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Forex Monthly Demand Jumps to N588b -CBN

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Godwin Emefiele CBN - Investors King
  • Forex Monthly Demand Jumps to N588b -CBN

The demand for foreign exchange (forex) has continued to rise despite the drop in forex earnings by the Federal Government, it was learnt yesterday.

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Godwin Emefiele said yesterday that the average monthly import bill rose from N12.4 billion in 2005 to N588.1 billion in the first five months of this year.

Speaking in Lagos at the 2017 Annual General Meeting of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), Emefiele said the import bill rose despite the significant reduction in inflow of dollars, caused by the sharp drop in oil prices.

He said the CBN witnessed a significant decline in forex inflow and reserves from about $42.8 billion in January 2014 to about $23.7 billion in October 2016 before recovering to slightly over $30 billion today.

Acccording to him, in terms of inflow, the bank’s forex earnings fell from as high as $3.2 billion monthly sometime in 2013 to as low as $580 million per month at some point.

Although Emefiele did not give reasons for the rise in the import bill, it may not be unconnected with Nigerians’ love for imported goods or increased production in the manufacturing sector.

“Despite these outcomes, the demand for forex has risen significantly. For example, in 2005 when we had oil prices at about $50 per barrel for an extended period of time, our monthly average import bill was N12.4 billion. In stark contrast, the average import bill in the first five months of 2017 is about N588.1 billion per month,” he said.

He said the combined effects of the aforementioned exogenous shocks, especially the fall in oil prices and the capital flow reversals due to monetary policy normalisation in the United States, compelled several depreciations of the Dollar-Naira Exchange Rate.

He said the negative effect of high inflation and exchange rate volatility have prompted the CBN to tackle both developments head-on.

He noted that high inflation hinders economic growth and is not only harmful to growth in the long run, it discourages saving and inhibits planning and investment as people become more skeptical on the direction of prices of goods and services.

Emefiele, who spoke on the theme: “The dilemma of monetary policy during a recession: Potential Options for Nigeria”, said achieving low inflation is a major priority of the CBN, adding that any decision it takes on the economy usually has certain repercussions.

He said the naira depreciated from $1/N155 in June 2014 to as high as over $1/N500 in the parallel market around February 2017 adding that the country is also dealing with the perennial problem of high interest rates in Nigeria. The naira exchange rate against the dollar has however improved after the CBN introduced the Investors & Exporters forex window.

“If we had chosen to reduce interest rates and increase money supply, we would have further deepened the recession, while assuring foreign investment outflows which would worsen foreign exchange reserves accretion,” he said.

He said faced with the need to tackle high inflation, the correct monetary policy would be to tighten money supply either by increasing the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) of banks, mopping up money through increased Open Market Operations, or raising the Liquidity Ratio of Banks.

However, while doing any or a combination of these would help moderate inflationary pressure, it could ensure that interest rates remain high and may even be inimical to restoring economic growth in the short term.

However, if the CBN were to abandon its pursuit of low inflation and decide to implement expansionary Monetary Policy to engender rapid economic growth, the outcome for inflation would be much worse. He said expansionary monetary policy would require reducing the CRR and Liquidity Ratios and increasing money supply through purchase of Bonds and Treasury Bills.

The CBN has maintained a tight monetary policy to contain rising inflation and encourage forex inflow into the country.

“Although we made some progress from these initial policies, the pressure on the forex markets continued to swell. With the rate at N197/$1 and the premium vis-a-vis the unstructured markets widening, there were indications that autonomous forex suppliers were hesitant as they perceived the pricing to be inappropriate,” the CBN boss said.

He said the introduction of a more flexible exchange rate regime with a view to eliminating forex market pressure, buoy autonomous forex inflows, and preserve the forex reserves. Also, to support small-scale users and encourage increased forex inflow from diaspora remittances, the Bank undertook the licensing of International Money Transfer Organisations (IMTOs).

