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Currency Traders on Edge as ECB Meeting Looms

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  • Currency Traders on Edge as ECB Meeting Looms

Foreign exchange traders face an anxious wait to see if European Central Bank policymakers will on Thursday address a euro rally that has put the currency on track for the best year against the dollar in its history.

According to a Financial Times report, an improving eurozone economy and the prospect that the ECB will scale back a bond-buying plan first introduced in 2015 to ward off deflation, has catapulted the euro almost 13 per cent higher against the US currency so far this year.

The majority of economists expect Mario Draghi, the ECB president, and the rest of the governing council to delay announcing a timetable for cutting its monthly purchase of bonds when they gather this week.

However, traders and investors in the $5.1tn daily currency market will be intensely focused on whether officials voice any anxiety about an appreciation in the common currency that threatens the competitiveness of eurozone exporters and exerts downward pressure on inflation.

Draghi has to talk about the euro, said Thanos Vamvakidis, a senior foreign exchange strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “They’re already below their [inflation] target, they have to acknowledge there are further downside risks to their inflation outlook because of the strong euro.”

Headline inflation was running at a 1.5 per cent pace in July, shy of the ECB’s target of near 2 per cent. Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy prices, came in at 1.2 per cent. The minutes of the July meeting of ECB officials revealed some unease with the vigour of the euro, which has also climbed 7 per cent against sterling and 6 per cent versus the Japanese yen in 2017.

The sensitivity of the foreign-exchange market to Draghi’s pronouncements was underlined in late August when his decision not to focus on monetary policy — and the currency — in a speech at a gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, was taken as a signal to buy the euro which last week hit the $1.20 level for the first time since early 2015.

A stellar rally for the single currency is a sharp contrast to the mood at the start of the year, when fears that the populist Marine Le Pen might capture the French presidency had some forecasting the euro would fall to parity against the dollar.

Indeed on Friday, Ewald Nowotny, a member of the governing council, cautioned against over dramatising the appreciation of the euro, which traded at close to the $1.40 mark in 2014.

However, even if Draghi seeks to temper the euro’s strength this week, some are sceptical it will have a lasting effect should a strengthening eurozone economy persuade investors to allocate more capital to the region.

“ECB verbal rhetoric may cause a correction but is unlikely to be enough to derail euro strength,” noted George Saravelos, a foreign-exchange strategist at Deutsche Bank.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Forex

BDC Operators Blame Forex Shortage for Continued Naira Depreciation

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Bureau Of Engraving And Printing Prints New Anti-Counterfeit 100 Dollar Bills

Bureau De Change (BDC) operators in Nigeria have said that the value of Naira has continued to depreciate in the parallel market because of the scarcity of forex in the sector as major sources become drastically reduced.

This was disclosed by the Chairman of the Association of Bureau De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON), Aminu Gwadabe.

Gwadabe said sources of forex to that segment of the forex market have been severely impacted by the recent policies of the Central Bank of Nigeria.

He averred that members of the Association no longer get as much forex from relevant sources such as exports and external remittances and now rely on irregular intervention from the apex bank.

Blaming the International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs), Gwadabe said the liberalisation of the market has prevented supply inflow which is being reduced and has made it difficult for BDCs.

According to him, IMT0s have ambushed the international remittance payment as most remittance payment now go their direction.

He added that non-oil exports, which is another source of FX for BDCs have also been reduced and the CBN intervention is not regular.

In the past, he noted that BDCs used to do up to $40k weekly but now, it is not more than $20k.

Gwadabe declared that the Naira will continue to depreciate in the parallel market except there is regular intervention by the CBN.

Describing the BDCs as the language of the invisible players in the retail end of the market, he stated that any sentiment of scarcity by buyers as well as sellers would affect the value of the Naira.

Recall that the Naira fell to N1,700/$ in the parallel market in September, its lowest in seven months but recovered marginally on the 2nd of October. However, the official market section saw a wide depreciation of up to 8%.

The CBN in the past one year has sought to regulate the IMTOs and enable them to play a more prominent role in attracting foreign exchange into official channels from international sources.

In 2023, Nigeria received around $19.5 billion- around 35% of total remittances to Africa according to the World Bank.

However, Taiwo Oyedele, the Chairman of the Presidential Committee on fiscal policy and tax reforms stated that only about 10% of the nearly $20 billion remittance entered the official forex exchange market as the parallel market swallowed up almost 90% of remittance inflows.

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Naira

Naira Strengthens Against Dollar at Official, Black Market in Final Session

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Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King

The Naira continued to strong-arm the US Dollar as it made a 1.7 percent gain in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, October 4 as the local currency gained a value of N28.05 to close the closing session at N1,631.21/$1 at the official window.

According to data obtained from the FMDQ Securities Exchange, compared to N1,659.26/$1 published in the preceding session on Thursday.

Turnover published on the FMDQ Group website stood at $239.36 million indicating that the session’s turnover slid by 46.9 percent, indicating that there was a decrease of $211.03 million compared to $450.39 million published the previous day.

Equally, the domestic currency also witnessed gains against the British currency and the Euro in the week’s final session.

On the Pound Sterling, the local currency made an appreciation of N24.21 to wrap the session at N2,175.44/£1 from N2,199.65/£1 that it sold at the previous session.

Also, against the Euro, the Nigerian currency closed at N1,830.11/€1 versus N1,830.89/€1, indicating a 78 Kobo appreciation.

In the black market, the Naira also gained on the American currency by N5.23 to close at N1,676.56 per Dollar from N1,681.79.

It also made the same movement against the British Pound as it rose by N17.10 to N2,153.83 against N2,170.93 and trading against the Euro, the local currency added N6.93 to N1,852.10 versus N1,859.03.

It equally recorded a positive end result against the Canadian Dollar as it gained N10.52 to end the last session at N1,202.18 from Wednesday’s N1,212.72.

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Naira

Naira Gains on Dollar at Official Market on Improved Supply, Dips at Black Market

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The Naira appreciated against the US Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Thursday, October 3, as the local currency sold for N1,659.26/$1.

The domestic currency recorded a 0.6 percent or N9.89 again against the greenback compared to the N1,669.15/$1 it was valued at the previous session on Wednesday.

This occurred as turnover published on the FMDQ Group website stood at $450.39 million indicating that the session’s turnover surged by 155.3 percent, indicating that there was an increase of $273.94 million compared to $176.45 million that was published the day before.

This development indicates that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) may have made fresh interventions in the market after it only sold to Bureau de Change (BDC) operators in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, the domestic currency also witnessed losses against the British Pound Sterling and the Euro in the week’s penultimate session.

On the Pound Sterling, the local currency made a loss of N56.00 to wrap the session at N2,199.65/£1 from N2,143.65/£1 that it sold at the previous session and against the Euro, the Nigerian currency closed at N1,830.89/€1 versus N1,789.71/€1, indicating an N41.18 depreciation.

In the black market, the Naira plunged by N25.75 to close at N1,681.79 per Dollar from N1,656.04 and extended this outcome against the British Pound as it fell by N12.70 to N2,170.93 against N2,158.23.

Trading against the Euro, the local currency dropped N14.80 to N1,859.03 versus N1,844.23

However, it was a positive outcome against the Canadian Dollar as it gained N7.28 to end the penultimate session at N1,212.72 from Wednesday’s N1,220.00.

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