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Gasoline Extends Gains, Oil Slips as Harvey Set for Return Hit

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  • Gasoline Extends Gains, Oil Slips as Harvey Set for Return Hit

Gasoline rose for a seventh session while crude fell as traders braced for prolonged refinery and pipeline outages before a second hit on Texas from Tropical Storm Harvey.

Motor fuel prices advanced as much as 3.3 percent in New York, on its longest run of gains in a year, while U.S. crude extended losses from the lowest close in five weeks. Harvey drifted into the Gulf of Mexico after making landfall Friday and is set to regain strength before crashing ashore Wednesday on the Texas-Louisiana border. Motiva Enterprises LLC’s Port Arthur refinery, the nation’s biggest, is said to be shutting because of severe flooding.

Oil in New York has lost almost 8 percent this month as investors weigh rising U.S. supply against production cuts from some members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies. Harvey, the strongest storm to hit the nation since 2004, has halted about 20 percent of America’s refining capacity, damping crude demand in the world’s biggest user.

“There’s no surprise that we’re seeing a reaction in the gasoline market given refiners are out of action,” said Michael McCarthy, a chief strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney. “It’s less disruptive to oil because the geographic spread of operations is much broader, and there is also the huge stockpiles.”

Gasoline for September delivery, which expires Thursday, climbed as much as 5.89 cents to $1.8422 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices added 4.2 percent to close at $1.7833 on Tuesday, the highest close in more than two years. The more-active October contract rose 2.65 cents to $1.6284 at 1:21 p.m. in Hong Kong.

West Texas Intermediate for October delivery dropped 11 cents to $46.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after losing 13 cents to $46.44 Tuesday, the lowest close since July 24. Brent for October settlement, which expires Thursday, slid 21 cents to $51.79 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The global benchmark traded at a premium of $5.47 to WTI.

“Global growth and oil demand has been favorable for oil prices since the start of the second half of 2017, and the storm should only introduce a brief period of weakness,” said Barnabas Gan, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore.

Motiva’s Port Arthur refinery has a capacity to process 605,000 barrels of oil a day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Valero Energy Corp. is also said to be shutting its plant in the same area as flooding impacts the operation, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Oil-market news:

  • U.S. crude stockpiles dropped by 5.78 million barrels last week, the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute reported Tuesday, according to people familiar with the data.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Rise in Asian Trade as Supply Concerns Heighten Amid Russian Attacks

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Oil

Oil prices surged on Monday during the Asian trading session as concerns over global supply intensified amidst ongoing attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, climbed by 47 cents to $85.81 a barrel while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by 49 cents to $81.53 a barrel.

The market’s bullish sentiment was largely influenced by recent attacks on Russian refineries, which added $2-$3 per barrel of risk premium to crude last week.

These attacks persisted over the weekend, further heightening concerns about supply disruptions.

One of the strikes ignited a brief fire at the Slavyansk refinery in Kasnodar on Saturday. This refinery processes approximately 8.5 million metric tons of crude oil annually, equating to 170,000 barrels per day.

Consequently, a Reuters analysis revealed that these attacks have idled around 7% of Russian refining capacity in the first quarter of the year.

The impacted refining complexes play a crucial role in processing and exporting crude varieties to various markets, including China and India.

The escalating tensions in the Middle East also contributed to market unease. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed plans to push into Gaza’s Rafah enclave, disregarding pressure from Israel’s allies.

This move raised concerns about regional stability, amplifying geopolitical risks in the oil market.

Investors are closely monitoring the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting scheduled to conclude on Wednesday.

The Fed’s decision regarding interest rates could provide further clarity on market direction, potentially impacting oil prices in the near term.

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Commodities

Commodity Trading Industry Hits $100 Billion Profit, Second-Best Year on Record

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The global commodities market has reported $100 billion in profits despite facing challenges and disruptions, making its second-best year ever. 

According to analysis from consultancy firm Oliver Wyman LLC, while earnings have dipped slightly from the record-breaking levels of 2022, this year’s profits easily surpass previous highlights, including those seen during the global financial crisis of 2008-2009.

Consultant Adam Perkins attributes this success to favorable margins driven by ongoing supply-demand dynamics, despite the volatility seen in various sectors.

While specific financial results for many players within the industry are yet to be made public, the report indicates that major independent trading houses are expected to show an average drop of over 30% from the record levels of 2022.

However, disruptions in supply chains and shortages of diesel and fuel oil have somewhat offset the decline in volatility related to Russian crude oil.

These profits have enabled commodity trading firms to bolster their positions as key providers of energy, metals, and food resources on a global scale.

With significant investments in oil refineries, storage facilities, power plants, and acquisitions of other trading companies, these firms are solidifying their roles in shaping global supply chains.

Moreover, the windfall profits have led to executives and partners within these firms becoming multi-millionaires, facilitating a generational shift in leadership as seasoned traders retire.

Despite the pressure to uphold legacies and navigate increased scrutiny, the influx of new leadership presents opportunities for innovation and growth within the commodity trading sector.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Surge as IEA Boosts Demand Forecasts and Trims Non-OPEC Supply Projections

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Crude Oil

Oil prices skyrocketed following the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) adjustments to its demand and supply forecasts.

The IEA’s latest report, released Thursday, sent shockwaves through financial markets as it unveiled a robust upward revision in global demand estimates while simultaneously trimming projections for non-OPEC oil supply.

With unparalleled confidence, the IEA bolstered first-quarter global demand growth forecasts, citing improved outlooks in the United States and heightened bunkering demand due to extended voyages circumventing geopolitical hotspots.

This unexpected surge in demand projections has injected a newfound sense of optimism into an industry grappling with uncertainties amid a shifting geopolitical landscape.

Moreover, the IEA’s decision to slash its projections for non-OPEC supply further fueled market exuberance.

Factoring in recent cuts from the OPEC+ coalition and reduced output from non-OPEC nations, the agency’s revised supply forecast sent a clear signal to investors: the tide is turning in favor of tightening supply dynamics.

This monumental shift in market sentiment was reflected in Brent crude futures, which surged by 0.86% to $84.75 a barrel, marking a significant milestone in the oil market’s recovery.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude followed suit, climbing 1.04% to $80.55 a barrel, as traders reacted swiftly to the IEA’s bullish outlook.

As the energy landscape undergoes a paradigm shift, industry experts anticipate a sustained rally in oil prices, driven by robust demand growth and tightening supply dynamics.

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