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PwC: Nigeria’s Real GDP ’ll Recover Fully by 2019

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  • PwC: Nigeria’s Real GDP ’ll Recover Fully by 2019

Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)will attain full recovery in two years, with growth moving closer to its long-term trend of 6.7 per cent, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC Nigeria Limited) has projected.

The firm in its routine economic alert titled: “Nigeria’s Q2’17 GDP: From Recession to Recovery” released at the weekend, said latest GDP figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicate that Nigeria’s economy has exited recession.

PwC in the report by its Partner & Chief Economist Dr. Andrew S Nevin and Economist Adedayo Akinbiyi said in Q2 2017, Nigeria’s economy returned to positive growth as real GDP grew 0.5 per cent year-on-year(y/y) after successive declines for five quarters.

The report noted that this recovery was supported by a strong rebound in the oil sector (8.8 per cent of GDP), which expanded by 1.6 per cent y/y (–15.6 per cent y/y in Q1 2017).

The firm also said the non-oil sector on the other hand was boosted by a strengthening of the broader manufacturing sector, reflecting impact of improved foreign exchange liquidity.

“We note that the Q1 2017 real GDP growth was revised down to -0.9 per cent y/y (previous: -0.5 per cent y/y); a revision necessitated by lower than estimated oil production figures for March 2017, which dragged oil output lower,” PwC said.

The report also provided an analysed key insights from the latest GDP figures as it affects selected sectors and also made projections for the future.

It said, for instance, that agriculture decelerated on grain scarcity, expanding at a slower pace for the fifth consecutive quarter, recording a growth of 3.0 per cent y/y in Q2 2017 (Q1’1 7 : 3.4 per cent and Q2 2016: 4.5 per cent).

According to PwC, “This trend has been driven mainly by weaker output in the livestock and fishing sub-sectors, resulting from the scarcity of grains.

“In addition, we suspect the second quarter resurgence in insecurity in the North East might have negatively impacted crop production activities.

“This explains the trend in food inflation, which spiked to a seven-year high of 20.3 per cent y/y in July 2017.”

Similarly, manufacturing expanded at a slower pacefor the second consecutive quarter. Real growth increased by 0.6 per cent y/y in Q2 2017, relative to -3.3 per cent y/y a year earlier.

Relative to Q1 2017, however, growth slowed from 1.3 per cent y/y, a reflection of the performance of sector heavy weights, food, beverage and tobacco and cement, which accounted for 54.0 per cent of manufacturing GDP.

“Whilst the broader sector appears to have benefitted from the improved availability of forex, we suspect the price increases implemented across most consumer companies in the course of the year might have impacted volumes.

“Nonetheless, quarterly data (Q2 2017:1.0 per cent q/q vs Q1 2017: -5.0 per cent q/q) suggests the consumer recovery remains underway, albeit fragile,” the firm said.

PwC said its 2017 GDP forecast remained unchanged at 0.7 per cent y/y. “To attain this growth forecast, we estimate that real GDP will expand by 1.8 per cent y/y in Q3 2017 and 1.1 per cent y/y in Q4 2017,” it stated.

The firm said “This is plausible, given our expectation of a strong harvest season and sustained FX liquidity, which should support a broad-based economic recovery.”

It, however, added that risks to its forecast include a decline in oil price and production, and policy disruptions, which could hamper investment flows to the economy.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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