Connect with us

Finance

Nigeria’s External Debt May Hit N6.31tn in 2018

Published

on

U.S dollar - Investors King
  • Nigeria’s External Debt May Hit N6.31tn in 2018

Following the move by the federal government to issue foreign bonds to refinance maturing naira-denominated treasury bills, Nigeria’s external debt has been estimated to increase by about 46per cent to N6.31 trillion ($20.6 billion) by the end of 2018.

PwC, a professional services firm stated this in a report in which it assessed the development.

The Federal Executive Council (FEC) recently approved a plan to issue $3 billion worth of foreign bonds of up to three years’ maturity to refinance maturing naira-denominated treasury bills.

This decision was in line with the federal government’s debt management strategy to rebalance its debt portfolio for domestic and foreign debt, from the current 69%:31% to a targeted 60%:40%.

Although the plan was yet to be approved by the National Assembly, PwC estimated that if implemented, it would have a modest impact on broad debt sustainability indicators.

“Although timelines are not clear, we suspect issuance is unlikely to be earlier than 2018, given the extensive preparatory work required in issuing international sovereign bonds.

“Consequently, we assume the impact on public debt ratios would become evident as from 2018. We estimate that Nigeria’s stock of treasury bills would be around NGN3.8 trillion by end-2017.

“Refinancing $3 billion worth of maturing bills with dollar borrowing would result in a reduction in this stock by as much as nine per cent. External debt on the other hand would increase by about 46 per cent to N6.31 trillion ($20.6 billion) by end-2018,” it added.

Under this scenario, the firm projected that debt to GDP would rise by three percentage points, from an estimated 16 per cent in 2017 to 19 per cent in 2018. Nonetheless, it stated that the impact on the cost of debt was likely to be muted.

The Debt Management Office (DMO) reports the weighted-average interest rate on debt which takes into account the proportion of instruments issued.

Treasury bills account for 16 per cent of total federal government debt, and the portion to be refinanced is about one-quarter of treasury bill maturities in 2018.

“Thus, we estimate the weighted average interest rate could increase to 13 per cent, in 2018 from an estimated 12 per cent in 2017 and 11 per cent in 2015.

“Our analysis of key debt sustainability indicators suggests that the probability of debt distress at this time is low.

“We define debt distress as a scenario which requires a country to: incur substantial arrears on external debt; receive debt relief; and receive non-concessional balance of payments support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF),” the report added.

Among the various indicators based on the level of debt stock, external debt to exports is cited as the most useful, as exports provide the basis for debt repayments.

Furthermore, PwC estimated that Nigeria’s external debt to exports could rise by seven percentage points to 34 per cent in 2018.

This, they firm however said was well below the threshold of 100 per cent prescribed by the International Monetary Fund and the peak of 104 per cent recorded during Nigeria’s debt crisis in 2004.

But devaluation in the currency would be a key risk to external debt sustainability, they stated.

“However, this risk is somewhat offset by the natural hedge provided by the high foreign currency composition of government revenues.

“Under a scenario of an export shock similar to the episode recorded in 2015, we assume a 44 per cent decline in exports in 2018. Following this, we estimate external debt to exports will rise sharply to 71 per cent, up from 27 per cent in 2017.

“While Nigeria’s debt vulnerability worsens under this scenario, it still remains below the 100 per cent threshold level – at this level, Nigeria’s external debt would need to reach $60.2 billion,” the report added.

“While Nigeria’s near term public debt ratios remain relatively comfortable, we are mindful of the trend in debt service ratios. We estimate that debt service to revenue ratio is likely to remain elevated at 50 per cent in 2018, breaching the recommended threshold of 25 per cent.

“This represents the fourth consecutive increase since 2015. Given the outlook for lower oil revenues, we expect the government to do more in mobilising non-oil revenues to bridge the fiscal deficit, to meet the objective of reducing the “crowding out” impact of domestic borrowing.

“There is room for tax mobilisation as Nigeria’s non-oil tax to GDP at 2.3 per cent in 2016 remains well below the average of 16 per cent among sub-Saharan Africa countries.

“Similarly, the policy framework for investment incentives should be periodically assessed against intended policy objectives and revenue forgone. This would ensure that the investment incentive framework is targeted, cost effective and sustainable,” it added.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Continue Reading
Comments

Banking Sector

UBA America Strengthens Commercial Diplomacy, Hosts Diplomats, Others at World Bank Summit

Published

on

UBA

UBA America, the United States subsidiary of United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc hosted diplomats, government officials and business leaders to a networking reception in partnership with the esteemed Business Council for International Understanding (BCIU) and the U.S. Department of States in Washington DC on Monday .

The event which was held on the sidelines of the ongoing IMF World Bank Spring Meetings was organised by the BCIU and US Department of State to enhance collaboration and fortify commercial diplomacy among nations, institutions and individuals.

Speaking during the event, UBA’s Group Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, Oliver Alawuba, noted that the bank’s co-hosting of the event via its American subsidiary, underscores its commitment towards cultivating robust relationships within the development communities in the United States.