“More importantly, however, in order to further extricate the lingering bottlenecks, increase transparency and boost supply in the forex market, the CBN, in April 2017 introduced the special Investors’ and Exporters’ (I&E) FX Window. The establishment of that special (I&E) window has tremendously facilitated market driven transactions and has catered for the FX needs of investors and exporters. As a result, we have seen an appreciably improved FX supply due to the introduction of the window,” Emefiele said, adding that $4.7 billion of foreign exchange inflow had been recorded through this window since April 2017.

He said he was unaware of the seeming unpopularity of some decisions taken by the CBN.

Developments in the international oil market exposed the fundamental vulnerabilities of oil exporting countries, such as Nigeria, as commodity exporting countries generally endured unfavorable conditions.

“We saw the average price of crude oil fall by nearly 60 percent from $114 per barrel in June 2014 to $28 per barrel in February 2016, before recovering to about $50 per barrel today. These resulted in a dwindling of our overall economic fortunes, as net inflows tapered and pressures escalated in critical financial markets,” he said.

He said available data indicated that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 1.6 per cent in 2016 compared with a growth of 6.2 per cent in 2014, and 2.8 per cent in 2015. Also, within this period, the economy, he said, witnessed sharp increases in inflation rate, reflecting supply constraints, exchange rate depreciation, and adjustments to energy prices.

Emefiele said inflation rate rose persistently from 9.2 per cent in July 2014 to 18.7 per cent in January 2017.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Finance

Presidential Committee to Exempt 95% of Informal Sector from Taxes

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tax relief

The Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee (PFPTRC) has unveiled plans to exempt a significant portion of the informal sector from taxation.

Chaired by Taiwo Oyedele, the committee aims to alleviate the burden of multiple taxation on small businesses and low-income individuals while fostering economic growth.

The announcement came following the close-out retreat of the PFPTRC in Abuja, where Oyedele addressed reporters over the weekend.

He said the committee is committed to easing the tax burden, particularly for those operating within the informal sector that constitutes a substantial portion of Nigeria’s economy.

Under the proposed reforms, approximately 95% of the informal sector would be granted tax exemptions, sparing them from obligations such as income tax and value-added tax (VAT).

Oyedele stressed the importance of supporting individuals in the informal sector and recognizing their efforts to earn a legitimate living and their contribution to economic development.

The decision was informed by extensive deliberations and data analysis with the committee advocating for a fairer and more equitable tax system.

Oyedele highlighted that individuals earning up to N25 million annually would be exempted from various taxes, aligning with the committee’s commitment to relieving financial pressure on small businesses and low-income earners.

Moreover, the committee emphasized the need for tax reforms to address the prevailing issue of multiple taxation, which disproportionately affects small businesses and the vulnerable population.

By exempting the majority of the informal sector from taxation, the committee aims to stimulate economic growth and promote entrepreneurship.

The proposal for tax reforms is expected to be submitted to the National Assembly by the third quarter of this year, following consultations with the private sector and internal approvals.

The reforms encompass a broad range of measures, including executive orders, regulations, and constitutional amendments, aimed at creating a more conducive environment for business and investment.

In addition to tax exemptions, the committee plans to introduce executive orders and regulations to streamline tax processes and enhance compliance. This includes a new withholding tax regulation exempting small businesses from certain tax obligations, pending ministerial approval.

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Banking Sector

CBN Governor Vows to Tackle High Inflation, Signals Prolonged High Interest Rates

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Central Bank of Nigeria - Investors King

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Dr. Olayemi Cardoso, has pledged to employ decisive measures, including maintaining high interest rates for as long as necessary.

This announcement comes amidst growing concerns over the country’s soaring inflation rates, which have posed significant economic challenges in recent times.

Speaking in an interview with the Financial Times, Cardoso emphasized the unwavering commitment of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to take whatever steps are essential to rein in inflation.

He underscored the urgency of the situation, stating that there is “every indication” that the MPC is prepared to implement stringent measures to curb the upward trajectory of inflation.

