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Oil Still Accounts for 92% of Nigeria’s Earnings — Investigation

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  • Oil Still Accounts for 92% of Nigeria’s Earnings

Despite the efforts of the Federal Government to diversify the economy away from oil to non-oil sector, receipts from oil and gas sector still account for a huge chunk of the country’s total exports’ earnings, an investigation has revealed.

An analysis of the foreign trade statistics obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed that out of the total export earnings of N3.1tn for the second quarter of this year, oil and gas accounted for N2.43tn, while the non-oil sector accounted for the balance of N670bn.

A breakdown of the export earnings showed that petroleum oil and oil obtained from bituminous minerals generated the sum of N2.42tn, representing 78.18 per cent.

This was followed by natural and liquefied gas with N412.49bn or 13.3 per cent, other petroleum gases with 1.16 per cent, and other liquefied petroleum gases and gaseous hydrocarbons, N19.63bn.

A further analysis of the report showed that the country earned N17.81bn from naphthalene; N16.59bn from propane; N13.52bn from cashew nuts; N12.51bn from medium petroleum oil; N10.29bn from butanes and N10.14bn from urea.

In the same vein, the sum of N9.62bn was received as export earnings from cigarettes; N9.41bn from electrical energy; N8.33bn from cocoa; N7.02bn from sesamum seeds and N4.16bn from kerosene jet fuel.

In terms of countries where these products were exported to, the report showed that India accounted for the highest amount with N519.7bn, followed by Spain, United States and Netherlands with N374.4bn, N317.09bn and N241.2bn, respectively.

France followed with export value of N224.88bn; Italy, N88.4bn; Indonesia, N107.49bn; Canada, N90.06bn; Togo, N158.14bn; and South Africa, N137.3bn.

Speaking with our correspondent in an interview on the sidelines of a workshop on revenue generation in Abuja, the Acting Chairman, Revenue Mobilization Allocation and Fiscal Commission, Shettima Abba-Gana, said the commission was putting in place strategies to enable the country to generate more revenue from alternative sources such as solid minerals, public-private partnerships, tourism and agriculture.

He said the decline in allocation from the federation account by over 30 per cent had made it imperative for the commission to assist states to increase their Internally Generated Revenue.

He said while some states had made efforts at increasing their IGR to a level up to the amount they were getting from federation account, others were yet to make such efforts.

He explained that there was a need for government at all levels to show serious commitment to providing the necessary and required enabling environment for the full exploitation of the potential of the agricultural (cultivation of commercially viable produce), solid minerals and tourism sectors.

Abba-Gana said, “We have a resilient economy that despite the drop in revenue by one third, things are still going on although with difficulty; and we are improving.

“Some states have now been able to raise the Internally Generated Revenue to a level that is enough to pay their salaries. And the others are also catching up. There is an increase in interest by the states to raise their IGR and to diversify.

“Some states are already generating the same amount that they receive from the federation account and we must commend those states.

“But what we want is that other states should also improve on their IGR and grasp the opportunities of the diversification programme in the areas of agriculture, solid minerals and tourism.”

He added, “Every state in Nigeria has solid minerals and what needs to be done now is to get them to create employment, economic growth and generate revenue.”

The Executive Director/Chief Executive Officer, Nigeria Export Promotion Council, Mr. Segun Awolowo, said if the country could effectively key into the zero-oil plan of the agency in taking advantage of the opportunities in the agricultural sector, there would not be any need to depend on oil revenue for survival.

Through the plan, he said the NEPC had identified 22 priority countries as markets for Nigerian products while 11 strategic products with high financial value had also been identified to replace oil.

These products were listed as palm oil, cashew, cocoa, soya beans, rubber, rice, petrochemical, leather, ginger, cotton, and Shea butter.

He said the volatility in the oil market had made it imperative for the government to look inwards, adding that Nigeria could no longer depend solely on oil revenue for the implementation of government’s programme.

For instance, the NEPC boss said between 2014 and 2016, the country recorded a total oil revenue shortfall of $40bn.

He said in 2014, the country earned $70bn from crude oil, adding that oil receipts dropped to $40bn and $30bn in 2015 and 2016, respectively.

He said as a result of the volatile nature of the oil market, the country could no longer depend on such commodity, hence the need to partner Nigerians in the Diaspora to diversify the economy.

He said, “In 2014, we had $70bn from oil; in 2015, it was $40bn; and you can see that we had a shortfall of $30bn.

“In 2016, it was about $30bn; and so we can see that the challenge is not on really the demand for foreign exchange but the supply of foreign exchange. We are targeting manufacturing and industry so that we can produce and export more.”

He expressed optimism that the plan could have achieved better results if all stakeholders had collaborated with the NEPC, noting that the ultimate goal of the agency was for Nigeria to survive in a world where it would no longer sell oil.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Brent Approaches $83 as US Crude Inventories Decline

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As global oil markets remain volatile, Brent crude oil prices edged closer to the $83 per barrel price level following reports of a decline in US crude inventories.

The uptick in prices comes amidst ongoing concerns about supply constraints and rising demand, painting a complex picture for energy markets worldwide.

The latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) revealed a notable decrease of 3.1 million barrels in nationwide crude stockpiles for the previous week.

Also, there was a drawdown observed at the critical hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, a key indicator for market analysts tracking US oil inventories.

Investors and traders have been closely monitoring these inventory reports, seeking clues about the supply-demand dynamics in the global oil market.

