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Why Nigerians Haven’t Felt Impact of Exit from Recession – NBS Boss

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  • Why Nigerians Haven’t Felt Impact of Exit from Recession – NBS Boss

The Statistician-General of the Federation and Chief Executive, National Bureau of Statistics, Dr. Yemi Kale, on Wednesday explained why Nigerians were not feeling the real impact of the positive economic growth rate on their lives.

Kale attributed the non-impact of the exit from recession on the citizens to the structure of the economy, which is still largely driven by oil.

He said while the economy might have recorded a growth rate of 0.55 per cent in overall Gross Domestic Product for the second quarter, not all the sectors did well in terms of productivity.

For instance, the NBS boss explained that out of the 42 economic activities that were used to measure the GDP growth rate, 21 recorded decline in productivity, while the rest performed better than they did in the first quarter.

He said the 21 of those economic activities that recorded slowdown in performance were those that ordinary Nigerians relate with on daily basis.

For instance, the NBS boss said while the manufacturing sector grew by 0.64 per cent in the second quarter, there were some segments of the sector that did not do well.

He gave some of them as manufacturing, which contracted by -10.88 per cent; motor vehicle and assembly, which contracted by -19.72 per cent; electrical and electronics, which contracted by -1.7 per cent; and chemical and pharmaceutical products, which declined by -0.98 per cent.

In addition, wood and wood products contracted by -2.09 per cent; pulp, paper and paper products, -1.85 per cent; and cement, -4.16 per cent.

Kale explained, “Recession is not about the price of your goods, not whether unemployment is going up or down, not whether you have quality education, it’s purely your Gross Domestic Product; your outputs of goods and services in the economy are going down.

“And the GDP is an accumulation of 46 different economic activities in Nigeria and the overall number, whether positive or negative, will determine whether you are in recession or out of recession.

“Now, within those 46 activities, some sectors will do very well and will be positive; some will do badly, some will do worse, and some will stay the same way they are.

“Depending on who you are in the society, what we publish is the aggregated total of everybody. So, even in that same report, you will see that 21 sectors were negative and there are other sectors that did well.”

He advised that with the economy being out of recession, there was a need for the government to work assiduously to ensure recovery by taking the growth rate to where it was before the decline in performance.

After this is done, he said the next stage would be to sustain the growth and take it beyond the rate of recovery.

The NBS boss explained that in as much as the GDP growth rate was still lower than the population growth rate, the real impact of such economic growth would not be felt significantly.

He said that its GDP report, which showed that Nigeria exited recession in the second quarter, was not doctored or politically motivated.

Kale explained that the NBS was an agency of government that was independent to carry out surveys and publish its findings based on international best practices.

The NBS boss faulted those making claims that the outcome of the report might have been influenced by political considerations, adding that none of the reports of the agency was influenced politically.

Kale said even at the risk of not being reappointed at the tail end of his tenure, economic reports that were not in favour of government activities were published by the agency, adding that if he did not doctor reports then, there was no basis to do so now.

He said, “In this administration, I am the one that published that we were in recession, and I am also the one that is saying we are now out of recession.

“I don’t think there is any inconsistency in what the NBS does in terms of politics. The recession announcement came two months to the renewal of my tenure. Now, if it was political, will I come and tell the government that wants to renew my tenure that inflation is in double digit?

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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