“They will continue to do what has to be done to ensure that inflation comes down,” Cardoso affirmed, highlighting the determination of the CBN to confront the inflationary pressures gripping the economy.

The CBN’s proactive stance on inflation was evident from the outset of the year, with the MPC taking bold steps to tighten monetary policy.

The committee notably raised the benchmark lending rate by 400 basis points during its February meeting, further increasing it to 24.75% in March.

Looking ahead, the next MPC meeting, scheduled for May 20-21, will likely serve as a platform for further deliberations on monetary policy adjustments in response to evolving economic conditions.

Financial analysts have projected continued tightening measures by the MPC in light of stubbornly high inflation rates. Meristem Securities, for instance, anticipates a further uptick in headline inflation for April, underscoring the persistent inflationary pressures facing the economy.

Despite the necessity of maintaining high interest rates to address inflationary concerns, Cardoso acknowledged the potential drawbacks of such measures.

He expressed hope that the prolonged high rates would not dampen investment and production activities in the economy, recognizing the need for a delicate balance in monetary policy decisions.

“Hiking interest rates obviously has had a dampening effect on the foreign exchange market, so that has begun to moderate,” Cardoso remarked, highlighting the multifaceted impacts of monetary policy adjustments.

Addressing recent fluctuations in the value of the naira, Cardoso reassured investors of the central bank’s commitment to market stability.

He emphasized the importance of returning to orthodox monetary policies, signaling a departure from previous unconventional approaches to monetary management.

As the CBN governor charts a course towards stabilizing the economy and combating inflation, his steadfast resolve underscores the gravity of the challenges facing Nigeria’s monetary authorities.

In the face of daunting inflationary pressures, the commitment to decisive action offers a glimmer of hope for achieving stability and sustainable economic growth in the country.

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Banking Sector

NDIC Managing Director Reveals: Only 25% of Customers’ Deposits Insured

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Retail banking

The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), Bello Hassan, has revealed that a mere 25% of customers’ deposits are insured by the corporation.

This revelation has sparked concerns about the vulnerability of depositors’ funds and raised questions about the adequacy of regulatory safeguards in Nigeria’s banking sector.

Speaking on the sidelines of the 2024 Sensitisation Seminar for justices of the court of appeal in Lagos, themed ‘Building Strong Depositors Confidence in Banks and Other Financial Institutions through Adjudication,’ Hassan shed light on the limited coverage of deposit insurance for bank customers.

Hassan addressed recent concerns surrounding the hike in deposit insurance coverage and emphasized the need for periodic reviews to ensure adequacy and credibility.

He explained that the decision to increase deposit insurance limits was based on various factors, including the average deposit size, inflation impact, GDP per capita, and exchange rate fluctuations.

Despite the coverage extending to approximately 98% of depositors, Hassan underscored the critical gap between the number of depositors covered and the value of deposits insured.

He stressed that while nearly all depositors are accounted for, only a quarter of the total value of deposits is protected, leaving a significant portion of funds vulnerable to risk.

“The coverage is just 25% of the total value of the deposits,” Hassan affirmed, highlighting the disparity between the number of depositors covered and the actual value of deposits within the banking system.

Moreover, Hassan addressed concerns about moral hazard, emphasizing that the presence of uninsured deposits would incentivize banks to exercise market discipline and mitigate risks associated with reckless behavior.

“The quantum of deposits not covered will enable banks to exercise market discipline and eliminate the issue of moral hazards,” Hassan stated, suggesting that the lack of full coverage serves as a safeguard against irresponsible banking practices.

However, Hassan’s revelations have prompted calls for greater regulatory oversight and transparency within Nigeria’s financial institutions. Critics argue that the current level of deposit insurance falls short of providing adequate protection for depositors, especially in the event of bank failures or financial crises.

The disclosure comes amid ongoing efforts by regulatory authorities to bolster depositor confidence and strengthen the resilience of the banking sector. With concerns mounting over the stability of Nigeria’s financial system, stakeholders are urging for proactive measures to address vulnerabilities and enhance consumer protection.

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