated last week, This pair closed above the 20-day moving average last week. However, a close above the 81.02 resistance level is needed to validate bullish continuation. Therefore, this week I will look to buy this pair above 81.02 resistance level and expect a sustained break to boost its demand towards 83.81 targets.

Forex Weekly Outlook September 25-29

This week, I remain bullish on this pair for two reasons: Haven assets and emerging currencies would likely be the focus this week. Two, the Yen is expected to slide further amid political uncertainty.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.


Daily Naira Exchange Rates; Thursday, May 6, 2021



Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

Naira depreciated further at the parallel market on Thursday as the local currency traded at N485 to a United States Dollar. The Nigerian Naira exchanged at N676 to a British Pound and N585 to a Euro as shown below.

Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
06/05/2021 480/485 665/676 575/585 62/69 395/405 292/320

Bureau De Change Naira Rates

















Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

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CBN Extends N5/$ Incentive Period to Boost Dollar Inflow



Godwin Emefiele - Investors King

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has extended the N5 per US Dollar incentive on forex remittance indefinitely to boost liquidity and further deepen economic recovery.

The initiative was scheduled to end on May 8. It was introduced to encourage recipients of dollars to use formal banking channels and help the central bank capture such inflows to boost the stability of the local currency, which has been under pressure after oil prices plunged last year.

“We hereby announce the continuation of the scheme until further notice,” the regulator said in a statement on its website on Thursday.

The naira has been devalued three times since last year after a sharp drop in oil earnings, which accounts for 90% of foreign-exchange inflows, and remittances from workers abroad led to a dollar crunch in the West African nation, which produces the most crude in Africa. The local unit traded for 410.31 on the investors and exporters window, also called Nafex, as of 8:51 a.m. in Lagos.

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US Dollar

Dollar Falls as Risk Appetite Improves, Sterling Dips on BoE



US Dollar -

The dollar dropped to its lowest point in three days on Thursday as global market risk appetite improved, while sterling zig-zagged after the Bank of England slowed the pace of its bond-buying, but left interest rates unchanged.

Fewer Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits last week, data showed, as COVID-19 vaccination efforts and massive amounts of government stimulus led to a further reopening of the economy.

While the U.S. economy has been gaining steam, Federal Reserve speakers on Wednesday downplayed the risks of higher inflation.

Those statements reinforced “the lower-for-longer mentality with regards to interest rates,” making the greenback less appealing, said Neil Jones, head of FX sales at Mizuho.

The safehaven U.S. dollar was last down 0.31% at 91.977 against a basket of peer currencies.

“What we’ve seen early in New York is a little bit of back-and-forth gyrations, just because of the Bank of England meeting,” said Erik Bregar, director and head of FX strategy at the Exchange Bank of Canada.

The Bank of England said it would slow the pace of its bond-buying as it sharply increased its forecast for Britain’s economic growth this year after its coronavirus slump, but it stressed it was not tightening monetary policy.

“They kept their QE target in place but they said they are going to reduce the weekly pace of purchases, but that’s not a signal and so sterling has kind of gone up and down and done nothing at the end of the day,” Bregar said.

The pound was last down 0.08% against the weaker dollar at $1.3900 .

The euro was up 0.47% versus the dollar at $1.2061 , and up 0.65% against the pound, at 86.88 pence per euro.

Investors were also paying attention to elections in Scotland that could herald a political showdown over a new independence referendum.

The Australian dollar fell sharply overnight when China said it would stop its economic dialogue with Australia, but the currency had recovered to trade close to flat on the day as European markets opened.

The Aussie was up 0.1% versus the U.S. dollar at 0.77515 at 1028 GMT, having hit as low of 0.7701 overnight.

The New Zealand dollar also dropped and was down 0.1% on the day.

“The announcements of the formal suspension of the economic dialogue between China and Australia should not have a lasting impact on markets given the already strained relationship between the two ahead of the event,” wrote ING strategists in a note to clients.

The Canadian dollar hit a three-and-a-half year high, helped by oil price gains and the Bank of Canada’s recent shift to more hawkish guidance.

In cryptocurrencies, ether traded around $3,500 after reaching a record high of $3,559.97 on Tuesday, skyrocketing nearly 800% this month.

Bitcoin declined 0.2% to $57,392.75.

The meme-based virtual currency Dogecoin soared on Wednesday to an all-time high, extending its 2021 rally to become the fourth-biggest digital coin.

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