The decline in US crude inventories has added to the optimism surrounding oil prices, pushing Brent towards the $83 threshold.

The positive sentiment in oil markets is also fueled by anticipation surrounding the upcoming report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Market participants are eager to glean insights from the IEA’s assessment, which is expected to shed light on supply-demand balances for the second half of the year.

However, the recent rally in oil prices comes against the backdrop of lingering concerns about inflationary pressures in the United States.

Persistent inflation has raised questions about the strength of demand for commodities like oil, leading to some caution among investors.

Furthermore, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) face their own challenges in navigating the current market dynamics.

The group is grappling with the decision of whether to extend production cuts at their upcoming meeting on June 1. Questions about member compliance with existing output quotas add another layer of complexity to the discussion.

Analysts warn that while the recent decline in US crude inventories is a positive development for oil prices, uncertainties remain.

Vishnu Varathan, Asia head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Singapore, highlighted the potential for “fraught and tense OPEC+ dynamics” as member countries seek to balance their economic interests with market stability.

As oil markets await the IEA report and US inflation data, the path forward for oil prices remains uncertain. Investors will continue to monitor inventory levels, demand trends, and geopolitical developments to gauge the future trajectory of global oil markets.

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Oil Prices Dip on Sluggish Demand Signs and Fed’s Interest Rate Outlook

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Oil prices on Monday dipped as the U.S. Federal Reserve officials’ comments showed a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments.

The dip in prices reflects concerns over the outlook for global economic growth and its implications for energy consumption in the world’s largest economy.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, slipped by 7 cents or 0.1% to $82.72 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil stood at $78.21 per barrel, a 5 cents decline.

Auckland-based independent analyst Tina Teng highlighted that the oil market’s focus has shifted from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East to the broader world economic outlook.

Concerns arose as China’s producer price index (PPI) contracted in April, signaling continued sluggishness in business demand.

Similarly, recent U.S. economic data suggested a slowdown, further dampening market sentiment.

The discussions among Federal Reserve officials regarding the adequacy of current interest rates to stimulate inflation back to the desired 2% level added to market jitters.

While earlier in the week, concerns over supply disruptions stemming from the Israel-Gaza conflict had provided some support to oil prices, the attention has now turned to macroeconomic indicators.

Analysts anticipate that the U.S. central bank will maintain its policy rate at the current level for an extended period, bolstering the dollar.

A stronger dollar typically makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for investors holding other currencies, thus contributing to downward pressure on oil prices.

Furthermore, signs of weak demand added to the bearish sentiment in the oil market. ANZ analysts noted that U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories increased in the week preceding the start of the U.S. driving season, indicating subdued demand for fuel.

Refiners globally are grappling with declining profits for diesel, driven by increased supplies and lackluster economic activity.

Despite the prevailing challenges, expectations persist that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies, collectively known as OPEC+, may extend supply cuts into the second half of the year.

Iraq, the second-largest OPEC producer, expressed commitment to voluntary oil production cuts and emphasized cooperation with member countries to stabilize global oil markets.

However, Iraq’s suggestion that it had fulfilled its voluntary reductions and reluctance to agree to additional cuts proposed by OPEC+ members stirred speculation and uncertainty in the market.

ING analysts pointed out that Iraq’s ability to implement further cuts might be limited, given its previous shortfall in adhering to voluntary reductions.

Meanwhile, in the United States, the oil rig count declined to its lowest level since November, signaling a potential slowdown in domestic oil production.

As oil markets continue to grapple with a complex web of factors influencing supply and demand dynamics, investors and industry stakeholders remain vigilant, closely monitoring developments and adjusting their strategies accordingly in an ever-evolving landscape.

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Brent Crude Hovers Above $84 as Demand Rises in U.S. and China

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Brent crude oil continued its upward trajectory above $84 a barrel as demand in the United States and China, the two largest consumers of crude globally increased.

This surge in demand coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has bolstered oil markets, maintaining Brent crude’s resilience above $84 a barrel.

The latest data revealed a surge in demand, particularly in the U.S. where falling crude inventories coincided with higher refinery runs.

This trend indicates growing consumption patterns and a positive outlook for oil demand in the world’s largest economy.

In China, oil imports for April exceeded last year’s figures, driven by signs of improving trade activity, as exports and imports returned to growth after a previous contraction.

ANZ Research analysts highlighted the ongoing strength in demand from China, suggesting that this could keep commodity markets well supported in the near term.

The positive momentum in demand from these key economies has provided a significant boost to oil prices in recent trading sessions.

However, amidst these bullish indicators, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have added further support to oil markets. Reports of a Ukrainian drone attack setting fire to an oil refinery in Russia’s Kaluga region have heightened concerns about supply disruptions and escalated tensions in the region.

Also, ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip has fueled apprehensions of broader unrest, particularly given Iran’s support for Palestinian group Hamas.

Citi analysts emphasized the geopolitical risks facing the oil market, pointing to Israel’s actions in Rafah and growing tensions along its northern border. They cautioned that such risks could persist throughout the second quarter of 2024.

Despite the current bullish sentiment, analysts anticipate a moderation in oil prices as global demand growth appears to be moderating with Brent crude expected to average $86 a barrel in the second quarter and $74 in the third quarter.

The combination of robust demand from key economies like the U.S. and China, coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, continues to influence oil markets with Brent crude hovering above $84 a barrel.

As investors closely monitor developments in both demand dynamics and geopolitical events, the outlook for oil prices remains subject to ongoing market volatility and uncertainty.

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