He said, “As a distinguished member of BCIU, a non-profit organisation providing customised commercial diplomacy services, UBA Group and UBA America share BCIU’s vision of actively pursuing strategic opportunities, contributing to global economic cooperation, deepening of economic diplomacy, facilitating ideas, forging partnerships, and adding value for all stakeholders.”.

“Our resolve to co-host this Networking Reception symbolises our dedication to fostering inclusive economic growth and partnership across borders. By leveraging platforms like this, we can collectively address shared challenges and seize opportunities for sustainable development,” he stated further.

BCIU is a non-profit Association comprising of policy experts, strategic advisors, and trade educators, and offers bespoke commercial diplomacy services to the world’s governments and leading organisations, from Fortune 100 companies to global investors and multilateral institutions.

Only last year, the CEO UBA America, Sola Yomi-Ajayi, was appointed to the Board of BCIU, where she collaborates with fellow board members to ensure the organisation operates in alignment with its by-laws and New York 501(c)3 non-profit legislation.

Yomi-Ajayi has been committed to nurturing long-term organisational growth and sustainability, thereby reinforcing the bond between UBA America, BCIU, and the broader international community.

UBA America is the United States subsidiary of United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc, one of Africa’s leading financial institutions with presence in 20 African countries, as well as in the United Kingdom, France, and the United Arab Emirates. UBA America serves as a vital link between Africa and the global financial markets, offering a range of banking services tailored to meet the needs of individuals, businesses, and institutions.

As the only sub-Saharan African bank with an operational banking license in the U.S., UBA America is uniquely positioned to provide corporate banking services to North American institutions doing business with or in Africa.

UBA America delivers treasury, trade finance, and correspondent banking solutions to sovereign and central banks, financial institutions, SMEs, foundations, and multilateral and development organizations. Leveraging its knowledge, capacity, and unique position as part of an international banking group, the Bank seeks to provide exceptional value to our customers around the world.

Continue Reading

Banking Sector

Ecobank Pays Off $500 Million Eurobond

Published

on

Ecobank - Investors King

Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI) has announced the successful repayment of its $500 million Eurobond.

The Eurobond, issued in April 2019 with a coupon rate of 9.5%, matured on April 18, 2024, and was listed on the London Stock Exchange.

The repayment, totaling $524 million inclusive of principal and interest, underscores Ecobank’s commitment to financial prudence and investor confidence.

The bond garnered substantial support from a diverse group of global investors, including development banks, FMO, and Proparco, serving as anchor investors.

Mr. Ayo Adepoju, Ecobank’s Group CFO, emphasized the significance of the inaugural bond in broadening the institution’s investor base and enhancing its visibility in global capital markets.

Despite challenges in the operating environment, such as disruptions in the global supply chain and financial markets, Ecobank has demonstrated resilience through robust liquidity, a solid balance sheet, and effective leadership.

This repayment marks Ecobank’s commitment to fulfilling its financial obligations and maintaining strong relationships with investors.

While this Eurobond repayment closes a significant chapter, it also reflects Ecobank’s ongoing efforts to navigate challenges and sustain its position as a leading financial institution in Africa.

As Ecobank clears this debt, it reinforces its reputation for financial stability and prudent management, setting a positive trajectory for future growth and continued success in the dynamic global financial landscape.

Continue Reading

Finance

SEC to Guard Against Illicit Funds Influx Amid Banking Recapitalisation

Published

on

Securities and Exchange Commission

In response to the recent banking recapitalization exercise announced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has reiterated its commitment to safeguarding the integrity of the capital market against the influx of illicit funds.

This announcement came during a symposium organized by the Association of Capital Market Academics of Nigeria, where the Executive Director (Operations) of SEC, Dayo Obisan, addressed stakeholders on the implications of the banking sector recapitalization for the Nigerian capital market.

Obisan expressed the commission’s determination to collaborate with stakeholders to prevent the entry of laundered funds into the capital market.

He stressed the need for fund verification exercises to ensure transparency and accountability in capital inflows.

While acknowledging that fund verification is not typically within SEC’s purview, Obisan stated the commission’s willingness to collaborate with other regulators to prevent the entry of illicit funds into the market.

He said it is important to engage institutions such as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU) in verifying the legitimacy of funds entering the market.

Obisan also announced regulatory engagements aimed at enhancing the quality of filings and ensuring compliance with anti-money laundering regulations. These engagements seek to streamline the application process and mitigate the risk of illicit fund inflows from the onset.

Meanwhile, the President of the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers, Oluwole Adeosun, maintained that the capital market can support the fresh capitalisation exercise.

He said, “The market is able and has expanded in the last ten years to be able to withstand any challenges with this capital raising exercise. It is important to know that investors have started to position themselves in the stocks of Tier 1 banks with the announcement of the planned recapitalisation last year.”

Adeosun also called on the banks to consider other options beyond the right issues, as had been seen in recent days in the sector, given the size of the funds needed to be raised as well as to bring in a fresh set of investors into the market.

“There should be more than a rights issue. We believe that some of them should go by private offer and public offer because the capital is huge so that we can bring in more shareholders into the market. We believe it is another opportunity for Gen Zs and millennial investors to come into the market.

Continue Reading
Advertisement




Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending