- ‘FG Can Achieve 2.19% GDP Growth This Year’
With the country out of economic recession, having posted a growth rate of 0.55 per cent in Gross Domestic Product for the second quarter, finance and economic experts have said that the Federal Government’s projected growth rate of 2.19 per cent at the end of this year may be achieved.
They, however, said that there was a need for the government to redouble its efforts by focusing on sectors with the capacity to stimulate growth and job creation.
The Federal Government in its Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, which was launched by President Muhammadu Buhari early this year, had projected a growth rate of 2.19 per cent by the end of this year.
In the report, the government had projected a growth rate of 5.03 per cent for the agricultural sector, while industry and services sector are expected to grow by 7.74 per cent and -1.26 per cent.
Speaking on the country’s growth trajectory, the experts called on the Federal Government to put in place adequate measures to consolidate on the growth rate.
Those that spoke are a former Managing Director, Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation, Mr. Ganiyu Ogunleye; the Director-General, Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Mr. Chijioke Ekechukwu; and the Registrar, Institute of Finance and Control of Nigeria, Mr. Godwin Eohoi.
Ekechukwu while reacting to the GDP growth rate said that the economy had shown a lot of improvement in the second quarter to stimulate recovery.
He said the performance of some key economic variables had shown that the Nigerian economy was showing huge signs of recovery.
For instance, he said the increase in the Purchaser Manager’s Index which had risen for four consecutive months, showed that manufacturing activities were bouncing back.
This, he noted, was as a result of improved access to foreign exchange and stability of the naira at all segments of the foreign exchange market.
He said, “On the economy getting out of recession, there are various indicators of the economy that are doing well.
“First of all, the Purchasing Managers Index that we have today is about 50. When it’s 50 index and above, it shows that the manufacturing sector is growing so well.
“Today, we are growing everyday up to 55 and 56 as the case may be. And with this happening, we just know that the economy is doing well.
“Inflation is also beginning to drop by small margin and an economy that is in recession will not just begin to record decline in inflation rate.
“There is stability in the foreign exchange market that we are all experiencing right now and before now, it was obviously not stable as prices of goods and services were changing everyday as a result of increase in the exchange rate but today it has been stabilised and it’s stabilising more and more because of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s intervention in the foreign exchange market.”
He called on the government to sustain agricultural production particularly in the area of the entire value chains.
Nigeria’s Big Oil-Refining Revamp Gets Off To A Slow Start
A year after shutting down all of its dilapidated refineries to figure out how to fix them, Nigeria still can’t say how much it will cost to do the work or where the money will come from.
Nigerian National Petroleum Corp. said it has finished the appraisal of its largest facility, but hasn’t completed the process at two others. Refining experts said the extended halt means the plants are at risk of rotting away and unlikely to restart on time.
“Things haven’t been looking good lately,” with Nigeria’s plants probably “completely out of action for some 18 months,” said Elitsa Georgieva, Executive Director at Citac, a consultant that specializes in African refining.
The dysfunction of its domestic refineries has long put Africa’s biggest oil producer in an ironic situation. It exports large volumes of crude to plants overseas, then pays a premium to import the fuels its customers produce.
Pledges to fix the facilities have been made and broken again and again over the years. For at least a decade, NNPC’s 445,000 barrels a day of refining capacity barely processed 20% of that amount.
The latest effort to fix the refineries was supposed to be different to the failed attempts that came before. The company had totally shut all three plants down by January 2020 to do a comprehensive appraisal, and set the ambitious target of having them all back up and running at 90% of capacity by 2023.
“The refineries have been deliberately shut down to allow for a thorough diagnosis,” said Kennie Obateru, an Abuja-based NNPC spokesman. “They can be fixed based on what the diagnosis reveals.”
The appraisal of the 210,000-barrel-a day Port Harcourt refinery has been completed and NNPC has called for bids for the necessary repairs, Obateru said. The company hasn’t determined how much the work will cost.
“It is when we close the bids, everything is analyzed and presented that we will know how much we need,” he said.
The diagnosis is underway at the 125,000-barrel-a-day Warri facility and should be complete before the end of the year, he said. After that, the study of the 110,000-barrel-a-day Kaduna plant will commence.
One year into the process, refining analysts are skeptical that all this work can be done by 2023.
“I don’t think anyone has a good understanding technically of what’s wrong with those refineries,” said Alan Gelder, vice president of refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie Ltd. “They’re probably corroding, which makes it a very difficult proposition.”
NNPC reaffirmed its deadline and said there’s no reason the refineries, which are at least 40 years old, can’t be restored to full operation.
“There are refineries that are over a hundred years old still running, so age is not necessarily an impediment,” Obateru said.
There are parallel efforts backed by private companies to add to Nigeria’s capacity. Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest person, is building a state-of-the-art 650,000 barrel-a-day refinery, which Citac estimates will start production in 2023.
Bringing NNPC’s Port Harcourt refinery to the same clean-fuel standards as Dangote’s modern plant would cost about $1.3 billion for the equipment, on top of whatever other repairs are required to get the facility running, Georgieva said.
NNPC is talking to oil-trading firms about $1 billion of prepayment deals that could finance the repairs at Port Harcourt, Reuters reported last week. Obateru declined to comment on the report, but said “I don’t envisage that we will have a problem getting people to invest.”
Food Inflation Hits Record High of 19.56 Percent in December 2020
Food Index, which measures prices of food items, grew by 19.56 percent in the month of December 2020 amid herdsmen attacks and flooding.
In the latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), increases were recorded on Bread and cereals, Potatoes, Yam and other
tubers, Meat, Fruits, Vegetable, Fish and Oils and fats.
On month on monthly basis, the food sub-index rose by 2.05 percent in December 2020, 0.01 percent from 2.04 percent recorded in November 2020.
“The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending December 2020 over the previous twelve-month average was 16.17 percent, 0.42 percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in November 2020 (15.75) percent” the report stated.
Headline inflation number increased by 15.75 percent in the month of December 2020, up from 14.89 percent.
The report noted that increases were recorded in all COICOP divisions that yielded the Headline index.
On a month-on-month basis, “the urban index rose by 1.65 percent in December 2020, same as the rate recorded in November 2020, while the rural index also rose by 1.58 percent in December 2020, up by 0.02 percent above the rate that was recorded in November 2020 (1.56 percent).”
Nigeria’s Inflation Rate Rises to 15.75 Percent in December
Inflation rate in Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria, rose at the fastest pace in several months in the last month of 2020, according to the latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation rate, increased by 15.75 percent year-on-year in December 2020, representing a 0.86 percent increment from the 14.89 percent attained in November.
On a monthly basis, headline inflation rose by 1.61 percent in the month of December, representing 0.01 percent increase from the 1,60 percent posted in the month of November.
Food gauge that measures prices of items in Africa’s largest economy increased by 19.56 percent in December from 18.30 percent in November.
NBS attributed the increase to the surge in prices of Bread and cereals, Potatoes, Yam and other tubers, Meat, Fruits, Vegetable, Fish and Oils and fats.
On a monthly basis, the food sub-index grew by 2.05 percent in December 2020, an increase of 0.01 percent points from 2.04 percent recorded in November 2020.
The more stable annual rate showed Food sub-index over the last 12 months increased by 0.42 percent points from 15.75 percent in November to 16.17 percent in December.
Herdsmen attacks, the rising cost of fuel, flooding and the wide exchange rate are some of the key factors impacting the cost of food items in Nigeria, especially in December when demands were the highest.
Still lack of enough fiscal buffer to cushion the effect of COVID-19 and ease forex scarcity also drag on raw materials necessary for the production of some import-dependent items.
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