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Euro Heads for Third Day of Gains on Fed Talk Before ECB Meeting

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Euro currency
  • Euro Heads for Third Day of Gains on Fed Talk Before ECB Meeting

The euro traded stronger for a third day on the back of dovish rhetoric from Federal Reserve policy makers and bullish options trades before the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday.

The latest comments by Fed officials lowered the odds of another rate hike by the end of the year and provided no leeway to dollar bulls. The U.S. currency dropped a fifth day, as measured by the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, also due to concerns over the looming debt ceiling. A lack of dollar-supportive developments has seen real money names adding shorts this week, according to traders in Europe and London.

Investors also added upside euro exposure in options. As the market remained short-gamma above $1.20, risk reversals extended their recent gains, fully negating a bearish shift seen after reports that ECB President Mario Draghi might try to jawbone the currency lower at the meeting. Short-term bullish bets in the common currency hit their strongest level in a month.

One-day implied volatility in euro-dollar rose on Wednesday to incorporate ECB-decision risk, sending hedging costs to their most expensive in three months. Option pricing suggests that the common currency’s $1.1823-$1.2070 range since Aug. 29 will hold after Draghi’s press conference: break-even stands at around 100 dollar pips.

  • The euro stood 0.3% higher at 1.1944 as of 11:17 a.m. London, while BBDXY slipped by 0.1% following a 0.3% drop on Tuesday
  • The Canadian dollar was little changed at 1.2384 versus the greenback before a decision by the Bank of Canada
    • While only six out of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg see a rate increase, market pricing has it as more of a coin toss; as latest robust growth contrasts with inflation data that lies at the lower band of the BOC’s desired range, all options remain open
    • Leveraged and interbank accounts stand ready to fade any dip in the loonie should rates remain unchanged, as Governor Poloz is most likely to keep commentary hawkish and point to an October hike, said the traders, who asked not to be identified as they weren’t authorized to speak publicly
    • USD/CAD offers good through the announcement at 1.2500-50, while take-profit bids seen above 1.2200 and 1.2100
  • Antipodeans led losses in G-10 bloc, giving back some of their Tuesday gains
  • The yen rose to 108.45 high after a social media report about the size of an earthquake in North Korea, as such previous reports have indicated a nuclear bomb test; pair recovered sharply to 108.71 as the report seems to be erroneous
  • The pound hit a four-week high at 1.3048, on the back of a weak dollar, rather than on conviction of a sustainable move higher
    • Take-profit interest capped the upside with more now seen at 1.3060-70

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Naira’s Upsurge Strains Nigeria’s Foreign-Exchange Reserves

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New Naira notes

As the Nigerian Naira continued to rebound from its record low against its global counterparts, the nation’s foreign exchange reserves has been on the decline, according to the data published by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on its website.

CBN data showed liquid reserves have plummeted by 5.6% since March 18 to $31.7 billion as of April 12, the largest decline recorded over a similar period since April 2020.

The recent surge in the Naira follows a series of measures implemented by the Central Bank to liberalize the currency market and allow for a more flexible exchange rate system.

These measures included devaluing the Naira by 43% in January and implementing strategies to attract capital inflows while clearing the backlog of pent-up dollar demand.

Charles Robertson, the head of macro strategy at FIM Partners, acknowledged the Central Bank’s efforts to restore the Naira to a realistic exchange rate, suggesting that it aims to stimulate investment in the local currency and enhance liquidity in the foreign exchange market.

Despite the rapid depletion of foreign-exchange reserves, Nigeria still maintains a significant cushion, bolstered by a rally in oil prices and inflows from multilateral loans.

Gross reserves of approximately $32.6 billion provide coverage for about six months’ worth of imports, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The Central Bank’s disclosure last month that it had cleared a backlog of overdue dollar purchase agreements, estimated at $7 billion since the beginning of the year, indicates progress in addressing longstanding currency challenges.

However, uncertainties remain regarding the extent of dollar debt retained by the Central Bank as revealed by its financial statements late last year.

Furthermore, the decline in foreign-exchange reserves persists despite a surge in inflows into Nigeria’s capital markets, driven by interest rate hikes and increased attractiveness of local debt.

Foreign portfolio inflows exceeded $1 billion in February alone, contributing to a total of at least $2.3 billion received so far this year, according to central bank data.

Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the trajectory of Nigeria’s foreign-exchange reserves, anticipating stabilization or potential growth fueled by anticipated inflows from Afreximbank, the World Bank, and potential eurobond issuance.

Also, the resurgence of oil prices and the expected return of remittances through official channels offer prospects for replenishing reserves in the near future.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 17th, 2024

As of April 17th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,50 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

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New Naira notes

As of April 17th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,50 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,70 and sell it at N1,060 on Tuesday, April 16th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate improved when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

  • Buying Rate: N1,050
  • Selling Rate: N1,040

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Naira

Naira Appreciates to N1,136/$ Officially, N1,050/$ Parallel Market

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The Nigerian Naira appreciated to N1,136 against the United States Dollar at the official market and rose to N1,050 at the parallel market.

At the official foreign exchange market, data from the FMDQ Exchange revealed that the Naira strengthened by 6.1 percent or N69 from its previous rate of N1,205/$ recorded on Friday to N1,136/$ on Monday.

This surge underscores the effectiveness of recent foreign exchange directives implemented by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), aimed at stabilizing the Naira and bolstering liquidity in the market.

At the parallel market, the Naira appreciated to N1,050 against the Dollar, reflecting an improvement in the currency’s value in informal trading circles.

This resurgence has brought renewed hope to traders and businesses operating in the informal sector, as they anticipate further strengthening of the Naira in the coming days.

The improved exchange rate follows a series of strategic interventions by the CBN to address foreign exchange challenges and stabilize the Naira.

The positive momentum in the forex market has been further reinforced by a surge in total inflows into the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), which increased by 41.7 percent to $3.75 billion in March, compared to $2.64 billion in February.

Commenting on the recent developments, analysts at Afrinvest expressed optimism about the continued strengthening of the Naira, attributing it to the CBN’s intensified efforts to bolster liquidity in the market.

They anticipate further improvements in the exchange rate as the apex bank maintains its proactive stance on forex management.

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